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Does it really "even itself out"?


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Seen this comment over the years and never known if it really is true.

 

Do decisions by officials even themselves out over a season? I'm gonna bookmark this over the season and keep track to see where we end up come May. Happy for peoples opinions on decisions. It's difficult to predict how the outcome of games would have ended up if decisions had gone another way but i'll try and keep it consistent both ways.

So far...

 

Preston (a) - Penalty given when Lees clearly played the ball from the side. Potentially 1 point lost.

 

QPR (H) - Blatant handball on the line which would have been penalty and red card. Potentially 2 points lost.

 

Cardiff away was potentially an offside equaliser but no definitive angle so will ignore that.

 

Birmingham (a) - Clear legal goal ruled out at 0-0. Every possibility that we can go on and win the game, 1-1 possibly. 1-3 points lost.

 

Leeds at home clear legal goal ruled out but didn't affect the result.

 

Cannot think of any decisions that have led us to gain points this season, happy to alter that opinion if I've forgot something obvious.

 

Currently 4-6 points lost due to officials decisions.

 

Should be sat somewhere between 7th and 3rd with one defeat out of 11 games...

Edited by mark77
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  In the prem if two top six sides play each other decisions are usually equal . If it's one of the rest of the prem v a top six you've no chance of a decision , especially if something is riding on it unless it's totally obvious . Whether other teams in the championship have as many, less or more than us you'd have to consult all their matches and not just ones that concern us gaining or losing points . Mind you none are as obvious as the Leeds player a few seasons ago who reached up and punched the ball clear which all the officials missed . Blind , incompetent or biased . It was definitely one of them . 

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3 hours ago, mark77 said:

Seen this comment over the years and never known if it really is true.

 

Do decisions by officials even themselves out over a season? I'm gonna bookmark this over the season and keep track to see where we end up come May. Happy for peoples opinions on decisions. It's difficult to predict how the outcome of games would have ended up if decisions had gone another way but i'll try and keep it consistent both ways.

So far...

 

Preston (a) - Penalty given when Lees clearly played the ball from the side. Potentially 1 point lost.

 

QPR (H) - Blatant handball on the line which would have been penalty and red card. Potentially 2 points lost.

 

Cardiff away was potentially an offside equaliser but no definitive angle so will ignore that.

 

Birmingham (a) - Clear legal goal ruled out at 0-0. Every possibility that we can go on and win the game, 1-1 possibly. 1-3 points lost.

 

Leeds at home clear legal goal ruled out but didn't affect the result.

 

Cannot think of any decisions that have led us to gain points this season, happy to alter that opinion if I've forgot something obvious.

 

Currently 4-6 points lost due to officials decisions.

 

Should be sat somewhere between 7th and 3rd with one defeat out of 11 games...

 

Burton player should've been off for the foul on Westwood

 

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Rather than counting individual incidents made by an individual official. Take a look at the committee decisions made by the referee with assistance from 4th official.

 

All measured and all recorded. Matches of top 6 clubs when trailing by a goal ...How much time on the board and how much time played.

.                                                 Matches of top 6 clubs when leading by a goal...How much time on the board and how much time played.

Then carry out the same exercise for the bottom 6 clubs in each category then study the correlation. I'm sure the results would be very interesting.                                        

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6 hours ago, mark77 said:

Seen this comment over the years and never known if it really is true.

 

Do decisions by officials even themselves out over a season? I'm gonna bookmark this over the season and keep track to see where we end up come May. Happy for peoples opinions on decisions. It's difficult to predict how the outcome of games would have ended up if decisions had gone another way but i'll try and keep it consistent both ways.

So far...

 

Preston (a) - Penalty given when Lees clearly played the ball from the side. Potentially 1 point lost.

 

QPR (H) - Blatant handball on the line which would have been penalty and red card. Potentially 2 points lost.

 

Cardiff away was potentially an offside equaliser but no definitive angle so will ignore that.

 

Birmingham (a) - Clear legal goal ruled out at 0-0. Every possibility that we can go on and win the game, 1-1 possibly. 1-3 points lost.

 

Leeds at home clear legal goal ruled out but didn't affect the result.

 

Cannot think of any decisions that have led us to gain points this season, happy to alter that opinion if I've forgot something obvious.

 

Currently 4-6 points lost due to officials decisions.

 

Should be sat somewhere between 7th and 3rd with one defeat out of 11 games...

 

It might not always even out if you're keeping real close tabs on it but in general over a season then yes, I think it probably does, luck seems to go in little runs of good & bad.

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Does it balls even itself out! Never has. Just what pundits say and usually fans of clubs near the top of the league that get every decision.

 

Even if matches were 50/50 creating he same chances etc, players in the area and tackles. It still wouldn't even out.

 

Now compare day Man united to Palace this season. United have much quicker direct players that will see more of the ball and be in the opposition box more. Whereas pace will rarely get that (especially with Zaha out). So imo for every wrongly denied penalty Palace get Man U in theory should receive many more turned down. This on the other hand will mean that Man U would get many more wrong penalty decisions in their favour too as they are in position to claim them. Getting those decisions matter much more to a team down at the bottom who are trying to nick wins by the odd goal. Then add on red card decisions. Teams that have have more possession are likely to get less wrong decisions. The team chasing the game will get many more. They will make more tackles etc, meaning more yellow and red cards. So those decisions again won't even themselves out. Place for example might have 4 wrongful red cars given to them this season, but only receive one for an opposing team. 

 

Basically all I'm trying to say is per penalty appeal or red card appeal they might even out, but down to a teams style of play and quality of player it really won't and teams near the bottom will get much more punished. That's also excluding bad luck and inept officials. 

 

Easy made up example. Number of tackles wrongfully leading to red cards = 1 in 50. Man U make 50 of these tackles, 1 man wrongfully sent off, Place make 250 and 5 sent off.

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