Geörge Whitebread Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 The bookies seem to be pretty convinced that we'll be joining Rotherham in League One next season. Are those of us that think we have a strong chance of survival kidding ourselves? As a related aside, they think Huddersfield or QPR will finish 3rd from bottom, maybe Plymouth, Blackburn or Birmingham; but almost certainly not Stoke. I don't get that. QPR have won twice as many points as Stoke in their respective last 10 games. Is "form" less relevant than we think/hope it is? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lincs Owl Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 At this time last year, the bookies were equally convinced we would go up automatically. You may have noticed that they were wrong. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Holmowl Posted March 12 Popular Post Share Posted March 12 (edited) 11 hours ago, Geörge Whitebread said: The bookies seem to be pretty convinced that we'll be joining Rotherham in League One next season. Are those of us that think we have a strong chance of survival kidding ourselves? As a related aside, they think Huddersfield or QPR will finish 3rd from bottom, maybe Plymouth, Blackburn or Birmingham; but almost certainly not Stoke. I don't get that. QPR have won twice as many points as Stoke in their respective last 10 games. Is "form" less relevant than we think/hope it is? If form is your measure (as it should be imo) then we survive. Take the form of the bottom 8 teams over any sensible number of matches and we would stay up if that continues to May. I can’t see anything in our recent performances that suggests our form will deteriorate. We look tighter defensively, more resilient and in Beadle, Ugbo and Poveda we’ve strengthened the starting Xl immeasurably. The only thing that makes me doubt is my natural pessimism as a football fan. But we should be optimistic. Our form over the past 4 months is not a blip. No reason whatsoever that it should drop. Edited March 12 by Holmowl 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hirstys Salopettes Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Spot on @Holmowl avoiding defeat at lotus road and ewood park is key imo 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 11 hours ago, Geörge Whitebread said: The bookies seem to be pretty convinced that we'll be joining Rotherham in League One next season. Are those of us that think we have a strong chance of survival kidding ourselves? As a related aside, they think Huddersfield or QPR will finish 3rd from bottom, maybe Plymouth, Blackburn or Birmingham; but almost certainly not Stoke. I don't get that. QPR have won twice as many points as Stoke in their respective last 10 games. Is "form" less relevant than we think/hope it is? The bookies are far from convinced that we will go down. We are 10/11 which means 11 in 21 chance which equates to 52%. Deduct their 10% over round (profit margin) and they think there’s about a 47% chance. So they actually think we are more likely to stop up than go down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Plymouth are the real betting opportunity there IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1952Owl Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 George The way I see it is this...... After Saturday at Ipswich where we will lose sorry..... that leaves us with 8 games left. We then need 12+ points, so a 50% hit rate from those final 8 games. We have 4 HOME games left. Stoke + Swansea are winnable. + Best chance of an away win(s) could be at QPR +/or Blackburn? I still think we will dig out more DRAWS PS - I have said a few times now..... I think Blackburn will get "sucked into" relegation tussle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post @owlstalk Posted March 12 Popular Post Share Posted March 12 We ARE staying up 7 3 1 Owlstalk Shop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sham67 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 For Wednesday to be relegated would require a total collapse in form. I don’t see that happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 19 minutes ago, @owlstalk said: We ARE staying up Couldn’t have put that any better !! #uto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doubleo Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 If you look at games won you have to go up to 13th, Bristol, before you get to a team that’s won more games than us. It’s going to be tight but we can do it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mystic Neg Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 The bookies at this stage of the season are merely reflecting where the punters are putting their money. They are not trying to steel a march on anyone, 10/11 is there to balance their book on relegation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torryowl Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Our form against the top half of the table is pretty abysmal so if we are to stay up we need to address that sharpish. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, Hirstys Salopettes said: Spot on @Holmowl avoiding defeat at lotus road and ewood park is key imo Sorry HS, but I hate this mentality. We're below them both. We can't afford to have "avoiding defeat" as a target or even to deem it as good enough. We need to win both of those games because there are only so many opportunities like that left. Our next game is one it would be great to avoid defeat in. I'd take that. But against opposition we need to be finishing above, we need victories. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: The bookies are far from convinced that we will go down. We are 10/11 which means 11 in 21 chance which equates to 52%. Deduct their 10% over round (profit margin) and they think there’s about a 47% chance. So they actually think we are more likely to stop up than go down. Hmm... I know what you're saying, but if that reasoning is applied to every club, only one would be relegated this season. The odds suggest that they / the market believe(s) we're the next most likely (after our already-relegated neighbours) to face the drop. I don't think we are the next most likely. I think the market / bookies have that wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 We’ve been in the bottom three all season. That is why we’re seen as a good bet to go down. Punters forget the start we had and therefore the need to produce mid table-play off form to give us the chance we now have to avoid relegation. We’ll win games, we’ll lose games. We don’t do draws and in all fairness given where we were we couldn’t afford to. To go to a side that will hang in for a draw now will be difficult. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elyowl1 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 19 minutes ago, Geörge Whitebread said: Hmm... I know what you're saying, but if that reasoning is applied to every club, only one would be relegated this season. The odds suggest that they / the market believe(s) we're the next most likely (after our already-relegated neighbours) to face the drop. I don't think we are the next most likely. I think the market / bookies have that wrong. As much as we all agree , the bookies are using form over the whole season and as such we are next favourites to go down. I will be placing my bets after Saturday , our odds to stay up will be longer if we to lose to Ipswich , however I suspect we will get enough points from the other games to stay up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hirstys Salopettes Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 34 minutes ago, Geörge Whitebread said: Sorry HS, but I hate this mentality. We're below them both. We can't afford to have "avoiding defeat" as a target or even to deem it as good enough. We need to win both of those games because there are only so many opportunities like that left. Our next game is one it would be great to avoid defeat in. I'd take that. But against opposition we need to be finishing above, we need victories. you not seen Blackburn’s fixtures? they’re knackered if they don’t beat us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owls-swfc Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, @owlstalk said: We ARE staying up Say We ARE staying up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniele Giovanni Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 13 hours ago, Geörge Whitebread said: The bookies seem to be pretty convinced that we'll be joining Rotherham in League One next season. Are those of us that think we have a strong chance of survival kidding ourselves? As a related aside, they think Huddersfield or QPR will finish 3rd from bottom, maybe Plymouth, Blackburn or Birmingham; but almost certainly not Stoke. I don't get that. QPR have won twice as many points as Stoke in their respective last 10 games. Is "form" less relevant than we think/hope it is? Bookies are human just like me and you, so they do make mistakes now and again, and this is one of them there, Wednesday are staying up 100% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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