The maths - stay positive!

[Michaeltheowl]

14 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

Surely after the results of the last few weeks you can see that football isn’t so linear!!!!!

True, but non-linearity is just as likely to turn us downwards as upwards, and the underlying trend would have to be for the latter because his team is simply no good, especially at the back where they leak like a sieve.

[WalthamOwl]

Blackburn have something we don’t. A top striker and goal scorer at this level. We won’t beat them. After our score today and other sides winning we are as good as down. We have 3 games left, struggling to score, had the easiest game of the bottom sides this weekend and are 2 points from safety because of our GD. Look at who Birmingham and Huddersfield are playing next weekend. 

[edwinowl]

1 hour ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

I know today was disappointing and I know our chances of stopping up are less than they’d have been if we had won - but I have already seen some overreactions about the situation.

 

If we beat Blackburn - I STILL SAY WE WILL STOP UP!!!

 

If we win two of our last three matches, we will be on

50 points and we that will almost certainly be enough! I still think it’s unlikely that 21 other teams manage to get there.

 

That looks difficult, but if we win at Blackburn it’ll definitely look achievable against a team safe in the play offs and a team on the beach since Xmas.

 

Here is why 50 will probably be enough if we beat Blackburn:-

 

Blackburn will still be a point away from

50 with remaining matches against Coventry and Leicester.

 

Plymouth will still need to get two points from

away matches against Stoke, Millwall and home v Coventry. Odds on, but looks more difficult if they lose at Stoke. If they don’t lose at Stoke, it looks a bit scary for Stoke….

 

…..as they’ll still need two points (or three if they lose to Plymouth) from Southampton away and Bristol

City at home.

 

QPR also still need three points to get to 50 from

Preston, Leeds and Coventry. Wouldn’t fall off my chair if that didn’t happen.

 

And here is where it gets far more likely 50

will be enough!

 

Huddersfield and Birmingham still have to play each other.

 

if that ends up a draw, Huddersfield can only get to 50 points by winning both their other matches at home to Swansea and away v Ipswich. Birmingham

can only get to 50 points by getting four points from Rotherham (amen) and Norwich.

 

If Huddersfield beat Birmingham, Birmingham

need to win both of the above. Huddersfield would still need to beat Swansea or Ipswich.

 

If Birmingham win, Huddersfield look doomed unless they can win at Ipswich. Birmingham would be safe if they then beat Rotherham.

 

I know people will look at all of the above and think they’ll all happen - because that’s what football fans do! But statistically, it’s more likely they won’t happen than will!

 

And other teams will definitely be looking at Wednesday’s fixtures thinking we can win two of them (or knowing football fans, they’ll be thinking we definitely will!).

 

So I know it looks bleak at the moment, but if we beat Blackburn, I promise it’ll look a lot different and everybody will be positive again! Heck, if we beat Blackburn, everybody will be hopeful we can get 51 or 53 points.

 

So let’s hope 7,000 fans can roar us on to 3 points next Sunday.

 

But don’t listen to @DSandersonOWL - unless you are so optimistic you think your lottery numbers are dropping tonight - Blackburn is must win!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s time. Let it go lad. 

[Brando17]

1 hour ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

I know today was disappointing and I know our chances of stopping up are less than they’d have been if we had won - but I have already seen some overreactions about the situation.

 

If we beat Blackburn - I STILL SAY WE WILL STOP UP!!!

 

If we win two of our last three matches, we will be on

50 points and we that will almost certainly be enough! I still think it’s unlikely that 21 other teams manage to get there.

 

That looks difficult, but if we win at Blackburn it’ll definitely look achievable against a team safe in the play offs and a team on the beach since Xmas.

 

Here is why 50 will probably be enough if we beat Blackburn:-

 

Blackburn will still be a point away from

50 with remaining matches against Coventry and Leicester.

 

Plymouth will still need to get two points from

away matches against Stoke, Millwall and home v Coventry. Odds on, but looks more difficult if they lose at Stoke. If they don’t lose at Stoke, it looks a bit scary for Stoke….

 

…..as they’ll still need two points (or three if they lose to Plymouth) from Southampton away and Bristol

City at home.

 

QPR also still need three points to get to 50 from

Preston, Leeds and Coventry. Wouldn’t fall off my chair if that didn’t happen.

 

And here is where it gets far more likely 50

will be enough!

 

Huddersfield and Birmingham still have to play each other.

 

if that ends up a draw, Huddersfield can only get to 50 points by winning both their other matches at home to Swansea and away v Ipswich. Birmingham

can only get to 50 points by getting four points from Rotherham (amen) and Norwich.

 

If Huddersfield beat Birmingham, Birmingham

need to win both of the above. Huddersfield would still need to beat Swansea or Ipswich.

