Factual reason to fully back Garry Monk to get us safely out of the -12 deduction

[upperwinngardensowl]

I was hoping that would be surprisingly good news. 

Then I read it.

It wasnt. 

[Spookone]

1 hour ago, Plonk said:

I thought this was going to be a positive thread. Jesus. 

Come on now, it's Owlstalk, what were you thinking?

[Swiss Toni]

So a quarter of the season to get to zero, then how long to get out of the bottom 3 I wonder?!

[GLOwl]

33 minutes ago, swissmess said:

Its easy for all the gloomsters and doomsters to write of the season before its started. Why not have some faith in your team. Don't keep knocking SWFC, take some pride and have some faith that in taking back control of our team, despite the reduction, Monk can lead us to a better future in the sunlit uplands of the Premier League. I am convinced that by September, Monk and the managment  team, will have in place a world beating defence, midfield and attack. The management team have done a great job, whilst  faced with new challenges. The rest of the world gazes at our progress with astonishment. Since the difficulties began our manager has thrown a protective ring around our goal. We released the ball from defence so that the most important element, the defence was not overwhelmed. We have been successful in that strategy. We are all in this together.

Here here!

Very Churchillian btw

Edited August 11, 2020 by GLOwl
Spelling errors

[striker]

27 minutes ago, Sticky Micky said:

The fact is we 

Had 2 wins in 22 games 

 

Under any other chairman monk have been given the boot

While I agree with your reasoning, there are mitigating factors for Monk, not least the squad which has been broken for years, inherited backroom team and the off field issues. 

 

Maybe DC saw Monk in a different light, the manager winning 11 points in his first 6 games, which at almost 2 points a game is promotion form.

 

It will be an interesting start to the new season for sure, points to make up and a manager with low levels of goodwill from the fanbase due to recent results.  A lot hangs on recruitment to give us all a lift and optimism going into the season. 

[GLOwl]

19 minutes ago, Captain Scarlett said:

Lets not judge him on the first few games or the first half of the season or the whole season. Let's  look at his entire history of management. Is that fair you think ?

 

Monk's Record:

 

 

So out of a possible 777 points ( 259 x 3 ) he managed to accumulate  358 in his managerial career to date.

That's just over 1.38 points a game.

 

Is that average for a manager ?.......well let's compare with two other managers brought in by Championship clubs.

 

Bielsa's Record:

 

 

Just over 1.65 points per game. 

 

 

Let's look closer to home shall we.

 

Wilder's Record:

 

 

Just over 1.57 points per game.

 

 

Monk is way out of his depth as a manager. He is just the patsy, the fall guy.  He was given the job probably because no one else wanted to work with Chansiri 

and our setup.  And whilst our deadly neighbours have found success and flourished we are going NOWHERE.

 

The soon he leaves the better along with our owner.

Looking at those stats, both bielsa and wilder had points per game very similar to monks at some point in their careers.

Thats the problem with stats.

Let's see how he does with his pre-season and some of his own players. Then we can fully judge him.

[Rev Owl]

18 minutes ago, Captain Scarlett said:

Lets not judge him on the first few games or the first half of the season or the whole season. Let's  look at his entire history of management. Is that fair you think ?

 

Monk's Record:

 

 

So out of a possible 777 points ( 259 x 3 ) he managed to accumulate  358 in his managerial career to date.

That's just over 1.38 points a game.

 

Is that average for a manager ?.......well let's compare with two other managers brought in by Championship clubs.

 

Bielsa's Record:

 

 

Just over 1.65 points per game. 

 

 

Let's look closer to home shall we.

 

Wilder's Record:

 

 

Just over 1.57 points per game.

 

 

Monk is way out of his depth as a manager. He is just the patsy, the fall guy.  He was given the job probably because no one else wanted to work with Chansiri 

and our setup.  And whilst our deadly neighbours have found success and flourished we are going NOWHERE.

 

The soon he leaves the better along with our owner.

It's all a bit apples and oranges but if you look at Monk's first 259 games in charge and Bielsa's first 259 games my quick mental arithmetic gives Bielsa 6 more wins. 

Wilder's first 259 are buried in his first job where he managed 312 games for a 38% win ratio.

If managers get better as they go or more likely some club situations suit them better it's only fair to compare same number of games managed not whole careers wilder has managed around 3.5x number of games and Bielsa about 2.5x number of games as Monk.

