Popular Post HirstWhoScoredIt Posted October 8, 2018 Popular Post Share Posted October 8, 2018 (edited) For the fourth season running here is my 15 match thread (which I always do after 10 matches - 2 late this season). We have now played 12 matches. Despite what people say about one team always coming from nowhere - this is absolute rubbish. It hardly ever happens! As a general rule if you are not within touching distance after 15 matches, you rarely make the top 6. Indeed, I will go on to show that unless you have at least 20 points after 15 matches you can practically forget it. IN ACTUAL FACT IF YOU GET BELOW 20 POINTS IN ANY THIRD OF THE SEASON IT MAKES LIFE VERY DIFFICULT FOR YOU! Table last season after 15 matches Wolves 32 Cardiff 31 pigs 30 Bristol City 27 Villa 26 Derby 25 Boro 23 Leeds 23 Norwich 22 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 7 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 16/17:- Newcastle 34 Brighton 31 Huddersfield 28 Norwich 27 Reading 25 Bristol C 24 Birmingham 24 Wednesday 24 Leeds 23 Brentford 22 Fulham 21 Barnsley 20 Preston 20 QPR 19 Villa 18 Ipswich 18 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 8 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 15/16:- Hull 31 Burnley 31 Brighton 31 Derby 30 Boro 30 Brum 25 Reading 24 Wednesday 24 Cardiff 22 Ipswich 21 Brentford 20 Fulham 20 Familiar look to the final table? The top 5 after 15 matches finished in the top 5. Wednesday finished 6th and were 8th after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches in 14/15 Watford 29 Bournemouth 27 Boro 27 Wolves 27 Derby 26 Norwich 26 Blackburn 25 Ipswich 24 Watford and Bournemouth went on to finish in the top 2. Norwich, Boro and Ipswich finished in the top 6. SO IN THE LAST FOUR SEASONS - 21 OF THE 24 TEAMS THAT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP SIX HAVE BEEN EIGHTH OR HIGHER AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES! ALL EIGHT TEAMS THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE TOP TWO AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES HAVE GONE ON TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX! SEVEN OF THE EIGHT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP TWO! This is the top 6 for last season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Wolves 99-32-36-31 Cardiff 90-31-24-35 Fulham 88-19-32-37 Villa 83-26-30-27 Boro 76-23-22-31 Derby 75-25-32-18 As you will see below, this is an unusual season. Fulham made the play offs despite getting less than 20 points in the first 15 matches. This rarely occurs! Also, Derby only got 18 points in their final 16 matches and still made it. This is the top 6 for the 16/17 season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Brighton 92- 31-30-31 Newcastle 91-34-31-26 Reading 85-25-31-26 Wednesday 81-24-28-29 Huddersfield 81-28-30-23 Fulham 80-21-25-34 So in 16/17 the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Fulham with 21 in the first third. and just for a chuckle you see where Leeds went wrong. Leeds 74-23-31-20 This is the top 6 for 2015-16 broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Burnley 93 - 31 - 24 - 38 Boro 89 - 30 - 28 - 31 Brighton 89 - 31 - 25 - 33 Hull 83 - 31 - 28 - 24 Derby 78 - 30 - 21 - 27 Wednesday 74 - 24 - 26 - 24 So in 15/16, the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Derby with 21 in the second third. Below is the top 6 for the season 2014-15 with the same breakdown:- Bournemouth 90-27-31-32 Watford 89-29-24-36 Norwich 86-26-24-36 Middlesbrough 85-27-32-26 Brentford 78-22-30-26 Ipswich 78-24-27-27 Again, there is only one team (Brentford) to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs. In 14/15 Derby suddenly fell away, showing that unless you have an exceptional 15 matches you really can't afford a mediocre 15 matches (77-26-31-20) Points needed to reach play offs followed by points total of the 6th team after the first 15 games: 2017/18 = 75 (Derby). First 15 games had 25 points 2016/17 = 80 (Fulham). First 15 games Fulham had 21 points 2015/16 = 74 (Wednesday). First 15 games Wednesday had 24 2014/15 = 78 (Ipswich). First 15 games Ipswich had 24. 2013/14 = 72 (Brighton). First 15 games Brighton had 21. 2012/13 = 68 (Leicester). First 15 games Leicester had 26. 2011/12 = 75 (Cardiff). First 15 games Cardiff had 24. 2010/11 = 75 (Notts Forest). First 15 games Notts Forest had 20. 