The real reason crowds are down (and its not prices)

[Nero]

There is a frequent argument on Owlstalk that the high cost of tickets are the cause of the downturn in crowd numbers. Everyone's entitled to an opinion but  I thought I would look at if there is any evidence as to why crowds fall and rise at Hillsborough.

Now I know that many on Owlstalk won’t like this but…… its fairly clear and obvious that the driver of crowd numbers is not price. It’s a bit bleeding obvious but its where the team finished the season before that determines the size of the crowd the next season.

Evidence

In 2011/12 the team went up 13 places – crowd went up 13% in 2012/13

In 2012/13 the team finished down 16 places lower (in a higher league) – crowd went down 12% in 2013/14

In 2013/14 the team went up 2 places - crowd went up 4% in 2014/15

In 2014/15 the team went up 3 places - crowd went up 3% in 2015/16

In 2015/16 the team went up 9 places (play off final) - crowd went up 20% in 2016/17

In 2016/17 the team went down 2 places (play off semi) - crowd down 4% in 2017/18

In 2017/18 the team went down 9 places – crowd down ? in 2018/19

Its amazingly consistent. It’s fairly obvious that season ticket sales are affected by previous years and that ‘walk ups’ (or more realistically ‘walk away’ fans) don’t come back quickly, hence in Carlos first year of the play off final the crowd only rose by 3%.

I know that this won’t end the debate because price is a real thing for a minority of those who have stopped going and it’s an emotional thing and our prices are high. Realistically though, the facts are that the recent drop in crowds is because some Wednesday fans stop going when we start losing.

[royalowlisback]

Not that simple though - many people have bought ST's in the last few years - because DC has decided to push sales down this path - that artificially increased average attendances, meaning even relatively poor results would still see an high average attendance.

[RichSheffWeds]

7 minutes ago, royalowlisback said:

Not that simple though - many people have bought ST's in the last few years - because DC has decided to push sales down this path - that artificially increased average attendances, meaning even relatively poor results would still see an high average attendance.

Artificial ?

 

They either bought tickets or didn’t. 

[royalowlisback]

Just now, RichSheffWeds said:

Artificial ?

 

They either bought tickets or didn’t. 

In terms of trying collate tickets sold based on previous seasons performance. There was a dramatic shift towards Season Tickets, by many thousands - if the results had been worse, attendances wouldn't have lowered that much anyway - because many potential 'floating' supporters had already committed (bought their tickets in advance).

[trev]

Agree to an extent.

 

But the crazy prices will put walk-up fans off. 

 

Especially for non-derby games or midweek fixtures.

[Greengrass]

Don't forget the three year ST deal came out just before we got to Wembley, so fans gambled on us beating Hull and potentially getting 2 years on a 'cheap' deal, watching prem footy.

 

Be interesting how many renew when the original 3 year deal comes to an end this season, and, what 'offers' DC puts in place to tempt fans to renew.

[OWL1969]

4 minutes ago, Peacenocchio said:

There is a frequent argument on Owlstalk that the high cost of tickets are the cause of the downturn in crowd numbers. Everyone's entitled to an opinion but  I thought I would look at if there is any evidence as to why crowds fall and rise at Hillsborough.

 

Now I know that many on Owlstalk won’t like this but…… its fairly clear and obvious that the driver of crowd numbers is not price. It’s a bit bleeding obvious but its where the team finished the season before that determines the size of the crowd the next season.

 

Evidence

 

In 2011/12 the team went up 13 places – crowd went up 13% in 2012/13

 

In 2012/13 the team finished down 16 places lower (in a higher league) – crowd went down 12% in 2013/14

 

In 2013/14 the team went up 2 places - crowd went up 4% in 2014/15

 

In 2014/15 the team went up 3 places - crowd went up 3% in 2015/16

 

In 2015/16 the team went up 9 places (play off final) - crowd went up 20% in 2016/17

 

In 2016/17 the team went down 2 places (play off semi) - crowd down 4% in 2017/18

 

In 2017/18 the team went down 9 places – crowd down ? in 2018/19

 

Its amazingly consistent. It’s fairly obvious that season ticket sales are affected by previous years and that ‘walk ups’ (or more realistically ‘walk away’ fans) don’t come back quickly, hence in Carlos first year of the play off final the crowd only rose by 3%.

