COVID Chaos

[Bob]

If you have had two jabs and ignore the booster, you might as well have not bothered about the first two. Protection from Covid, especially Omnicron, is very low after a few months, so to ignore the booster is asking for trouble.

 

Get the booster, you know it makes sense.

[bradowl]

12 hours ago, TodwickOwl said:

42 players tested positive in the Premier League - a record for a single week.

 

Dont know if we hear cases for the rest of the leagues - but it’s likely similar figures, can we expect a break from football very soon?
 

Fixtures are coming thick and fast and cases rising exponentially - will they implement other measures ie reduced capacities, no fans? 
 

Can only see this getting worse before it gets better now until March/April 

I thought it was 42 positive cases but a number of these were club staff. 

[prowl]

3 hours ago, @owlstalk said:

 

No it's not disappeared but Omicron could take over for sure

@StudentOwl has explained it really well in the dressing room section in the Covid thread


"I don't think that there is any doubt that Omicron will be the 'end of Covid' in terms of this is exactly the type of strain that out-competes the seemingly more harmful Delta and offers widespread immunity without a horrific death toll. I said I'd await the data before jumping to conclusions - I've checked the data in the tweet LondonOwl shared and it tallies with my early impressions - tentatively, and hopefully not prematurely, the characteristics of this strain are ideal for transitioning out of harmful pandemic to bothersome-but-not-crippling endemic.

 

The issue for us in the Northern Hemisphere at least is that it has arrived in our winter, and the more worrisome prospect for us UK-based people is it comes to a health service that looks like its stepping out of the ring after 9 rounds with Mike Tyson. I'll say it again for about the third time in as many days, risk mitigation needs to be the consideration. 

 

Once we are past winter though, I think the UK will be in a really good spot - hopefully the rest of the world (particularly those with a relatively much lower vaccination rate) is too. For all the months of people saying "we need to let the virus rip through the population for induced immunity" while Delta has been claiming lots of lives... this variant is perhaps the one where we really do need to do just that. All we need to do is ensure the vulnerable are protected and the healthcare system are in a good place to manage the effects of that. 

 

Looking forward to another week of data from SA and a few other gathered points from countries in the Northern Hemisphere - particularly Western Europe - to paint a clearer picture, but that's tentatively where I think we're at. If the vaccine was the end of the beginning, this is the beginning of the end. "

It looks that way but with the proviso that it's too early to tell. Data out of South Africa indicates omicron is milder but their population has massive levels of immunity from previous infections and their population is much younger. In the UK most of our immunity is from vaccines which target the spike protein. Omicron has a lot of changes to the spike protein which is why vaccines aren't as effective, natural immunity antibodies target other proteins as well as the spike proteins. Our population is also older.

 

Realistically we've only known about omicron for 2 weeks. Think about that, it take 5 days after infection before you show symptoms, you can them get sick for a week to 10 days before feeling better. sometime after that you may suffer a relapse and could need hospital treatment. The early infections are only now starting to get to that stage so it's hardly surprising there are very few hospital admissions.

 

As far as vaccines are concerned 2x Pfizer doses gives you about 60-70% protection against Delta but only 22.5% protection against Omicron, Astra Zeneca provides even less. The booster increases this to about 70%.

 

Hopefully omicron will not be severe but we can't be sure of anything yet. Get boosted and be careful until we understand this variant. It is super infectious, we could be getting 500,00 infections a day by new year, possibly more. If even half of 1% need hospitalisation the thospitals will be swamped.

 

It could be the end of this epidemic but it looks like it will be rough before it gets better.

[OxonOwl]

 

 

 

 

Quote

I don't think that there is any doubt that Omicron will be the 'end of Covid' in terms of this is exactly the type of strain that out-competes the seemingly more harmful Delta and offers widespread immunity without a horrific death toll.

 

 

The trouble with that is that with very high numbers of cases there are greater possibilities of more variants.

 

We may get one that is very transmissible AND deadly.

 

 

As has been said, we don't really know how bad Omicron is yet.

 

 

[Kew Owl]

Brentford’s game against Man Ure is off - expect more games to be off in the coming days 

[StudentOwl]

17 minutes ago, prowl said:

It looks that way but with the proviso that it's too early to tell. Data out of South Africa indicates omicron is milder but their population has massive levels of immunity from previous infections and their population is much younger. In the UK most of our immunity is from vaccines which target the spike protein. Omicron has a lot of changes to the spike protein which is why vaccines aren't as effective, natural immunity antibodies target other proteins as well as the spike proteins.

The vaccines were developed using a region of the spike protein that is highly conserved and resistant to mutation. This region is conserved in Omicron.