6th spot average over 8 years = 74.6 6th spot teams after 15 games = 23.2 So in conclusion, it is highly unlikely that any team that has under 20 points after 15 matches will make the play offs. Ideally, you want at least 24 points. In the last four years, if you are going to make the top 2, you need at least 27 points. We currently have 19 points from 12 matches. Are we confident of getting to at least 24? Our next 3 matches to take us to 15 are:- H v Boro A v QPR A v Brum Extreme Examples:- Every season I have done this people have tried to come up with extreme examples. And there are a few but they are never as extreme as people remembered:- Palace under Dowie 73 points - 16-25-32 Sunderland under Keane 88 points - 19 - 27 -42 Reading 89-18-33-38 Blackpool 70-24-16-30 They are the only extreme examples I can find in 20 years (plus Fulham last season). By extreme I mean less than 20 points in either the first or second third. So in 20 years, only FOUR teams have had less than 20 points after the first fifteen matches and made the top 6! Edited October 8, 2018 by HirstWhoScoredIt 8 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiJ Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Too long. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steelcityowlsfan Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Might have been worth coming to a conclusion after 15 games perhaps. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Key Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 (edited) Interesting stuff. Play-offs here we come then. Well done Jos and the boys. Nice to see just how badly the pigs fluffed it up last season! Same again please Wilderness! Edited October 8, 2018 by Key fluppin tiepo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GY-owl.4 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 the next 3 games are our most important of the season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CalmJimmers Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, SiJ said: Too long. Basically, get 5 points from our next 3 games and is chuffing coming home m8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beighton Owl 87 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 fizz me that hurt my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cognacbarnowl Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 FFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest addedtime Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Can you repeat that please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest addedtime Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: For the fourth season running here is my 15 match thread (which I always do after 10 matches - 2 late this season). We have now played 12 matches. Despite what people say about one team always coming from nowhere - this is absolute rubbish. It hardly ever happens! As a general rule if you are not within touching distance after 15 matches, you rarely make the top 6. Indeed, I will go on to show that unless you have at least 20 points after 15 matches you can practically forget it. IN ACTUAL FACT IF YOU GET BELOW 20 POINTS IN ANY THIRD OF THE SEASON IT MAKES LIFE VERY DIFFICULT FOR YOU! Table last season after 15 matches Wolves 32 Cardiff 31 pigs 30 Bristol City 27 Villa 26 Derby 25 Boro 23 Leeds 23 Norwich 22 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 7 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 16/17:- Newcastle 34 Brighton 31 Huddersfield 28 Norwich 27 Reading 25 Bristol C 24 Birmingham 24 Wednesday 24 Leeds 23 Brentford 22 Fulham 21 Barnsley 20 Preston 20 QPR 19 Villa 18 Ipswich 18 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 8 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 15/16:- Hull 31 Burnley 31 Brighton 31 Derby 30 Boro 30 Brum 25 Reading 24 Wednesday 24 Cardiff 22 Ipswich 21 Brentford 20 Fulham 20 Familiar look to the final table? The top 5 after 15 matches finished in the top 5. Wednesday finished 6th and were 8th after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches in 14/15 Watford 29 Bournemouth 27 Boro 27 Wolves 27 Derby 26 Norwich 26 Blackburn 25 Ipswich 24 Watford and Bournemouth went on to finish in the top 2. Norwich, Boro and Ipswich finished in the top 6. SO IN THE LAST FOUR SEASONS - 21 OF THE 24 TEAMS THAT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP SIX HAVE BEEN EIGHTH OR HIGHER AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES! ALL EIGHT TEAMS THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE TOP TWO AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES HAVE GONE ON TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX! SEVEN OF THE