Relegation Odds

[nbupperthongowl]

1 hour ago, doubleo said:

If you look at games won you have to go up to 13th, Bristol, before you get to a team that’s won more games than us. It’s going to be tight but we can do it.

 

 

 

This....wins are vital at this time of the season as they say draws kill you

 

Beat ( I know) QPR, Stoke and Blackburn and the job looks a lot easier, maybe need another 4/5 points?

[Hirstys Salopettes]

19 minutes ago, Hirstys Salopettes said:

you not seen Blackburn’s fixtures? 
 

they’re knackered if they don’t beat us

55 minutes ago, Geörge Whitebread said:

 

Sorry HS, but I hate this mentality. 

 

We're below them both. We can't afford to have "avoiding defeat" as a target or even to deem it as good enough. We need to win both of those games because there are only so many opportunities like that left. 

 

Our next game is one it would be great to avoid defeat in. I'd take that. But against opposition we need to be finishing above, we need victories. 

 

 

 

 

let me expand my rationale 

 

I expect us to lose at Ipswich and middlesborough

 

like ourselves, QPR and Blackburn don’t have to play Rotherham ... we are their easiest remaining home game 

 

my ‘do not lose’ gives us 2 points 

 

I’d back us to get 7 (minimum) at home out of Swansea, Stoke, WBA, Norwich 
 

so we’re sat on 47 points (minimum) going to Sunderland with probably the worst goal difference 

 

I also think we get something at Sunderland if necessary 
 

no way are we down with 50 points, I’ll even stick my neck out and say 48 points 
 

another Huddersfield style result at loftus road or ewood park and we’re pretty much done for ... Thats my major concern 

 

so that’s why I’d be happy to not get beat away at our relegation rivals 

 

now if our home form falters against Swansea and Stoke (which are must wins), then of course the position changes and we have to win at ewood park to make up the lost points 

for what it’s worth I 100 percent think we win at ewood regardless, they’re done in my book 
 

QPR not so sure but their home form is not great (they’re currently above the trap door by virtue of an absolute fluke at Leicester where they got absolutely battered) 
 

knowing us we will lose all four at home and win all four away !

 

 

 

 

 

[New Zealand Owls]

2 hours ago, Holmowl said:

If form is your measure (as it should be imo) then we survive.

 

Take the form of the bottom 8 teams over any sensible number of matches and we would stay up if that continues to May.

 

I can’t see anything in our recent performances that suggests our form will deteriorate. We look tighter defensively, more resilient and in Beadle, Ugbo and Poveda we’ve strengthened the starting Xl immeasurably.

 

The only thing that makes me doubt is my natural pessimism as a football fan. But we should be optimistic. Our form over the past 4 months is not a blip. No reason whatsoever that it should drop. 

Injuries and suspensions could scupper our general optimism.

[Geörge Whitebread]

1 hour ago, 1952Owl said:

George 

 

The way I see it is this...... 

 

After Saturday at Ipswich where we will lose sorry..... that leaves us with 8 games left. We then need 12+ points, so a 50% hit rate from those final 8 games. 

 

We have 4 HOME games left. 

Stoke + Swansea are winnable. 

+

Best chance of an away win(s) could be at QPR +/or Blackburn? 

 

I still think we will dig out more DRAWS

 

PS - I have said a few times now..... 

I think Blackburn will get "sucked into" relegation tussle.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I'm not a fan of the drawing to survive line of thinking. I know you're not saying it's what we'll set out to do. I just don't think my heart can take that. 

 

Playing very much on the front foot is the way forward, imho. Fortunately, Danny seems to agree. 

 

Hopefully we'll win enough to survive because I don't think we can do it just by avoiding defeats. 

 

I say this mainly because I expect us to lose against Ipswich, West Brom and probably Norwich too... all gunning for promotion. 

 

That leaves us with 6 games. Drawing 4+ puts us bang in trouble. 

[Geörge Whitebread]

1 hour ago, Hirstys Salopettes said:

you not seen Blackburn’s fixtures? 
 

they’re knackered if they don’t beat us 

 

 

 

 

They're even more knackered if we beat them. 