 

If Birmingham win, Huddersfield look doomed unless they can win at Ipswich. Birmingham would be safe if they then beat Rotherham.

 

I know people will look at all of the above and think they’ll all happen - because that’s what football fans do! But statistically, it’s more likely they won’t happen than will!

 

And other teams will definitely be looking at Wednesday’s fixtures thinking we can win two of them (or knowing football fans, they’ll be thinking we definitely will!).

 

So I know it looks bleak at the moment, but if we beat Blackburn, I promise it’ll look a lot different and everybody will be positive again! Heck, if we beat Blackburn, everybody will be hopeful we can get 51 or 53 points.

 

So let’s hope 7,000 fans can roar us on to 3 points next Sunday.

 

But don’t listen to @DSandersonOWL - unless you are so optimistic you think your lottery numbers are dropping tonight - Blackburn is must win!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah,yeah imo

Stoke are the worst team weve played,before Cardiff and we still managed to ******** it up,were simply not good enough,and,as for the substitutions,,if Monk had done that hed have been sacked. Stupid. 

[Pulcinella]

Problem is teams around us are getting points on the table also. It's no longer down to us. A win today would've got us into 21st position and then it would've been in our hands. We're not only needing to win games, we're also needing others to mess up. And the top teams are not doing us any favours at all. 

[1952Owl]

The worries though are..... 

SZMODICS what a player for Blackburn. 29 goals this season I think. If he wasn't playing........!!!! 

BUT KEEP SAYING WE HAVE TO WIN! 

 

Rovrum ain't going 2 bust a gut v Brum are they!!!!!!! Bad 4 us. 

 

QPR V Preston 

Never sure with Preston? 

Hot + cold. 

 

Huddersfield x Swansea

Swansea are safe. 

I fear Huddersfield will win this. 

 

Stoke v Plymouth

A cert draw I reckons. 

 

SATURDAY 30th April @ 17.00

gulp. Then to Sunday and us..... 

[duncanidaho]

Blackburn Rovers        49

Plymouth Argyle          48

Queens Park Rangers 47

Stoke City                     47

Birmingham City         45

Huddersfield Town     44

Sheffield Wednesday 44

Rotherham United      23

 

next week

qpr v preston               draw

stoke v plymouth        stoke or plymouth win

brum v rotherham        brum win

hudders v swansea      draw

b'burn v owls                 owls

 

Blackburn Rovers        49

Plymouth Argyle          48 or 51

Queens Park Rangers 48

Stoke City                     47 or 50

Birmingham City         48

Huddersfield Town     45 

Sheffield Wednesday 47

Rotherham United      23

 

we win next week and we are well in touch, even if huddersfield win.

 

we really have reached must win now though, we stay on 44 or 45 points and nothing less than 2 wins in the last 2 save us.

[Big Jack]

1 hour ago, scram said:

The way Blackburn played today its gonna be tough going there and winning

 

They surprised me tbh

Agreed but they won't put 10 men behind the ball. Our problem is scoring more than one given our defensive frailties. Still got to go for it if we take to final day you just never know. That means winning the next 2 i will pray for a miracle again and scoring the winning goal from our only penalty of the season. Still remember 1970 got absolutely soaked and we blew it. I wept all the way home. 

 

 

 

 

. 

 

 

[lukeyswfc]

I’d have positives if it wasn’t Chansiri behind it all.

 

I mean, if we appointed Röhl and we gave it this good go line we have but bottled it again and went down and he was around with an owner that would back him, let him get rid of who he wants to get rid, sign who he wants to sign, give us some hope and ambition then yeah.

 

But under Chansiri getting relegated, again, is just killer.

 

We might do a United 7 year stint down there. It could get worse.

[matthefish2002]

Today was a blow but nowhere near a knockout blow.

Beat Blackburn and its back to being 50/50 on us stopping up.

Plenty of twists yet.

[SHUowl]

Tired of the IFs, we've been in bottom three all season and had chances to leave it.

 

We deserve to go down.

[Earlsfieldowl]

We have to score goals and win matches - a combination that is proving exceptionally difficult at this time.

 

..anything less than 3 points at Ewood Park and we are baked, just waiting for the icing sugar to be sprinkled.

[OxOwl]

Its game on again. But we can't have another weekend like this..

Every result bar udders draw. Not good enough 

[brian joicey]

2 hours ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

Every single team in the bottom 8 will say the same.

 

But unlike the rest of them, they’ve not shown the form  of a top 10 team for the last 30 matches!

Neither have we for the last 8 matches ....and they are the only ones that count ( now ) 

[DSandersonOWL]

4 hours ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

I know today was disappointing and I know our chances of stopping up are less than they’d have been if we had won - but I have already seen some overreactions about the situation.

 

If we beat Blackburn - I STILL SAY WE WILL STOP UP!!!