 

I know that this won’t end the debate because price is a real thing for a minority of those who have stopped going and it’s an emotional thing and our prices are high. Realistically though, the facts are that the recent drop in crowds is because some Wednesday fans stop going when we start losing.

 

Not quite facts

2015/16 6th place 

2016/17 4th place improvement on previons season

2017/18 crowds down

 

I agree performance has a big bearing. 

But saying pricing doesn't affect numbers is a ridiculous comment, of course it does, less home fans and generally less away fans (all but the clubs with huge away support and our neighbours being affected) and them that do come in numbers complain about getting ripped off and it's only once a season for them.

 

Some people are genuinely being out priced others wont pay it on principal either way it is adversely affecting our attendances and losing future generations.

 

Winning more would get some back for some games, but not on an consistent basis.

 

It's simple economics, if the is product is too expensive all but the very dedicated or people fortunate enought to not be affected by pricing will be lost.

 

 

 

[Guest The Claw]

I would say hypothetically there's an unwritten contract they win pay on the day go to match, they loose pay on the day stay at home.

[Nero]

40 minutes ago, OWL1969 said:

Not quite facts

2015/16 6th place 

2016/17 4th place improvement on previons season

2017/18 crowds down

 

I agree performance has a big bearing. 

But saying pricing doesn't affect numbers is a ridiculous comment, of course it does, less home fans and generally less away fans (all but the clubs with huge away support and our neighbours being affected) and them that do come in numbers complain about getting ripped off and it's only once a season for them.

 

Some people are genuinely being out priced others wont pay it on principal either way it is adversely affecting our attendances and losing future generations.

 

Winning more would get some back for some games, but not on an consistent basis.

 

It's simple economics, if the is product is too expensive all but the very dedicated or people fortunate enought to not be affected by pricing will be lost.

 

 

 

Eh?

1516 play off final

1617 play off semis 

So a downgrade in performance obviously.

Fact.

Your just giving your own opinions. Back them up with something.

[Buxtongent]

Whilst I agree that price pays a large part in people's decision to go to a match, it is only one factor, and not the main factor at that..

crowds have been rising for the last five years, whilst last season saw a decline. To me, the most important factor is the success of the side. When the side are playing well and succeeding, people will come. The fact that ST sales have been increasing will inevitably mean a reduction in the PAYG  customers, which is a variable factor. I would suggest that one factor not taken into consideration is the effect of TV and radio, not so much on the Saturday matches, but certainly on Midweek matches, and alteration of KO times by TV and SAG, An early KO on Saturdays affects many people who work Sat. morns, and people who have other commitments for Sundays.    

[@owlstalk]

1 hour ago, Peacenocchio said:

There is a frequent argument on Owlstalk that the high cost of tickets are the cause of the downturn in crowd numbers. Everyone's entitled to an opinion but  I thought I would look at if there is any evidence as to why crowds fall and rise at Hillsborough.

 

Now I know that many on Owlstalk won’t like this but…… its fairly clear and obvious that the driver of crowd numbers is not price. It’s a bit bleeding obvious but its where the team finished the season before that determines the size of the crowd the next season.

 

Evidence

 

In 2011/12 the team went up 13 places – crowd went up 13% in 2012/13

 

In 2012/13 the team finished down 16 places lower (in a higher league) – crowd went down 12% in 2013/14

 

In 2013/14 the team went up 2 places - crowd went up 4% in 2014/15

 

In 2014/15 the team went up 3 places - crowd went up 3% in 2015/16

 

In 2015/16 the team went up 9 places (play off final) - crowd went up 20% in 2016/17

 

In 2016/17 the team went down 2 places (play off semi) - crowd down 4% in 2017/18

 

In 2017/18 the team went down 9 places – crowd down ? in 2018/19

 

Its amazingly consistent. It’s fairly obvious that season ticket sales are affected by previous years and that ‘walk ups’ (or more realistically ‘walk away’ fans) don’t come back quickly, hence in Carlos first year of the play off final the crowd only rose by 3%.

 

I know that this won’t end the debate because price is a real thing for a minority of those who have stopped going and it’s an emotional thing and our prices are high. Realistically though, the facts are that the recent drop in crowds is because some Wednesday fans stop going when we start losing.