 

But, more importantly, we stand a better chance of not joining them and Rotherham.

 

They're beatable and we need the points. 

 

[Harrysgame]

I hope I'm wrong  just have a nagging doubt the GD will do for us. Hope I'm wrong or we also lose DR as well no way he stays for the Pub league.

 

Avoiding relegation is so important this season.

[Geörge Whitebread]

39 minutes ago, Hirstys Salopettes said:

 

let me expand my rationale...

 

I’d back us to get 7 (minimum) at home out of Swansea, Stoke, WBA, Norwich 

 

 

 

Including West Brom and even Norwich in a group of games you're looking to get your points from is where our opinions diverge really. 

 

I think we stand a better chance against nothing-to-play-for Boro, personally. 

 

If you'd said "avoid defeat" against promotion-chasing WBA and Norwich, rather than free-falling Blackburn, I wouldn't have questioned it. 

 

 

39 minutes ago, Hirstys Salopettes said:

another Huddersfield style result 

 

We can't afford another one of these full stop!

 

 

 

Each to their own though. This sort of speculation is what a fans forum is all about.

 

[ChapSmurf]

For all those talking of draws, have you seen Röhl's managerial stats: Played 29, drawn 3.

 

Which ever way you look at it, that's an incredibly low number. Look at our game against Stoke as a prime example of Röhl's mentality. Had Moore been in charge of that game, he'd have most likely set us up from around 70 minutes to contain and get a point. But Röhl on 79 minutes, brought on 2 more attacking/forward players, to bolster our attack. This is after he's already brought on Musaba on 58 minutes for Cadz.

Draws kill you in many ways, and I think part of the reason we're actually still in with a shout of survival is due to the lack of them. Personally, I'm in the "must not lose" camp against our relegation rivals, but I very much doubt that's DR's take on it.

 

I can almost hear Yoda saying "Win. Or do not win. There is no draw". Danny Röhl is Yoda - although I'd guess a bit younger, slightly taller and without the ears.

[Jim]

FWIW I think if we can score first in most of the games between now and the end of the season, we’ll win them. We probably should be down by now but we’re not. We just have to take each game as it comes. Our mindset as a team will be stronger than a lot of teams down the bottom.

[maidstoneowl]

 

 

 

Opta analysis suggests we'll miss out on survival by 1 point.

 

Would be absolutely gutting for us all, would rather miss out by 3-4 points (or stay up on GD/1 point of course!)

 

 

[oh_weds_we_love_you]

15 hours ago, Geörge Whitebread said:

The bookies seem to be pretty convinced that we'll be joining Rotherham in League One next season.

 

Are those of us that think we have a strong chance of survival kidding ourselves?

 

As a related aside, they think Huddersfield or QPR will finish 3rd from bottom, maybe Plymouth, Blackburn or Birmingham; but almost certainly not Stoke. 

 

I don't get that. QPR have won twice as many points as Stoke in their respective last 10 games. Is "form" less relevant than we think/hope it is? 

 

Our form is good and our fixtures, on paper, look favourable. 

 

Booking are going based on current league positions. It'll change if we move out of the bottom 3 (like it has for Stoke now).

[ChapSmurf]

20 minutes ago, maidstoneowl said:

Opta analysis suggests we'll miss out on survival by 1 point.

 

Would be absolutely gutting for us all, would rather miss out by 3-4 points (or stay up on GD/1 point of course!)

 

It's more than that. It's 1.8 points, as that is what we would need to go above Huddersfield's 49.8. Getting just one point, based on this analysis, would leave us on 49.1, third from bottom.

[BIG D]

I think there’s every chance we will catch Blackburn who still have all the top 4 to play as well as us but the advantage these teams have is that they all have more points than us already in the bank (even if it is just 1). Get Ipswich out of the way and if we get something then fantastic. If not then we have to go on a very good run for the last 8 games. We can’t afford a run of 3 defeats etc. 