 

If we win two of our last three matches, we will be on

50 points and we that will almost certainly be enough! I still think it’s unlikely that 21 other teams manage to get there.

 

That looks difficult, but if we win at Blackburn it’ll definitely look achievable against a team safe in the play offs and a team on the beach since Xmas.

 

Here is why 50 will probably be enough if we beat Blackburn:-

 

Blackburn will still be a point away from

50 with remaining matches against Coventry and Leicester.

 

Plymouth will still need to get two points from

away matches against Stoke, Millwall and home v Coventry. Odds on, but looks more difficult if they lose at Stoke. If they don’t lose at Stoke, it looks a bit scary for Stoke….

 

…..as they’ll still need two points (or three if they lose to Plymouth) from Southampton away and Bristol

City at home.

 

QPR also still need three points to get to 50 from

Preston, Leeds and Coventry. Wouldn’t fall off my chair if that didn’t happen.

 

And here is where it gets far more likely 50

will be enough!

 

Huddersfield and Birmingham still have to play each other.

 

if that ends up a draw, Huddersfield can only get to 50 points by winning both their other matches at home to Swansea and away v Ipswich. Birmingham

can only get to 50 points by getting four points from Rotherham (amen) and Norwich.

 

If Huddersfield beat Birmingham, Birmingham

need to win both of the above. Huddersfield would still need to beat Swansea or Ipswich.

 

If Birmingham win, Huddersfield look doomed unless they can win at Ipswich. Birmingham would be safe if they then beat Rotherham.

 

I know people will look at all of the above and think they’ll all happen - because that’s what football fans do! But statistically, it’s more likely they won’t happen than will!

 

And other teams will definitely be looking at Wednesday’s fixtures thinking we can win two of them (or knowing football fans, they’ll be thinking we definitely will!).

 

So I know it looks bleak at the moment, but if we beat Blackburn, I promise it’ll look a lot different and everybody will be positive again! Heck, if we beat Blackburn, everybody will be hopeful we can get 51 or 53 points.

 

So let’s hope 7,000 fans can roar us on to 3 points next Sunday.

 

But don’t listen to @DSandersonOWL - unless you are so optimistic you think your lottery numbers are dropping tonight - Blackburn is must win!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You make a lot of good points, too many posters plunging into despair.

Blackburn may well be a 'must win' game as I posted at end of Stoke match. 

Next Saturday's results will make that clearer to judge.

Certainly with only 3 games left at least one will be 'a must win'. 

[DSandersonOWL]

1 hour ago, SHUowl said:

Tired of the IFs, we've been in bottom three all season and had chances to leave it.

 

We deserve to go down.

OMG  Yet another one who does not understand how relegation works.

We only deserve to go down if we are in the bottom 3 at the end of the season. 

[modboy]

4 hours ago, Lawrie’s Left Peg said:

Huddersfield v Swansea

Rotherham v Birmingham

Stoke v Plymouth. 
Likelihood is that even a win at Blackburn won’t get us out of the bottom 3.

In 21 away games we’ve won 5, lost 15, scored just 12 and conceded 40. Only Brum and Toytown are worse. 
There’s no logical reason to believe we avoid relegation I’m afraid. 

 

well that’s grim reading

[Southie_Owl]

3 hours ago, duncanidaho said:

Blackburn Rovers        49

Plymouth Argyle          48

Queens Park Rangers 47

Stoke City                     47

Birmingham City         45

Huddersfield Town     44

Sheffield Wednesday 44

Rotherham United      23

 

next week

qpr v preston               draw

stoke v plymouth        stoke or plymouth win

brum v rotherham        brum win

hudders v swansea      draw

b'burn v owls                 owls

 

Blackburn Rovers        49

Plymouth Argyle          48 or 51

Queens Park Rangers 48

Stoke City                     47 or 50

Birmingham City         48

Huddersfield Town     45 

Sheffield Wednesday 47

Rotherham United      23

 

we win next week and we are well in touch, even if huddersfield win.

 

we really have reached must win now though, we stay on 44 or 45 points and nothing less than 2 wins in the last 2 save us.

yep this is how I see it too,  we all said Blackburn away was a must win even if we won today.  That hasn’t changed.  
 

Even if results go against us AGAIN next Saturday, because Stoke play Plymouth we can make up at least 2 points if not 3 points on one of them.  
 

Feels a bit like in 2000 when we had to win at arsenal to save our season.  

[SHUowl]

54 minutes ago, DSandersonOWL said:

OMG  Yet another one who does not understand how relegation works.

We only deserve to go down if we are in the bottom 3 at the end of the season. 

I know how it works, the bottom three go down. 

 

I've not seen us out of that yet.

[duncanidaho]

another way of looking at it is that we are undefeated in the last 3 and only lost 1 in the last 5.

 

(looking for another straw to clutch)