Deja vu.

[Tommy Crawshaw]

18 hours ago, mcmigo said:

We currently have mid table form.  It comes a no shock.  Our last 3 seasons we have been mid table.  Our squad budget I suspect is about mid table.  Our manager has a great record of mid table form in the Championship and Premier League.

 

We will almost certainly finish mid table, minus 12 points.  If we go down, it isnt down to our mid table playing staff. It because of the 12 point deduction.

 

 

 

 

 

Trouble is we need near enough play off form to stay up.

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

1 hour ago, room0035 said:

I said at the start of the season Monk has 10 games to get positive or he should be gone, End of November needs to be out of bottom 3 or he should be gone.

 

Reason is simple we have 8 games in December and if the teams struggling a new manager bounce could get us well and truly out of the bottom 3.

 

By the end of November, we'll have played 14 games.

 

In the past 5 seasons, the average needed to be out of the bottom three after 14 games is 13 points.

 

Obviously with our points deduction, we'll need 25 points to achieve that.

 

So that's 1.79 points per game, or nigh-on top-two form.

 

Do you really believe that a failure to get our squad hitting top-two form should be a sackable offence?

[StudentOwl]

1 minute ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

By the end of November, we'll have played 14 games.

 

In the past 5 seasons, the average needed to be out of the bottom three after 14 games is 13 points.

 

Obviously with our points deduction, we'll need 25 points to achieve that.

 

So that's 1.79 points per game, or nigh-on top-two form.

 

Do you really believe that a failure to get our squad hitting top-two form should be a sackable offence?

Aye, ridonculous expectations.

 

I think if we're out of the bottom one come the end of November, we can hopefully look forward to climbing the other two necessary places over the next 4/5 months.

[OwlerIT]

1 hour ago, Lincs Owl said:

5 points from next 3 games means we wouldn't lose any of them.  That's not how Wednesday do things. 

Would rather win two and lose one

 

[Morepork]

It’s a weird feeling. All the positives being stated by posters are legitimate. Equally, the warning signs are there.

 

Its on a knife edge at the moment and the reality is it’ll probably stay that way.

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

6 minutes ago, Tommy Crawshaw said:

Trouble is we need near enough play off form to stay up.

 

1.4 points per game would see us stay up in all but the most extreme of Championship seasons, finishing six points above the average relegation mark. 

 

The average form required to finish 6th is 1.57 points per game, which might not seem like a big jump from the above, but is the difference between the playoff teams and Derby, Blackburn and Bristol City last season, or us in 2018-19.

 

It's going to be difficult either way, but we don't need to panic by thinking it's harder than it already is.

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

4 minutes ago, Morepork said:

It’s a weird feeling. All the positives being stated by posters are legitimate. Equally, the warning signs are there.

 

Its on a knife edge at the moment and the reality is it’ll probably stay that way.

 

Exactly.

 

It's going to  be a long, hard season. A twelve point deduction isn't easy to overcome and leaves us very little margin for error. As long as we stay on or around the 1.4 points per game mark, we should be there or thereabouts when it matters.

 

The majority of these interim targets being set by posters on here who don't seem to have applied even the tiniest slither of logic, never mind reached for a calculator, before proclaiming the grounds on which our manager should be sacked, are laughably misguided.

[striker]

Generally this season we've had some consistency in performance, picked up points and have potential to be in plus points by the end of October.

 

Yes, performance levels dropped slightly against a very good Brentford team and we could have done better,  yet still competitive. But the improvement for me is that we would have got battered in such a game  last season. 

 

The true test is the next 3 games, all winnable but not foregone conclusions by any means. My concern is that we generally don't do well without rest between games, although true for the opposition too and being at home, so not travelling should help. Hopefully Lees, Iorfa and Brown are available, which I think could make the difference. 

[Tommy Crawshaw]

We have to be aiming at around needing 66 points to stay up. -12 = 54 pts. 

 

Yes it should be less needed but teams have been relegated with that. Also we want to be safe with a few games to go and not needing wins in the last 2 or 3 matches.

 

That would mean 58 points from the 40 games left. 15 wins, 13 draws, 12 losses.

 

Are we capable of winning 15  more matches?

 

Not unless our home form improves drastically.

[Tommy Crawshaw]

19 hours ago, Sefton owl said:

Lets have it right, we should be winning all 3 against Luton wycombe and Rotherham and I think we will get more than 5 points on the basis of what I’ve seen from the team so far this season.