[oh_weds_we_love_you]

6 minutes ago, BIG D said:

I think there’s every chance we will catch Blackburn who still have all the top 4 to play as well as us but the advantage these teams have is that they all have more points than us already in the bank (even if it is just 1). Get Ipswich out of the way and if we get something then fantastic. If not then we have to go on a very good run for the last 8 games. We can’t afford a run of 3 defeats etc. 

 

What I'd give for us to go 0-2 up at Portman Road this season - even if it ended 2-2 again! Be delighted!

[slinger208b]

16 hours ago, Geörge Whitebread said:

The bookies seem to be pretty convinced that we'll be joining Rotherham in League One next season.

 

Are those of us that think we have a strong chance of survival kidding ourselves?

 

As a related aside, they think Huddersfield or QPR will finish 3rd from bottom, maybe Plymouth, Blackburn or Birmingham; but almost certainly not Stoke. 

 

I don't get that. QPR have won twice as many points as Stoke in their respective last 10 games. Is "form" less relevant than we think/hope it is? 

 

...

[Sova]

53 minutes ago, maidstoneowl said:

Opta analysis suggests we'll miss out on survival by 1 point.

 

Would be absolutely gutting for us all, would rather miss out by 3-4 points (or stay up on GD/1 point of course!)

We found out last season how unpredictable football can be, but I'd pretty disappointed, and surprised, if we only got 10 or 11 points from our last 9 games. Since Blackburn, we've got 31 from 19, and, taking account of the number of home and away fixtures, if we continue that form we should finish on around 52. 

[Tommy Crawshaw]

6 hours ago, Hirstys Salopettes said:

Spot on @Holmowl

 

avoiding defeat at lotus road and ewood park is key imo 

 

4 hours ago, Geörge Whitebread said:

 

Sorry HS, but I hate this mentality. 

 

We're below them both. We can't afford to have "avoiding defeat" as a target or even to deem it as good enough. We need to win both of those games because there are only so many opportunities like that left. 

 

Our next game is one it would be great to avoid defeat in. I'd take that. But against opposition we need to be finishing above, we need victories. 

 

 

 

 

I agree with Hirstys.

 

We simply can't afford to lose the '6 pointers' against Blackburn, QPR and Stoke.

 

Winning those games would be brilliant but draws wouldn't be the end of the world. Providing we can win 3/4 of the other games.

 

If we had drawn at Huddersfield, we'd be now 3 points above them with a better goal difference, and level on points with QPR and Birmingham. 

[1952Owl]

As I have said several times..... 

Blackburn likely to get "sucked into" relegation fight. 

 

Without Szmodics, I believe they would deffo be at risk of bottom 3.

What a player he is. Envious. 

+

I am NOT advocating we play for Draws. We play to WIN each game. 

But in "nervy" games, my gutt feel is Draws will happen. Not ideal, but better than losing. 

 

WIN CULTURE. WIN CULTURE. 

Yes. But be realistic, we will not win every game left now. 

[BIG D]

Paddy Power from this time last year following our win at Pompey

 

[Geörge Whitebread]

3 hours ago, ChapSmurf said:

For all those talking of draws, have you seen Röhl's managerial stats: Played 29, drawn 3.

 

Which ever way you look at it, that's an incredibly low number. Look at our game against Stoke as a prime example of Röhl's mentality. Had Moore been in charge of that game, he'd have most likely set us up from around 70 minutes to contain and get a point. But Röhl on 79 minutes, brought on 2 more attacking/forward players, to bolster our attack. This is after he's already brought on Musaba on 58 minutes for Cadz.

Draws kill you in many ways, and I think part of the reason we're actually still in with a shout of survival is due to the lack of them. Personally, I'm in the "must not lose" camp against our relegation rivals, but I very much doubt that's DR's take on it.

 

I can almost hear Yoda saying "Win. Or do not win. There is no draw". Danny Röhl is Yoda - although I'd guess a bit younger, slightly taller and without the ears.

I'm with Danny. 

Stuff draws. They're almost as bad as defeats. ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK!!!