Deja vu.

[The Night-Owl]

Really hope we start picking up home wins. I think we look a decent hard to beat team away from home but my biggest worry is that ultimately our home form is going to be our undoing. We can't afford to drop so many points at home this season. 

 

Looking at the positives, we've mostly played sides that you would expect to be up there or thereabouts? We seem more solid defensively as a team. We seem to have a better energy, physicality and work rate among the team too.

 

On the other hand looking at the negatives, we still ain't scoring many; still not winning at home yet, still conceding late goals, still picking up numerous injuries and we don't seem to suit playing 3-5-2 especially at home. 

[The only way is S6]

3 hours ago, Lincs Owl said:

5 points from next 3 games means we wouldn't lose any of them.  That's not how Wednesday do things. 

And yet losing one & winning 2 would leave us better off. 
 

[Beighton Owl 87]

2 hours ago, Tommy Crawshaw said:

We have to be aiming at around needing 66 points to stay up. -12 = 54 pts. 

 

Yes it should be less needed but teams have been relegated with that. Also we want to be safe with a few games to go and not needing wins in the last 2 or 3 matches.

 

That would mean 58 points from the 40 games left. 15 wins, 13 draws, 12 losses.

 

Are we capable of winning 15  more matches?

 

Not unless our home form improves drastically.

Let's say 3rd bottom do get 54 points as well as us you'd expect our goal difference to be much higher. I think 51 points will he enough tbh.

[Captain Scarlett]

23 hours ago, Bulldog said:

Headlines from last nights game,

Had chances.

Unlucky.

Better team for..... (insert minutes here)

Injuries - if so and so had played we'd have won that.

Questionable tactics / substitutions.

Give him time.

Lost to a good team.

 

All of the above applies to most home games recently. The form guide for 2020 home games reads;

 

P15

W1

D5

L9

 

When we have 5 points from the next 3 games do we start to panic or give the management team more time?

 

 

 

 

 

All straight out of Monk's copy of his coaching manual

 

 

                           

[Sefton owl]

3 hours ago, Tommy Crawshaw said:

 

It won't be easy.

 

The last time we won 3 in a row was in 2016/17 under Carlos.

 

The last time we won 2 in a row was December last year.

A shocking statistic at any level if you ask me

[robswfc]

23 hours ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

If we get 5 points from the next 3 games, then we'll have 13 points from our opening 9 matches, which is 1.44 points per game. Over the course of a full season, that would see us gain 66 points, which should be more than enough to stay up, even once you deduct 12 points to leave us on 54.

 

Why would we panic about that?

Well except currently we’re got 8 from 6 games = 1.333 per game, which over a season would give us 61 points. 
61-12 = 49

 

49 will likely not be enough to stay up

[matthefish2002]

2 minutes ago, robswfc said:

Well except currently we’re got 8 from 6 games = 1.333 per game, which over a season would give us 61 points. 
61-12 = 49

 

49 will likely not be enough to stay up

 

We should in theory get better as the season goes on as all the new players gel together.

I have been encouraged by our start, think we are playing as well as can been expected with the circumstances at the club end of last season and the budget allowed.

Would give us 50% chance of stopping up now compared to 20% chance when 12 point deduction was announced.

[robswfc]

Just now, matthefish2002 said:

 

We should in theory get better as the season goes on as all the new players gel together.

I have been encouraged by our start, think we are playing as well as can been expected with the circumstances at the club end of last season and the budget allowed.

Would give us 50% chance of stopping up now compared to 20% chance when 12 point deduction was announced.

Yeah I agree with that. If we improve our home form we should be ok. Would like at least 6 points from next 3

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

5 minutes ago, robswfc said:

Well except currently we’re got 8 from 6 games = 1.333 per game, which over a season would give us 61 points. 
61-12 = 49

 

49 will likely not be enough to stay up

 

Why would 49 points be unlikely to keep us up?

 

The average points needed to stay up in this division is 46. Since the Championship started 16 seasons ago, 49 points would have been enough to stay up in 13 of those seasons.

[Hougoumont]

On 22/10/2020 at 15:32, Bulldog said:

Headlines from last nights game,

Had chances.

Unlucky.

Better team for..... (insert minutes here)

Injuries - if so and so had played we'd have won that.

Questionable tactics / substitutions.

Give him time.

Lost to a good team.

 

All of the above applies to most home games recently. The form guide for 2020 home games reads;

 

P15

W1

D5

L9

 

When we have 5 points from the next 3 games do we start to panic or give the management team more time?

 

Who's this "we" you speak of...as if you have any say in the Matter.

On 22/10/2020 at 15:32, Bulldog said:

 

 

 

 

[room0035]

8 hours ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

By the end of November, we'll have played 14 games.

 

In the past 5 seasons, the average needed to be out of the bottom three after 14 games is 13 points.

 

Obviously with our points deduction, we'll need 25 points to achieve that.

 

So that's 1.79 points per game, or nigh-on top-two form.

 

Do you really believe that a failure to get our squad hitting top-two form should be a sackable offence?

So 25 points out of a possible 42.

 

He has been here a year and the club continue to slide back wards. He has turn good players into out casts. The latest on the list now appearing to be Borner.

