Relegation Odds

[Geörge Whitebread]

11 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

That’s not correct.

 

The bookies think there is a 100% chance that two teams will go down in addition to Rotherham.

 

They think there’s a 47% chance that we are one of the two.

 

Obvs!  

 

But none of that makes what I said incorrect. You've just misunderstood the point. 

 

I get that the chances of any given side being relegated is spread across all that can possibly drop; but your initial assertions were that "the bookies are far from convinced that we will go down" and that "we are more likely to stop up than go down".

 

The first point is not true because they see us as the most likely club other than Rotherham, even if it is less than 50% - because the odds are spread across more than two eventualities!

 

And, to restate the point that I previously made about your second assertion... if you extend that logic to Blackburn (even more likely to stop up than us), and Plymouth (as above), and every other club except Rotherham. So, the point is moot because we remain the second most likely to be relegated as far as the bookies are concerned. 

 

 

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

1 hour ago, Geörge Whitebread said:

 

Obvs!  

 

But none of that makes what I said incorrect. You've just misunderstood the point. 

 

I get that the chances of any given side being relegated is spread across all that can possibly drop; but your initial assertions were that "the bookies are far from convinced that we will go down" and that "we are more likely to stop up than go down".

 

The first point is not true because they see us as the most likely club other than Rotherham, even if it is less than 50% - because the odds are spread across more than two eventualities!

 

And, to restate the point that I previously made about your second assertion... if you extend that logic to Blackburn (even more likely to stop up than us), and Plymouth (as above), and every other club except Rotherham. So, the point is moot because we remain the second most likely to be relegated as far as the bookies are concerned. 

 

 

As we are second from bottom with a terrible goal difference and an upcoming fixture away at Ipswich - I would say that’s a reasonable assertion.