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HirstWhoScoredIt

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HirstWhoScoredIt last won the day on November 5

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About HirstWhoScoredIt

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  1. A 30 point punishment for your Mrs cheating on you? was it with Chansiri?
  2. Presumably they didn’t know that we had backdated the sale of the ground before the sale had been formally completed.
  3. They didn’t know, hence the investigation
  4. Derby did it properly. As ever with Chansiri, we did it wrong. Putting in the accounts before the sale had been completed as per the land Registry and Companies House. Brilliant
  5. 18. They are one of the 8 teams that have managed it. They soon went about correcting their position. 31 points after 20 matches.
  6. I heard Jeff Stelling day on Saturday that Swansea are the only team in England that’s not lost away yet. As soon as I heard that, I knew that we will beat them on Saturday.
  7. They’ll probably need 59+ points in 31 matches. seems unlikely...... As the stats show.
  8. Imagine if Id have put different results, I'd have looked even stupider The good news is that the second Birmingham should have been Blackburn and I reckon we'll beat those. 26 points! Boom!
  9. H v Swansea - Win A v WBA - Lose H v Birmingham - Draw A v Charlton - Draw H v Brentford - Draw A v Derby - Draw A v Forest - Win H v Bristol C - Win A v Stoke - Lose H v Cardiff - Draw H v Hull - Win A v Leeds - Lose H v Birmingham - Draw A v Wigan - Win H v Millwall - Win W6 D6 L3 Pts 24
  10. If you have no interest in statistics stop reading here. Please do not spoil the readability of the thread by quoting the opening post. Summary for those that do not want to read the Stats and Research I have posted this topic for the last four seasons (this time my research is over 20 seasons rather than 10) and shown that after 15 matches most of the outcomes have already been decided. Or more to the point it has been decided what will not happen. Therefore, already this season, we know that most likely:- The top 2 will come from WBA, Leeds, Preston, Swansea and Forest. It is highly unlikely that anybody outside of this five will get automatic promotion. The top 6 will come from the above 5, Bristol City, Wednesday, Fulham and QPR. Charlton, Hull, Birmingham, Brentford, Cardiff and Derby have outside chances. The bottom three will come from Barnsley, Stoke, Boro, Wigan, Luton or Reading. The Past 20 Seasons Relegation 15 teams have had fewer than 10 points after 15 matches. 13 of those 15 teams have finished in the bottom four and 11 of them have been relegated. 56 of the 60 teams to be relegated had fewer than 18 points after 15 matches. Only two teams with over 20 points after 15 matches have been relegated in the past 20 seasons. Luton in 2006/07 (22 points after 15 matches) and Wolves in 2012/13 (21 points after 15 matches). Play Offs 90 of the 120 teams to finish in the top six have had at least 24 points after 15 matches. Only 8 teams in the last 20 seasons have finished in the top 6 after having fewer than 20 points in the first 15 matches (8 out of 219 teams). 25 of the 27 teams that have had more than 30 points have gone on to finish in the top 6. The average amount of points required to finish 6th over the past 20 seasons has been exactly 74. 72 points is often spoken about as the amount of points required for the play offs but this total would have missed out on 16 of the previous 20 seasons. 80 points would have been sufficient to obtain a play off place in all of the last 20 seasons. There have been only three seasons when more than 75 points has been required in the past 20 seasons (99/00, 14/15 & 16/17). 73-75 points have been the magic figure in 13 of the past 20 seasons – remarkably consistent. The lowest points total to obtain a play off place was 68 (12/13). Automatic Promotion In the past 20 seasons, only 7 teams with fewer than 27 points after 15 matches have finished in the top 2. 19 of the 27 teams that have had more than 30 points after 15 matches have achieved automatic promotion. The team in 2nd has finished with an average of 87.9 points in the last 20 seasons. The lowest total to achieve automatic promotion is 79 points (07/08 and 12/13). The highest points total achieved by the 2nd placed team is 93 (13/14 and 16/17) In 12 of the past 20 seasons you have needed at least 88 points. Points % top 6 % top 2 <20 4% 1% 20-23 19% 2% 24-26 47% 5% 27-30 62% 25% 30+ 93% 70% This Season Relegation Barnsley and Stoke have 9 and 8 points respectively. Over the past 20 seasons, 73% of teams with fewer than 10 points after 15 matches have been relegated. It could be particularly difficult for them this season as teams at the top are concertinaed due to no teams running away with it. As such, with all teams taking points off each other, everybody but the bottom four are taking at least one point per match. Blackburn and Millwall are only 16th and 17th but they are already on 18 points. Therefore, it looks likely that the points total for avoiding relegation could be quite high this season (average points for 21st place 48.9). Play Offs & Automatics No team has over 30 points this season. This has only happened in four of the past 20 seasons. Looking at the spread of points, it looks highly unlikely that this will be a season where you can sneak in to the play offs with a low total. A team at the top is not taking a large share of the cake. Looking at previous seasons points totals after 15 matches and at the end of the season, it looks likely that the 6th team may achieve at least 75 points (above the average of 74 points). Conversely, the points total required to gain automatic promotion looks like it could be relatively low. The second placed team has obtained 88 points in 12 of the last 20 seasons. This season, it appears likely that it could be less than that or they would need to get less than that (i.e. the third placed team will not get an historically high total). Predictions Taking the past history and then by adjusting the figures on a pro-rata basis to take account of this seasons spread of points, the following table can be calculated showing the percentage chances of each team getting in the top 2, top 6 or relegated. Before anybody says it, this is done to the nearest percentage point, so for instance I am not saying that there is a 0% chance of Wednesday getting relegated or Blackburn coming in the top 6, I am saying that the chances are less than 0.5%. Pts top 2 top 6 Relegation 1 West Brom 30 41% 73% 0% 2 Preston 28 33% 66% 0% 3 Leeds 28 33% 66% 0% 4 Swansea 28 33% 66% 0% 5 Forest (played 14) 25 27% 59% 0% 6 Bristol C 25 12% 50% 0% 7 WEDNESDAY 24 6% 42% 0% 8 Fulham 23 3% 34% 0% 9 QPR 23 3% 34% 0% 10 Charlton 22 2% 21% 1% 11 Hull 22 2% 21% 1% 12 Birmingham 22 2% 21% 1% 13 Brentford 21 1% 13% 1% 14 Cardifff 21 1% 13% 1% 15 Derby 21 1% 13% 1% 16 Blackburn 18 0% 3% 7% 17 Millwall 18 0% 3% 7% 18 Huddersfield 16 0% 1% 16% 19 Reading (played 14) 15 0% 1% 16% 20 Wigan 15 0% 0% 23% 21 Luton 14 0% 0% 33% 22 Boro 12 0% 0% 50% 23 Barnsley 9 0% 0% 69% 24 Stoke 8 0% 0% 73% Predictions It is statistically unlikely that anybody other than Blackburn, Millwall, Huddersfield, Reading, Wigan, Luton, Boro, Barnsley or Stoke will be relegated. Blackburn and Millwall only have a 6% chance each of being relegated, therefore for prediction purposes they can be ruled out. Huddersfield are the next least likely to be relegated and are on an upward trajectory following the appointment of the Cowley’s. Therefore, they can too be ruled out. It appears that Stoke and Barnsley will most likely be relegated with one from Reading, Wigan, Luton, and Boro joining them. The most likely team to join them is Boro (oh dear Mr Gibson!). Stoke obviously have a fine squad and cash to spend therefore a new manager may turnaround their fortunes. If they do so, Luton, Wigan and Reading will be looking nervously over their shoulders. Even at this early stage, it looks highly unlikely that anybody else other than Stoke, Barnsley, Boro, Wigan, Luton and Reading will be relegated. It is highly unlikely that Blackburn, Millwall, Huddersfield, Reading, Wigan, Luton, Boro, Barnsley or Stoke will make the play offs. Fulham, QPR, Charlton, Hull, Birmingham, Brentford, Cardiff and Derby have it all to do on an individual basis as they have less than 24 points which puts them at a statistical disadvantage. However, collectively their chances are better as in 15 of the last 20 seasons, at least one team from this group (20-23 points) has managed to achieve a play off place. Fulham have the best squad and the most points from this group. West Brom, Leeds, Preston, Swansea and Forest (depends on outcome of their 15th match – used their average points per match for the calculations) are each odds on to come in the top 6 – with the former two taken as favourites to come in the top 2. It will be interesting to see if Preston can hold onto Alex Neil and if they can’t the impact that this has on them. Bristol City and Wednesday are statistically the teams that would appear to be the closest challengers. West Brom are the most likely to get automatic promotion, Leeds look the next most likely. It is highly unlikely that any body but West Brom, Preston, Leeds, Swansea or Forest will be promoted automatically. What's next? If you are on less that 44 points after 30 matches you can totally forget about the top 6! You are highly unlikely to make the top 6 if you have less than 48 points after 30 matches. Therefore, Wednesday must get at least 24 points from the next 15 matches.
  11. It’s be good if we could beat somebody not in the bottom 7 at some point. 8th bottom would do. mini steps and all that...
  12. I was always in the Courteney Cox camp but I’ve changed my mind. I’d do both.
  13. It’s coming on Monday. And it’s much better this year... most of it already done. Just waiting for Saturdays results....
  14. The annual 15 match thread is coming. And this time I’ve been back 20 seasons with all the stats. Statto’s be excited, be very excited warning:- the outcome of Saturday’s match may greatly effect just how excited you get..... And it’s even more important for Barnsley and Stoke fans...
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