Owly Mowly Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 I love some stats, and I actually read that from start to finish!! So, a win, and 2 draws would put us in a good place - I'm just going to get on booking.com for next May now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonofbert2 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Basically we need a point from the next 3 games and we're up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owlandished Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 I was waiting for this season's instalment. Thanks. We are currently on 19 points after 12 matches. Should we lose the next 3 games, our chances of reaching the play offs will be low. However, should we win the next 3, we will be still a little way off what other automatically promoted teams achieved after 15 games, apart from Bournemouth in the 2014-15 season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helmut_rooster Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 26 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: For the fourth season running here is my 15 match thread (which I always do after 10 matches - 2 late this season). We have now played 12 matches. Despite what people say about one team always coming from nowhere - this is absolute rubbish. It hardly ever happens! As a general rule if you are not within touching distance after 15 matches, you rarely make the top 6. Indeed, I will go on to show that unless you have at least 20 points after 15 matches you can practically forget it. IN ACTUAL FACT IF YOU GET BELOW 20 POINTS IN ANY THIRD OF THE SEASON IT MAKES LIFE VERY DIFFICULT FOR YOU! Table last season after 15 matches Wolves 32 Cardiff 31 pigs 30 Bristol City 27 Villa 26 Derby 25 Boro 23 Leeds 23 Norwich 22 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 7 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 16/17:- Newcastle 34 Brighton 31 Huddersfield 28 Norwich 27 Reading 25 Bristol C 24 Birmingham 24 Wednesday 24 Leeds 23 Brentford 22 Fulham 21 Barnsley 20 Preston 20 QPR 19 Villa 18 Ipswich 18 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 8 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 15/16:- Hull 31 Burnley 31 Brighton 31 Derby 30 Boro 30 Brum 25 Reading 24 Wednesday 24 Cardiff 22 Ipswich 21 Brentford 20 Fulham 20 Familiar look to the final table? The top 5 after 15 matches finished in the top 5. Wednesday finished 6th and were 8th after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches in 14/15 Watford 29 Bournemouth 27 Boro 27 Wolves 27 Derby 26 Norwich 26 Blackburn 25 Ipswich 24 Watford and Bournemouth went on to finish in the top 2. Norwich, Boro and Ipswich finished in the top 6. SO IN THE LAST FOUR SEASONS - 21 OF THE 24 TEAMS THAT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP SIX HAVE BEEN EIGHTH OR HIGHER AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES! ALL EIGHT TEAMS THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE TOP TWO AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES HAVE GONE ON TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX! SEVEN OF THE EIGHT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP TWO! This is the top 6 for last season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Wolves 99-32-36-31 Cardiff 90-31-24-35 Fulham 88-19-32-37 Villa 83-26-30-27 Boro 76-23-22-31 Derby 75-25-32-18 As you will see below, this is an unusual season. Fulham made the play offs despite getting less than 20 points in the first 15 matches. This rarely occurs! Also, Derby only got 18 points in their final 16 matches and still made it. This is the top 6 for the 16/17 season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Brighton 92- 31-30-31 Newcastle 91-34-31-26 Reading 85-25-31-26 Wednesday 81-24-28-29 Huddersfield 81-28-30-23 Fulham 80-21-25-34 So in 16/17 the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Fulham with 21 in the first third. and just for a chuckle you see where Leeds went wrong. Leeds 74-23-31-20 This is the top 6 for 2015-16 broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Burnley 93 - 31 - 24 - 38 Boro 89 - 30 - 28 - 31 Brighton 89 - 31 - 25 - 33 Hull 83 - 31 - 28 - 24 Derby 78 - 30 - 21 - 27 Wednesday 74 - 24 - 26 - 24 So in 15/16, the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Derby with 21 in the second third. Below is the top 6 for the season 2014-15 with the same breakdown:- Bournemouth 90-27-31-32 Watford 89-29-24-36 Norwich 86-26-24-36 Middlesbrough 85-27-32-26 Brentford 78-22-30-26 Ipswich 78-24-27-27 Again, there is only one team (Brentford) to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs. In 14/15 Derby suddenly fell away, showing that unless you have an exceptional 15 matches you really can't afford a mediocre 15 matches (77-26-31-20) Points needed to reach play offs followed by points total of the 6th team after the first 15 games: 2017/18 = 75 (Derby). First 15 games had 25 points 2016/17 = 80 (Fulham). First 15 games Fulham had 21 points 2015/16 = 74 (Wednesday). First 15 games Wednesday had 24 2014/15 = 78 (Ipswich). First 15 games Ipswich had 24. 2013/14 = 72 (Brighton). First 15 games Brighton had 21. 2012/13 = 68 (Leicester). First 15 games Leicester had 26. 2011/12 = 75 (Cardiff). First 15 games Cardiff had 24. 2010/11 = 75 (Notts Forest). First 15 games Notts Forest had 20. 6th spot average over 8 years = 74.6 6th spot teams after 15 games = 23.2 So in conclusion, it is highly unlikely that any team that has under 20 points after 15 matches will make the play offs. Ideally, you want at least 24 points. In the last four years, if you are going to make the top 2, you need at least 27 points. We currently have 19 points from 12 matches. Are we confident of getting to at least 24? Our next 3 matches to take us to 15 are:- H v Boro A v QPR A v Brum Extreme Examples:- Every season I have done this people have tried to come up with extreme examples. And there are a few but they are never as extreme as people remembered:- Palace under Dowie 73 points - 16-25-32 Sunderland under Keane 88 points - 19 - 27 -42 Reading 89-18-33-38 Blackpool 70-24-16-30 They are the only extreme examples I can find in 20 years (plus Fulham last season). By extreme I mean less than 20 points in either the first or second third. So in 20 years, only FOUR teams have had less than 20 points after the first fifteen matches and made the top 6! Blimey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted October 8, 2018 Author Share Posted October 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Willow Owl said: Fkin hell Hirsty. Did you start to post that yesterday 3 years ago. Then I just copy, paste and edit every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torryowl Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 get as many points as we can then after 46 games tot up how many we got and hope it's enough seems a lot simpler to me . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inspector Lestrade Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, torryowl said: get as many points as we can then after 46 games tot up how many we got and hope it's enough seems a lot simpler to me . Novel idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted October 8, 2018 Author Share Posted October 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, torryowl said: get as many points as we can then after 46 games tot up how many we got and hope it's enough seems a lot simpler to me . I’m pretty sure that’s what every team will do. im just telling everybody that after 15 matches approximately 12 teams will have less than 20 points. Over 20 seasons that is 240 teams. Of those 240 teams, 4 have gone on to finish in the top 6. 236 of the 240 have not made the top 6. So basically, the teams with less than 20 points after 15 matches have a 1 in 60 chance of making the play offs. Some will find that interesting. Others like you won’t. fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torryowl Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Watson said: Novel idea works everytime ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inspector Lestrade Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: I’m pretty sure that’s what every team will do. im just telling everybody that after 15 matches approximately 12 teams will have less than 20 points. Over 20 seasons that is 240 teams. Of those 240 teams, 4 have gone on to finish in the top 6. 236 of the 240 have not made the top 6. So basically, the teams with less than 20 points after 15 matches have a 1 in 60 chance of making the play offs. Some will find that interesting. Others like you won’t. fair enough. So what you trying to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post hawksmore Posted October 8, 2018 Popular Post Share Posted October 8, 2018 People who quote such a long post then add one word, are statistically more likely to be bell ends. 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhubarb n Custard Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: I’m pretty sure that’s what every team will do. im just telling everybody that after 15 matches approximately 12 teams will have less than 20 points. Over 20 seasons that is 240 teams. Of those 240 teams, 4 have gone on to finish in the top 6. 236 of the 240 have not made the top 6. So basically, the teams with less than 20 points after 15 matches have a 1 in 60 chance of making the play offs. Some will find that interesting. Others like you won’t. fair enough. I like this version better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shezzas left peg Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 So what your saying is anything more than a point in the next three and we're going to end up in the playoffs?? 5 points from our next 3 (draw Borough, brum, beat Qpr and without spending millions and discarding half of Carlos expensive flops and well be on 24 points the same tally as Carlos two playoff campaigns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torryowl Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: I’m pretty sure that’s what every team will do. im just telling everybody that after 15 matches approximately 12 teams will have less than 20 points. Over 20 seasons that is 240 teams. Of those 240 teams, 4 have gone on to finish in the top 6. 236 of the 240 have not made the top 6. So basically, the teams with less than 20 points after 15 matches have a 1 in 60 chance of making the play offs. Some will find that interesting. Others like you won’t. fair enough. I never said it wasn't interesting ….I just don't think it proves much ..if we lost the next 3 we'd probably be 7 points outside the play offs with 31 games to go . I don't see that as an unsurmountable gap to make up . I'd guess quite a few sides have made the play offs from 7 points behind with that amount of games still to be played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah Owl Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 You're making far too many points with that post Hirsty but I lost count as to whether you clocked up 20 or more so I've no idea if you are going to make the play offs or not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owlandished Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, torryowl said: I never said it wasn't interesting ….I just don't think it proves much ..if we lost the next 3 we'd probably be 7 points outside the play offs with 31 games to go . I don't see that as an unsurmountable gap to make up . I'd guess quite a few sides have made the play offs from 7 points behind with that amount of games still to be played Apparently not Edited October 8, 2018 by owlandished 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted October 8, 2018 Author Share Posted October 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, torryowl said: I never said it wasn't interesting ….I just don't think it proves much ..if we lost the next 3 we'd probably be 7 points outside the play offs with 31 games to go . I don't see that as an unsurmountable gap to make up . I'd guess quite a few sides have made the play offs from 7 points behind with that amount of games still to be played I don’t think they will have. Only four teams with less than 20 points have made it. On average the team that is 6th will have 23 points. in the last 20 seasons not one team that is on less than 16 points has made the top 6. I think your assumptions are incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: 6th spot teams after 15 games = 23.2 Thanks, love stats and probabilities ... So if we get at least 4 points from the next 3 games, we are almost nailed on to finish top 6. Though just 3 wouldn't completely rule us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torryowl Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 minute ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: I don’t think they will have. Only four teams with less than 20 points have made it. On average the team that is 6th will have 23 points. in the last 20 seasons not one team that is on less than 16 points has made the top 6. I think your assumptions are incorrect. so no team as made up a 7 point gap with 31 games left to make the play offs …...I find that hard to believe but if you have done the research then i'll have to believe you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilbyj Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Love this. MOAR STATS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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