 

 

 

Thats season tickets mostly which makes sense

[S36 OWL]

I think crowds are down because of the Phantom Kop Trumper. 

[Liam]

1 hour ago, Peacenocchio said:

There is a frequent argument on Owlstalk that the high cost of tickets are the cause of the downturn in crowd numbers. Everyone's entitled to an opinion but  I thought I would look at if there is any evidence as to why crowds fall and rise at Hillsborough.

 

Now I know that many on Owlstalk won’t like this but…… its fairly clear and obvious that the driver of crowd numbers is not price. It’s a bit bleeding obvious but its where the team finished the season before that determines the size of the crowd the next season.

 

Evidence

 

In 2011/12 the team went up 13 places – crowd went up 13% in 2012/13

 

In 2012/13 the team finished down 16 places lower (in a higher league) – crowd went down 12% in 2013/14

 

In 2013/14 the team went up 2 places - crowd went up 4% in 2014/15

 

In 2014/15 the team went up 3 places - crowd went up 3% in 2015/16

 

In 2015/16 the team went up 9 places (play off final) - crowd went up 20% in 2016/17

 

In 2016/17 the team went down 2 places (play off semi) - crowd down 4% in 2017/18

 

In 2017/18 the team went down 9 places – crowd down ? in 2018/19

 

Its amazingly consistent. It’s fairly obvious that season ticket sales are affected by previous years and that ‘walk ups’ (or more realistically ‘walk away’ fans) don’t come back quickly, hence in Carlos first year of the play off final the crowd only rose by 3%.

 

I know that this won’t end the debate because price is a real thing for a minority of those who have stopped going and it’s an emotional thing and our prices are high. Realistically though, the facts are that the recent drop in crowds is because some Wednesday fans stop going when we start losing.

 

To add balance to your arguement you should also compare average attendance bases on the average price of a ticket year on year to see if there is any correlation between lower prices and higher attendances, and vice versa. If there is then there is an arguement that lower prices attracts larger crowds. If there isn’t it adds weight to your theory. 

 

Just saying...

[Ian_D]

Early bird season tickets are good value. 

Over 40 squid on the day, nah. 

[handworth52]

the club needs to have a much simpler price structure ,there is no need for 10 price bands then another 4 different prices in the ground ,then a gold and silver membership ,its a bit like a gas/electric company with 70 odd different tariffs . it should be, Saturday 3pm cat a for leeds,derby,forest etc cat b Bolton Rotherham millwall etc   ,then cat c for night games and all sky games should be no more than £35 for kop for band a then £30 and £25 for the sky/night games fiver extra for south , I think easily an extra 2-3k would turn up plus it wouldn't confuse a casual supporter wondering if they had to pay upto £49 to get in. 

[shezzas left peg]

1 hour ago, OWL1969 said:

Not quite facts

2015/16 6th place 

2016/17 4th place improvement on previons season

2017/18 crowds down

 

I agree performance has a big bearing. 

But saying pricing doesn't affect numbers is a ridiculous comment, of course it does, less home fans and generally less away fans (all but the clubs with huge away support and our neighbours being affected) and them that do come in numbers complain about getting ripped off and it's only once a season for them.

 

Some people are genuinely being out priced others wont pay it on principal either way it is adversely affecting our attendances and losing future generations.

 

Winning more would get some back for some games, but not on an consistent basis.

 

It's simple economics, if the is product is too expensive all but the very dedicated or people fortunate enought to not be affected by pricing will be lost.

 

 

 

I'm one of those that regularly works away, so miss almost all the midweek matches, if I'm in Scotland, Ireland or if we go over to Holland or Belgium we normally do 2week stints, so it made a season ticket quite pointless /a financial waste. The ex used to play football for Ossett Town ladies on a Sunday and liked to go to the football,if I was off and able to go, so the new pricing for walk up was/is a real turn off for people like me, nearly £100 quid for two tickets (if it drops against a, so called better side) add transport, parking, food and a drink or two and it turns into a very expensive Saturday,a couple of those in the month and its about the same price as the monthly mortgage. 

