How many points to stay up?

[TodwickOwl]

Well everyone who could go into the bottom 3 potentially from Plymouth down has only won 1 in 5 including us

 

That doesn’t seem to me like everyone is going to suddenly win 3 or 4 out of the last 5 - when teams have to play each other down there. 
 

If we beat Stoke and Blackburn and a draw somewhere I think we’ll be good. There will be 1 or 2 teams in that lot who don’t get more than 3/4 points based on current form.

 

 

[Tommy Crawshaw]

2 hours ago, 0742 said:

 

I tend to agree with this. 

 

Whilst it's normal to solely focus on what we've got to do, we should also consider what other teams around us have to do as well. 

 

Our form and average points per game over the last 30 games is 1.3 points, but what's most interesting is that for the past 30 games, none of our rivals are even close to us in terms of average points per game.

 

Birmingham 0.8

Millwall 0.966

Huddersfield 1.066

Plymouth 1.1

 

If we carry on our form under Röhl and the others carry on their form, we should stay up. We've performed like a mid-table team since Röhl came in and the others around us have been very poor.

 

I really think form over the last 30 games doesn't matter now, they've gone.

 

The 4 teams you've mentioned have all recently got new managers in, which changes how they play.

 

It's a mini league now over 5 games and we are bottom of it. Its going to be a crazy 4 weeks 

 

 

[DSandersonOWL]

You may be surprised to know that how many points we need to avoid relegation depends on Udders and Others results. 

Take it one game at a time, as the great Bill Shankly used to say !

[DSandersonOWL]

51 minutes ago, Tommy Crawshaw said:

 

I really think form over the last 30 games doesn't matter now, they've gone.

 

The 4 teams you've mentioned have all recently got new managers in, which changes how they play.

 

It's a mini league now over 5 games and we are bottom of it. Its going to be a crazy 4 weeks 

 

 

Very exciting, nothing like an intense relegation battle. Mid-table is so boring.

[maidstoneowl]

Quite obviously all going to be decided on the last day of the season and like us, Udders n co. are experiencing mini-revivals.  It's like a 5 match relegation play-off mini-league where 2 from 6 go down with the Mini-Pigs.

[Shiregreenowl 80]

One more point then 3rd bottom should do it 

[maidstoneowl]

Surely even the likes of Swansea are looking over their shoulders and need 2 or 3 positive results from the final 5 games, to know they are truly safe?

 

 

[HootHoot]

We're all fretting about West Brom but by the time we play them, they might actually have nothing to play for. They've got a playoff campaign to prepare for and I doubt they would risk key players in a dead rubber game for them.

 

Two wins and a draw keeps us up. Beat Stoke and Blackburn. A draw against West Brom and/or Norwich and we're fine. 

 

Let's go to that Sunderland game 4 points clear and for the first time this season we can actually relax when watching us play

[CircleSeven]

16 minutes ago, HootHoot said:

Let's go to that Sunderland game 4 points clear and for the first time this season we can actually relax when watching us play

I think we al know there is zero chance of that happening. It’s definitely going to the last game. But if we can at least go into that game out of the bottom three with others having to better our result I’d say we’d have done pretty well. 

[HootHoot]

23 minutes ago, CircleSeven said:

I think we al know there is zero chance of that happening. It’s definitely going to the last game. But if we can at least go into that game out of the bottom three with others having to better our result I’d say we’d have done pretty well. 

Highly unlikely. We'd have to gain 5 points over Huddersfield in 5 games to be in with a shot of safety before the last game. 

 

I just want one game of football this season where I don't have to bite my nails the whole way through 

[maidstoneowl]

47-53 points?

[wisewoodowl]

52, win our home games and not lose at Blackburn, easy.

[Costello 77]

1 hour ago, DSandersonOWL said:

You may be surprised to know that how many points we need to avoid relegation depends on Udders and Others results. 

Take it one game at a time, as the great Bill Shankly used to say !

That sonic boom I just heard was you launching another cliché missile from the heart of cliché city.

[lukeyswfc]

It’s crackers that we are still in with a chance.

 

Norwich have some great players but have been very poor away from home.

 

If we get a point there with other results going for us it’s gonna be tense.

 

Cant call it.

Thought Millwall were safe 3 games ago then lost to Rotherham and Hudders.

[duncanidaho]

5 hours ago, 0742 said:

 

I tend to agree with this. 

 

Whilst it's normal to solely focus on what we've got to do, we should also consider what other teams around us have to do as well. 

 

Our form and average points per game over the last 30 games is 1.3 points, but what's most interesting is that for the past 30 games, none of our rivals are even close to us in terms of average points per game.

 

Birmingham 0.8

Millwall 0.966

Huddersfield 1.066

Plymouth 1.1

 

If we carry on our form under Röhl and the others carry on their form, we should stay up. We've performed like a mid-table team since Röhl came in and the others around us have been very poor.

owl in black has a thread going on showing the PPG for the last 15 games.  if the ppg's across the board remain the same ish, we should just make it  

 

 

[duncanidaho]

18 hours ago, Herbie Owl said:

I think with our poor goal difference and the way things are going we are gonna need 50 points, two wins and two draws should do it out of our last five. Still a big ask but a win on Tuesday would be a massive boost. What does everyone else think ?

48 points    two more wins.....

[PortlandOwl]

Two upcoming home matches will definitely make or break our season in my opinion. 

[Geörge Whitebread]

.

 

Edited April 7 by Geörge Whitebread

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

2 minutes ago, Geörge Whitebread said:

.

 

We'll need more than one point.

 

[max_7654]

Got thinking about this after the game yesterday and decided to run a few PPG projections of my own. Tried all sorts of variations/allowances etc and tried to put a bit more weighting on recent form but generally 49 points seems to keep coming up as the magic number.

 

Something like the below seems the most typical kind of outcome: (current points in brackets) 

QPR (46) - 54 (3W, 2L)

Swansea (47) - 52 (1W, 2D, 2L) 

Stoke (46) - 52 (2W, 3L)

Blackburn (46) - 51 (1W, 2D, 2L)

Plymouth (44) - 49 (1W, 2D, 2L)

Huddersfield (43) - 49 (2W, 3L)

Sheff Wed (42) - 49 (2W, 1D, 2L)

R - Milwall (44) - 48 (1W, 1D, 3L)

R - Birmingham (42) - 48 (2W, 3L) 

 

Anything could happen in these final 5 games but as things stand it looks most likely to be any two from us, Birmingham, Millwall, Huddersfield and Plymouth for the final two relegation spots. 

• Plymouth - Bit of an unknown quantity with the new management set-up; could go either way. Home form seems key for them but still got QPR, Leicester, Hull to play at home. 
• Huddersfield – Steadily picking up points but very inconsistent. More draws than any other team in the league which could be what costs them. Huddersfield v Birmingham as penultimate game potentially massive. 
• Millwall – Initial bounce since re-appointing Harris seems to be over. Back into freefall last 4-5 games, fans seem largely accepting of relegation; currently one of the favourites to go down. 
• Birmingham – Fans seems largely positive about yesterday’s performance despite the loss. Would expect Rowett to scrape a few results but unclear if he has enough time to turn things around. 

My thoughts: 

48 points – Could be enough. Likely to be very tight and could come down to GD which would probably see us relegated. 25%-35% chance of staying up. 

49 points – Should just about do it. Likely to result in a nerve-shredding finale at Sunderland. 50%-60% chance of staying up.

50 points – Likely to be enough; should be our target given the GD handicap. 75%-85% chance of staying up.