 

South Africa has officially recorded c. 3.2 million cases in a population of c. 59 million - ~5.5% of the population. The UK has officially recorded c.11 million cases in a population of c. 67 million - ~16% of the population.

 

The narrative you have shared that implies SA has greater levels of 'natural immunity' is false. The implication that the vaccine targets the spike protein and the changes observed in the spike protein will render the vaccine dramatically less efficable is only half the story, though they will be less efficable.

26 minutes ago, prowl said:

 

As far as vaccines are concerned 2x Pfizer doses gives you about 60-70% protection against Delta but only 22.5% protection against Omicron, Astra Zeneca provides even less. The booster increases this to about 70%.

 

 

 

 

HP sauce?

 

17 minutes ago, OxonOwl said:

 

We may get one that is very transmissible AND deadly.

 

Possible, but less likely than not.

[Nero]

Latest data out of SA. Interesting stuff. Suggests as per this threads comments, incredibly quick spread of Omicron, somewhat reduced symptoms (still dangerous to some), lower efficiency of two jabs (booster required to bring up to 70pc protection). Also suggests 70pc of the SA population have had Covid yet still catch new strain.

 

Effect on UK may be different due to age profile, temperature, more vaccd etc.

 

BREAKING [Thread]: 1. SA’s first real-world data on #Pfizer’s #COVID19 jab’s protection @ #Omicron infection + hospitalisation via @Discovery_SA + @MRCza

Note: This is data from the 1st 3 weeks of the outbreak, so it might change - regard it as preliminary real-world data https://t.co/7sfPzarZlX

Edited December 14, 2021 by Nero

[OxonOwl]

1 minute ago, toppOwl said:

 

When a virus mutates its more likely to get weaker and be less dangerous not more deadly.

 

Oh yes. There are lots and lots of mutations and the vast majority are variants that are less effective (at being a virus) than the dominant strain.

 

There are still a few that come along that are more effective as we have seen Kent, Delta and now Omicron. They do happen.

 

The more cases, the more mutations.

 

 

As Student says my suggestion is probably fairly unlikely, but you never know

 

 

 

[sheffsteel]

6 hours ago, FinnishOwl said:

Let's just hope the new strain only causes mild, more or less influenza-like symptoms so we'll get over it much faster. The clubs probably cannot take another shutdown.

The data coming out of South Africa is very promising to date.

 

Their infections are through the roof, its totally taken over from the Delta variant and is much more contagious

however illness is very mild for most people, with only very small increases in hospitalisations and hardly any deaths.

 

Some respected scientists are even saying Omicron could be the way out…

where almost everyone catches a weak version and develop natural immunity.

 

I can understand any government being cautious preparing for the worse case scenario

Apparently we’ll have UK based data regards the danger in 2 weeks…..but this new variant might be great news.

[Portia]

5 hours ago, Wednesday_Jack said:

so that means the Delta variant as just disappeared?? 
 

Seriously it’s a genuine question

Delta lost a lot of form and results were getting consistantly poorer until it was finally sacked by the gov board. The boards new foreign appointment in omricon though is already under pressure with only 1 UK death so far this season. The gov board are under mounting pressure from the fans who anticipated another full lockdown following the success of last season. 

[Big Jack]

1 hour ago, prowl said:

It looks that way but with the proviso that it's too early to tell. Data out of South Africa indicates omicron is milder but their population has massive levels of immunity from previous infections and their population is much younger. In the UK most of our immunity is from vaccines which target the spike protein. Omicron has a lot of changes to the spike protein which is why vaccines aren't as effective, natural immunity antibodies target other proteins as well as the spike proteins. Our population is also older.

 

Realistically we've only known about omicron for 2 weeks. Think about that, it take 5 days after infection before you show symptoms, you can them get sick for a week to 10 days before feeling better. sometime after that you may suffer a relapse and could need hospital treatment. The early infections are only now starting to get to that stage so it's hardly surprising there are very few hospital admissions.

 

As far as vaccines are concerned 2x Pfizer doses gives you about 60-70% protection against Delta but only 22.5% protection against Omicron, Astra Zeneca provides even less. The booster increases this to about 70%.

 

Hopefully omicron will not be severe but we can't be sure of anything yet. Get boosted and be careful until we understand this variant. It is super infectious, we could be getting 500,00 infections a day by new year, possibly more. If even half of 1% need hospitalisation the thospitals will be swamped.

 

It could be the end of this epidemic but it looks like it will be rough before it gets better.

The end of this pandemic will only come about when rich countries recognise its a global pandemic and ensure vaccines are equally distributed across the globe. We would be in a far stronger position if this had happened at the outset, rather than vaccine nationalism.