 

The home form is apauling, the team take 1 step forward and 3 back but let's keep supporting him because it's not his fault. He only picks the team, the tactics, the players.

 

 

[debram]

On 22/10/2020 at 15:32, Bulldog said:

Headlines from last nights game,

Had chances.

Unlucky.

Better team for..... (insert minutes here)

Injuries - if so and so had played we'd have won that.

Questionable tactics / substitutions.

Give him time.

Lost to a good team.

 

All of the above applies to most home games recently. The form guide for 2020 home games reads;

 

P15

W1

D5

L9

 

When we have 5 points from the next 3 games do we start to panic or give the management team more time?

 

 

 

 Time we dont have, monk needs to come up with the goods, especially next 3 games, i have my doubts about his skills, talks a good game but we can all do that.

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

23 minutes ago, room0035 said:

So 25 points out of a possible 42.

 

He has been here a year and the club continue to slide back wards. He has turn good players into out casts. The latest on the list now appearing to be Borner.

 

The home form is apauling, the team take 1 step forward and 3 back but let's keep supporting him because it's not his fault. He only picks the team, the tactics, the players.

 

That doesn't really answer my question: do you really believe that a failure to get our squad hitting top-two form should be a sackable offence?

[robswfc]

6 hours ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

Why would 49 points be unlikely to keep us up?

 

The average points needed to stay up in this division is 46. Since the Championship started 16 seasons ago, 49 points would have been enough to stay up in 13 of those seasons.

alright but it’s pretty damn close to the edge. IMO we need to do slightly better than we’ve done so far. It’s been an ok start to the season

[Lawrie’s Left Peg]

On 22/10/2020 at 16:27, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

If we get 5 points from the next 3 games, then we'll have 13 points from our opening 9 matches, which is 1.44 points per game. Over the course of a full season, that would see us gain 66 points, which should be more than enough to stay up, even once you deduct 12 points to leave us on 54.

 

Why would we panic about that?

Your maths are spot on but you’re not considering the quality of opposition. If we are only able to average 1.44 points having played Cardiff, Birmingham, Rotherham, Wycombe and Luton then we are unlikely to average that total over a season. Also, given our 12 point deficit then games against our closest relegation rivals are crucial ie should we lose twice to Wycombe, Rotherham and, say Barnsley we would have to win 18 points more than them over the rest of the season. Tall order. 

[Athelwulf]

13 hours ago, mcmigo said:

Carlos season 3 - on course for mid table

Jos - mid table

Bruce - mid table

Monk - mid table.

Gray  - mid table

 

Apart from the two seasons we spent a fortune and got to the play offs, we have finished mid table under 4 different managers.  

 

 

 

 

 

Starting with Gray, that team was relegation fodder.

 

It was a major achievement keeping us up.

 

When we finished mid-table next season we were probably half a dozen places higher than we should have been.

 

Gray was, based on what he had to work with, probably our most successful manager points-wise.

 

Bruce came in mid-season, so was hampered by the results already gleaned by Jos before his arrival.

 

Jos was simply a terrible choice.

 

However, in his first half season he was building on Carlos' poor results.

 

In his second season he attempted to implement a brand of football which was totally unsuitable to this league and our team.

 

Carlos' third season was the result of two play-off defeats.

 

The players had lost confidence in him, were listless, and he should have gone after the shoot-out.

 

So, in summary.

 

(1) Chansiri should never have sacked Gray.

 

(2) should have sacked Carlos after the play-off defeat to 'Udders, then we probably could have had a third shot at promotion.

 

(3) should never have appointed Jostle in the first place.

 

(4) should have sacked Monk this summer

 

The hiring and firing of managers isn't Channers' strongest point.

 

 

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

7 hours ago, Lawrie’s Left Peg said:

Your maths are spot on but you’re not considering the quality of opposition. If we are only able to average 1.44 points having played Cardiff, Birmingham, Rotherham, Wycombe and Luton then we are unlikely to average that total over a season. Also, given our 12 point deficit then games against our closest relegation rivals are crucial ie should we lose twice to Wycombe, Rotherham and, say Barnsley we would have to win 18 points more than them over the rest of the season. Tall order. 

 

If we're averaging 1.44 points after the next three games, then we'll also be averaging 1.44 games having played Watford, Brentford, Bristol City, and Cardiff (who were in the playoffs last season, so I don't know why you're grouping them with the supposed weaker teams). 

 

If we lose twice to all of those teams this season, then we won't have 1.44 points per game after our next three games, will we? The OP is asking whether we should panic if we win one and draw two of our next three matches, so in that scenario we'd beat one rival and draw with two others.

 

And I still don't think we should panic, no.

[Django]

I think 5 points is about right for our next 3 games. I’m not really expecting any more tbh 

[theowlsman]

Be reyt

[steelcityowlsfan]

On 22/10/2020 at 15:32, Bulldog said:

Headlines from last nights game,

Had chances.

Unlucky.

Better team for..... (insert minutes here)

Injuries - if so and so had played we'd have won that.

Questionable tactics / substitutions.

Give him time.

Lost to a good team.

 

All of the above applies to most home games recently. The form guide for 2020 home games reads;

 

P15

W1

D5

L9

 

When we have 5 points from the next 3 games do we start to panic or give the management team more time?

 

 

 

I’ve a feeling I’ve read this before.