In this case there's not a lot between them at the start of their careers.

[Guest]

33 minutes ago, striker said:

My thoughts too, clear DC is keeping him, so better to get behind the manager and the club, than try to undermine.

 

 

Agreed, hes here for the foreseeable future, its getting a bit boring now isn't it every thread ends up turning into a anti Chansiri or anti Monk thread

[Tommy Crawshaw]

We picked up 12 points in the last 15 games of last season.

 

If we carry on in the same form next season and are on zero points after 15 games, to have a chance of staying up we would need promotion form in the remaining 31 games.

 

I wonder how long  those in the pro Monk camp would carry on supporting him if we have a bad start to the season. 

 

Say we didn't win a game in the first 6 and are  something like 15 points adrift of the next team.

 

[keepitsteel89]

One coach and a GK coach is worse than my old Sunday league team set up thats whats worrying me still!

[Inspector Lestrade]

[ZicoSterland2]

2 hours ago, @owlstalk said:

 

So a quarter of games gone and were on 0 or 1 point. Thats 11 games which would mean were heading for 52 points -12=40. Sadly if thats a reason to back him he must have very little to offer us apart from relegation. 

[Blatter]

50 points is usually enough to stay in the Championship, therefore 62 needed to cancel the deduction.

Monk’s win record as a manager is around 40%. There are 138 points at stake over the season. 40% of 138 is 55. 
If Monk can maintain his stats he needs 8 draws through the season to be safe. I reckon that’s quite a normal return of draws from 46 games.

 

On the face of it not an impossible task with Monk at the Helm, but factor in the need to recruit so many new players and the lack of coaching resources it’s going to take more that a few good games at the start of the season. It needs a concerted effort throughout starting right now on the recruitment front.
 

[Tommy Crawshaw]

4 minutes ago, Dagmeister's Shadow said:

........whereas I wonder how long it would take for the anti Monk camp to be converted if we had a great start to the season with a rebuilt and younger squad?

 

If we got 12 points in first the 6 games that might be the beginnings of converting me.

 

But 1 win at home in our last 12 home games and 6 goals scored doesn't fill me with confidence.

 

Anyway are you going to answer my question. How long will you give him if we start badly?

[alanharper]

2 hours ago, @owlstalk said:

 

 

Sorry, but is this supposed to be a positive sign?

 

Surely it would be more accurately worded as "If this trend continues SWFC won't be out of the minus points until it's a quarter of the way through". 

 

As others have said, this form over a season with the -12 will see us relegated by a distance.  

 

 

[Hookowl]

21 minutes ago, Tommy Crawshaw said:

We picked up 12 points in the last 15 games of last season.

 

If we carry on in the same form next season and are on zero points after 15 games, to have a chance of staying up we would need promotion form in the remaining 31 games.

 

I wonder how long  those in the pro Monk camp would carry on supporting him if we have a bad start to the season. 

 

Say we didn't win a game in the first 6 and are  something like 15 points adrift of the next team.

 

 

That's a what if the same as what if we win our first six games is a what if.

So my what if is...........................what if we see how we get on with transfers and our first games before getting despondent about something unknown that we can't alter anyway.

[Inspector Lestrade]

All this depends on the players we sign and so far nothing is inspiring me that quality signings are going to take place.

 

If you have a weak squad it doesn't matter how good your manager is.

[@owlstalk]

 

Some reyt whingers in this thread

Cheer up - it's sunny!

[alanharper]

2 minutes ago, Blatter said:

50 points is usually enough to stay in the Championship, therefore 62 needed to cancel the deduction.

Monk’s win record as a manager is around 40%. There are 138 points at stake over the season. 40% of 138 is 55. 
If Monk can maintain his stats he needs 8 draws through the season to be safe. I reckon that’s quite a normal return of draws from 46 games.

 

 

But what's his win record as SWFC manager though?

 

Including his record from expensively assembled Swansea, Leeds and Boro teams is no indication that he'll sustain a similar record here. 

[ZicoSterland2]

1 minute ago, Inspector Lestrade said:

All this depends on the players we sign and so far nothing is inspiring me that quality signings are going to take place.

 

If you have a weak squad it doesn't matter how good your manager is.

And if you have a weak manager and a weak squad its a recipe for disaster.