[Stripes or die]

14 hours ago, The coach said:

Even if they aren’t ‘stopped’....creating all this hassle just to get in a football ground is bad news..there’l be quite a few who just think f it...il stay at home

What hassle? Showing your Covid vaccination status/pass? Not much of a hassle really is it?

[TodwickOwl]

22 minutes ago, Stripes or die said:

What hassle? Showing your Covid vaccination status/pass? Not much of a hassle really is it?

 

Have you got your ticket? Yes

Have you got your Vaccine Passport? Yes

 

In you go.

 

MASSIVE hassle......

[Maddogbob]

The only hassle is the ones being created in people's heads.

[David-T]

7 hours ago, Manwë said:

Two jabs isn't enough, hence the booster uptakes, so a passport to venues if you've only had two jabs seems a little bit stupid.

 

Why should those who have had their booster be sat anywhere near those irresponsible people who have only had two?   Makes me sick to the stomach that there are people around who've only had two jabs.  Absolute idiots.  Restrict the doublers freedoms to protect the triplers.

 

Time to save the NHS and stop the double jabbed from any social venue, from attending work (their cost), from public transport, from pubs and cafes, and from accessing NHS treatments.   The NHS shouldn't shoulder the burden because of the irresponsibility of these two-jabbers.

 

Trust in Boris.  

 

Yours, 

 

Triple jabbed..

 

I would expect that anyone who has had 2 jabs will get the booster as soon as they can. 

[Stripes or die]

21 minutes ago, TodwickOwl said:

 

Have you got your ticket? Yes

Have you got your Vaccine Passport? Yes

 

In you go.

 

MASSIVE hassle......

If that's your idea of hassle pal then I would stay at home in a darkened room. Deary me

[beano]

Don't we have a pending points deduction if we don't pay wages at any point before Jan?

 

It would be just our luck for football to shut down and these wages not get paid a couple of weeks before the deadline.

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

7 minutes ago, Stripes or die said:

If that's your idea of hassle pal then I would stay at home in a darkened room. Deary me

 

I'm pretty sure it was his idea of sarcasm, dude.

 

[TheGreatNebber]

Games having to go back to being played behind closed doors would be a disaster both for football finances in general, Wednesday in particular (given we're still paying back money from the season before last), and of course for fans. Unfortunately I can see problems at Hillsborough on Saturday with the need to check vaccine passports but I'm hopeful people will be sensible, work with the club and try and do the best they can to avoid us having to move to more extreme measures. 

 

The 2019/20 League 1 season didn't even conclude properly with the final positions being decided on a points-per-game basis and only the play-off games being played behind closed doors. Wycombe were the beneficiary as they won the play-off final despite being outside the top 6 when the season ended; they had a game in hand but there was no guarantee that they would have won it. It just sounds like such a Wednesday thing that we'll get ourselves into the top 6 on Saturday and then be demoted out of it on PPG and end up missing out. 

[nevthelodgemoorowl]

6 hours ago, @owlstalk said:

 

No it's not disappeared but Omicron could take over for sure

@StudentOwl has explained it really well in the dressing room section in the Covid thread


"I don't think that there is any doubt that Omicron will be the 'end of Covid' in terms of this is exactly the type of strain that out-competes the seemingly more harmful Delta and offers widespread immunity without a horrific death toll. I said I'd await the data before jumping to conclusions - I've checked the data in the tweet LondonOwl shared and it tallies with my early impressions - tentatively, and hopefully not prematurely, the characteristics of this strain are ideal for transitioning out of harmful pandemic to bothersome-but-not-crippling endemic.

 

The issue for us in the Northern Hemisphere at least is that it has arrived in our winter, and the more worrisome prospect for us UK-based people is it comes to a health service that looks like its stepping out of the ring after 9 rounds with Mike Tyson. I'll say it again for about the third time in as many days, risk mitigation needs to be the consideration. 

 

Once we are past winter though, I think the UK will be in a really good spot - hopefully the rest of the world (particularly those with a relatively much lower vaccination rate) is too. For all the months of people saying "we need to let the virus rip through the population for induced immunity" while Delta has been claiming lots of lives... this variant is perhaps the one where we really do need to do just that. All we need to do is ensure the vulnerable are protected and the healthcare system are in a good place to manage the effects of that. 

 

Looking forward to another week of data from SA and a few other gathered points from countries in the Northern Hemisphere - particularly Western Europe - to paint a clearer picture, but that's tentatively where I think we're at. If the vaccine was the end of the beginning, this is the beginning of the end. "

 

Excellent piece, just what came in as a News flash about 3-30 this am. 200% more contagion and 70% less deadly (don't quote me on figures) but the SA science immunology masters were very upbeat about their presentation.