 

It won't be easy.

 

The last time we won 3 in a row was in 2016/17 under Carlos.

 

The last time we won 2 in a row was December last year.

[mcmigo]

34 minutes ago, Tommy Crawshaw said:

 

Trouble is we need near enough play off form to stay up.

I agree.  I have said all along , and in the ‘ will we stay up thread ‘ , that we will probably be relegated this season.  If we stay up it will be a tremendous achievement by the players and management.

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

3 minutes ago, Tommy Crawshaw said:

We have to be aiming at around needing 66 points to stay up. -12 = 54 pts. 

 

Yes it should be less needed but teams have been relegated with that. Also we want to be safe with a few games to go and not needing wins in the last 2 or 3 matches.

 

That would mean 58 points from the 40 games left. 15 wins, 13 draws, 12 losses.

 

Are we capable of winning 15  more matches?

 

Not unless our home form improves drastically.

 

In an ideal world, definitely. And we want to be safe with a few games to go, of course. 

 

In our position though, beggars can't be choosers. 46 points is the average needed to stay up in the Championship. If we can average 1.4 points per game, then we'd be very unlucky to get relegated - it would only have seen a team relegated twice in the 16 seasons since the Championship started.

 

If we stay up on the final day of the season, then I'll take it.

 

I just don't look at our squad and expect us to be stronger than the likes of Derby, Bristol City or Blackburn were last season.

 

[modboy]

Late recruitment every summer costs us those few extra points .

[matthefish2002]

2 hours ago, room0035 said:

I said at the start of the season Monk has 10 games to get positive or he should be gone, End of November needs to be out of bottom 3 or he should be gone.

 

Reason is simple we have 8 games in December and if the teams struggling a new manager bounce could get us well and truly out of the bottom 3.

 

We need to be out of the bottom 3 in May. 

We are on course to do that, just about.
Think Monk since end of last season has done well.
 

[Nut]

34 minutes ago, OwlerIT said:

Would rather win two and lose one

 

Five points from the next three games could be better than six at the end of the season as we'd deprive a rival of an extra two points. Plus gaining six would mean we'd lose a game to one of the relegation favourites. This site would explode. 

[SouthernOwl24]

Had a difficult start of who we have played overall I think. Cardiff, Watford, Bristol City and Brentford in opening six games. We returned 4 points from 12 against tough opposition.  This return would only be acceptable if we beat teams like Rotherham, Wycombe and Luton. 

 

Nothing less than 7 points in next three would mean we need to improve against the better opposition. 

 

Cant have excuses like Brentford are good so we were meant to lose but say on the other hand Luton will be up for the fight so don't expect the points etc. We have to pick them up from somewhere. 

[WalthamOwl]

18 minutes ago, SouthernOwl24 said:

Had a difficult start of who we have played overall I think. Cardiff, Watford, Bristol City and Brentford in opening six games. We returned 4 points from 12 against tough opposition.  This return would only be acceptable if we beat teams like Rotherham, Wycombe and Luton. 

 

Nothing less than 7 points in next three would mean we need to improve against the better opposition. 

 

Cant have excuses like Brentford are good so we were meant to lose but say on the other hand Luton will be up for the fight so don't expect the points etc. We have to pick them up from somewhere. 

like you say we have had some tough games at the beginning of this season. We now go in to 3 very winnable games against teams you would expect us to have the quality to get a decent amount of points from. 

[bobowl]

Monk knows that when the fans are let back in the ground he's history, this pandemic has been great for him.

[WalthamOwl]

1 minute ago, bobowl said:

Monk knows that when the fans are let back in the ground he's history, this pandemic has been great for him.

Yes I do believe the pandemic saved his job. 

[SouthernOwl24]

14 minutes ago, WalthamOwl said:

like you say we have had some tough games at the beginning of this season. We now go in to 3 very winnable games against teams you would expect us to have the quality to get a decent amount of points from. 

The one positive I have from games so far is we seem to know/ understand the task at hand and are up for the fight. We don't have the quality but mentally we are strong.

 

We now go into three games where they and us will need this determination/ desire to win over quality. If we cannot win and show the determination and desire to win these we will be in a very worrying place and Monk will have ultimately failed this siege mentality he is trying to create. If we win these and get the 7+ points Monk will proved he can create the right atmosphere. These 3 games are arguably more important than opening 6 as these are our relegation contenders.

 

As you said fans will have the high expectation as we should be chomping at the bit to get right at the opposition.