Edited September 25, 2018 by shezzas left peg

[pgmetcalf]

Nope don't agree, price is the main reason. Prices may not have gone up as much before but not many fans are getting adequate wages to compensate since 2008 and it's been even worse post 2010. Some unfortunate souls have had no increase at all. On top of that I get a bit fed up of going to every home match, it's a bit samey, and every few seasons I stop going as much but return after 3 or so seasons. Besides, what does it matter anyway, do people really deserve to be treated less favourable because they've stopped going for a bit? Personally I hate being treat like a cash cow

[fudge27]

1 hour ago, Peacenocchio said:

There is a frequent argument on Owlstalk that the high cost of tickets are the cause of the downturn in crowd numbers. Everyone's entitled to an opinion but  I thought I would look at if there is any evidence as to why crowds fall and rise at Hillsborough.

 

Now I know that many on Owlstalk won’t like this but…… its fairly clear and obvious that the driver of crowd numbers is not price. It’s a bit bleeding obvious but its where the team finished the season before that determines the size of the crowd the next season.

 

Evidence

 

In 2011/12 the team went up 13 places – crowd went up 13% in 2012/13

 

In 2012/13 the team finished down 16 places lower (in a higher league) – crowd went down 12% in 2013/14

 

In 2013/14 the team went up 2 places - crowd went up 4% in 2014/15

 

In 2014/15 the team went up 3 places - crowd went up 3% in 2015/16

 

In 2015/16 the team went up 9 places (play off final) - crowd went up 20% in 2016/17

 

In 2016/17 the team went down 2 places (play off semi) - crowd down 4% in 2017/18

 

In 2017/18 the team went down 9 places – crowd down ? in 2018/19

 

Its amazingly consistent. It’s fairly obvious that season ticket sales are affected by previous years and that ‘walk ups’ (or more realistically ‘walk away’ fans) don’t come back quickly, hence in Carlos first year of the play off final the crowd only rose by 3%.

 

I know that this won’t end the debate because price is a real thing for a minority of those who have stopped going and it’s an emotional thing and our prices are high. Realistically though, the facts are that the recent drop in crowds is because some Wednesday fans stop going when we start losing.

 

Wrong.

 

and then tried to say another poster is wrong for highlighting this.

 

on that basis I'm out of your reasoning

[Mr. Tom]

One thing that’s always completely baffled me about this is the idea that people genuinely prefer to support teams when they’re doing well. Bear with me - I know, on paper that sounds like a no-brainer but when you think about it, it doesn’t make any sense.

 

I hate Wednesday losing and I feel crap about it - but I kinda like feeling crap about it, because it’s part of supporting a football team, and THAT’S what I enjoy doing...not “watching the winner”. The very idea of staying away because we’re doing less well makes absolutely zero sense to me.

 

Because I’ve never really felt in a position to choose WHO I supported - it was always Wednesday or nobody for me - I’ve never understood why it’d be any more satisfying/rewarding to support Real Madrid. Wednesday’s fortunes (or lack thereof) are all I’m really interested in; a mid-table clash with some random cloggers on a soggy Tuesday night in February is infinitely more compelling for me than a Champion’s League semifinal because my team’s involved. If my team happened to be the one in the glamour fixture, then same - but the glamour itself has nowt to do with it.

 

Supporting Wednesday to me isn’t *better* when they’re doing well; it’s one side of the coin, and without the flipside of that coin, the drudgery and heartbreak, it’d all be utterly meaningless. I actively enjoy feeling rubbish because we got beat 3-1 off Milwall midweek - hate the result, but enjoy hating it. Does that make any sense?

 

Probably not. But I’m happy supporting Wednesday even when suppprting Wednesday makes me temporarily unhappy. Almost *because* it can do that.

 

Not bothering to watch the week after, or until we start winning again, seems to completely miss the beauty of it all for me, to the point where it sounds genuinely crackers ever going at all.

 

Am I doing football wrong?!

 

[Rev Owl]

I like the argument in the original post.  It makes sense to me. It may be argued that you are proving correlation rather than causality but a long term correlation does suggest it might be a causal relationship. 

The two problems you will face however are that in general, evidence and facts are usually placed second to opinion and secondly that personal anecdotal evidence usually outweighs big picture data. 

So good luck with all that.