EIGHT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP TWO! This is the top 6 for last season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Wolves 99-32-36-31 Cardiff 90-31-24-35 Fulham 88-19-32-37 Villa 83-26-30-27 Boro 76-23-22-31 Derby 75-25-32-18 As you will see below, this is an unusual season. Fulham made the play offs despite getting less than 20 points in the first 15 matches. This rarely occurs! Also, Derby only got 18 points in their final 16 matches and still made it. This is the top 6 for the 16/17 season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Brighton 92- 31-30-31 Newcastle 91-34-31-26 Reading 85-25-31-26 Wednesday 81-24-28-29 Huddersfield 81-28-30-23 Fulham 80-21-25-34 So in 16/17 the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Fulham with 21 in the first third. and just for a chuckle you see where Leeds went wrong. Leeds 74-23-31-20 This is the top 6 for 2015-16 broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Burnley 93 - 31 - 24 - 38 Boro 89 - 30 - 28 - 31 Brighton 89 - 31 - 25 - 33 Hull 83 - 31 - 28 - 24 Derby 78 - 30 - 21 - 27 Wednesday 74 - 24 - 26 - 24 So in 15/16, the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Derby with 21 in the second third. Below is the top 6 for the season 2014-15 with the same breakdown:- Bournemouth 90-27-31-32 Watford 89-29-24-36 Norwich 86-26-24-36 Middlesbrough 85-27-32-26 Brentford 78-22-30-26 Ipswich 78-24-27-27 Again, there is only one team (Brentford) to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs. In 14/15 Derby suddenly fell away, showing that unless you have an exceptional 15 matches you really can't afford a mediocre 15 matches (77-26-31-20) Points needed to reach play offs followed by points total of the 6th team after the first 15 games: 2017/18 = 75 (Derby). First 15 games had 25 points 2016/17 = 80 (Fulham). First 15 games Fulham had 21 points 2015/16 = 74 (Wednesday). First 15 games Wednesday had 24 2014/15 = 78 (Ipswich). First 15 games Ipswich had 24. 2013/14 = 72 (Brighton). First 15 games Brighton had 21. 2012/13 = 68 (Leicester). First 15 games Leicester had 26. 2011/12 = 75 (Cardiff). First 15 games Cardiff had 24. 2010/11 = 75 (Notts Forest). First 15 games Notts Forest had 20. 6th spot average over 8 years = 74.6 6th spot teams after 15 games = 23.2 So in conclusion, it is highly unlikely that any team that has under 20 points after 15 matches will make the play offs. Ideally, you want at least 24 points. In the last four years, if you are going to make the top 2, you need at least 27 points. We currently have 19 points from 12 matches. Are we confident of getting to at least 24? Our next 3 matches to take us to 15 are:- H v Boro A v QPR A v Brum Extreme Examples:- Every season I have done this people have tried to come up with extreme examples. And there are a few but they are never as extreme as people remembered:- Palace under Dowie 73 points - 16-25-32 Sunderland under Keane 88 points - 19 - 27 -42 Reading 89-18-33-38 Blackpool 70-24-16-30 They are the only extreme examples I can find in 20 years (plus Fulham last season). By extreme I mean less than 20 points in either the first or second third. So in 20 years, only FOUR teams have had less than 20 points after the first fifteen matches and made the top 6! Aye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigblueowl Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Wow that's very....... Boring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inspector Lestrade Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Does this mean we are up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Good thread - will be keeping a close eye (unless we fall away then who gives a poo). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted October 8, 2018 Author Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Bigblueowl said: Wow that's very....... Boring. Apologies. Palmer int all that iz he? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prowl Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Very interesting analysis. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonofbert2 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: For the fourth season running here is my 15 match thread (which I always do after 10 matches - 2 late this season). We have now played 12 matches. Despite what people say about one team always coming from nowhere - this is absolute rubbish. It hardly ever happens! As a general rule if you are not within touching distance after 15 matches, you rarely make the top 6. Indeed, I will go on to show that unless you have at least 20 points after 15 matches you can practically forget it. IN ACTUAL FACT IF YOU GET BELOW 20 POINTS IN ANY THIRD OF THE SEASON IT MAKES LIFE VERY DIFFICULT FOR YOU! Table last season after 15 matches Wolves 32 Cardiff 31 pigs 30 Bristol City 27 Villa 26 Derby 25 Boro 23 Leeds 23 Norwich 22 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 7 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 16/17:- Newcastle 34 Brighton 31 Huddersfield 28 Norwich 27 Reading 25 Bristol C 24 Birmingham 24 Wednesday 24 Leeds 23 Brentford 22 Fulham 21 Barnsley 20 Preston 20 QPR 19 Villa 18 Ipswich 18 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 8 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 15/16:- Hull 31 Burnley 31 Brighton 31 Derby 30 Boro 30 Brum 25 Reading 24 Wednesday 24 Cardiff 22 Ipswich 21 Brentford 20 Fulham 20 Familiar look to the final table? The top 5 after 15 matches finished in the top 5. Wednesday finished 6th and were 8th after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches in 14/15 Watford 29 Bournemouth 27 Boro 27 Wolves 27 Derby 26 Norwich 26 Blackburn 25 Ipswich 24 Watford and Bournemouth went on to finish in the top 2. Norwich, Boro and Ipswich finished in the top 6. SO IN THE LAST FOUR SEASONS - 21 OF THE 24 TEAMS THAT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP SIX HAVE BEEN EIGHTH OR HIGHER AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES! ALL EIGHT TEAMS THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE TOP TWO AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES HAVE GONE ON TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX! SEVEN OF THE EIGHT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP TWO! This is the top 6 for last season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Wolves 99-32-36-31 Cardiff 90-31-24-35 Fulham 88-19-32-37 Villa 83-26-30-27 Boro 76-23-22-31 Derby 75-25-32-18 As you will see below, this is an unusual season. Fulham made the play offs despite getting less than 20 points in the first 15 matches. This rarely occurs! Also, Derby only got 18 points in their final 16 matches and still made it. This is the top 6 for the 16/17 season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Brighton 92- 31-30-31 Newcastle 91-34-31-26 Reading 85-25-31-26 Wednesday 81-24-28-29 Huddersfield 81-28-30-23 Fulham 80-21-25-34 So in 16/17 the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Fulham with 21 in the first third. and just for a chuckle you see where Leeds went wrong. Leeds 74-23-31-20 This is the top 6 for 2015-16 broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Burnley 93 - 31 - 24 - 38 Boro 89 - 30 - 28 - 31 Brighton 89 - 31 - 25 - 33 Hull 83 - 31 - 28 - 24 Derby 78 - 30 - 21 - 27 Wednesday 74 - 24 - 26 - 24 So in 15/16, the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Derby with 21 in the second third. Below is the top 6 for the season 2014-15 with the same breakdown:- Bournemouth 90-27-31-32 Watford 89-29-24-36 Norwich 86-26-24-36 Middlesbrough 85-27-32-26 Brentford 78-22-30-26 Ipswich 78-24-27-27 Again, there is only one team (Brentford) to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs. In 14/15 Derby suddenly fell away, showing that unless you have an exceptional 15 matches you really can't afford a mediocre 15 matches (77-26-31-20) Points needed to reach play offs followed by points total of the 6th team after the first 15 games: 2017/18 = 75 (Derby). First 15 games had 25 points 2016/17 = 80 (Fulham). First 15 games Fulham had 21 points 2015/16 = 74 (Wednesday). First 15 games Wednesday had 24 2014/15 = 78 (Ipswich). First 15 games Ipswich had 24. 2013/14 = 72 (Brighton). First 15 games Brighton had 21. 2012/13 = 68 (Leicester). First 15 games Leicester had 26. 2011/12 = 75 (Cardiff). First 15 games Cardiff had 24. 2010/11 = 75 (Notts Forest). First 15 games Notts Forest had 20. 6th spot average over 8 years = 74.6 6th spot teams after 15 games = 23.2 So in conclusion, it is highly unlikely that any team that has under 20 points after 15 matches will make the play offs. Ideally, you want at least 24 points. In the last four years, if you are going to make the top 2, you need at least 27 points. We currently have 19 points from 12 matches. Are we confident of getting to at least 24? Our next 3 matches to take us to 15 are:- H v Boro A v QPR A v Brum Extreme Examples:- Every season I have done this people have tried to come up with extreme examples. And there are a few but they are never as extreme as people remembered:- Palace under Dowie 73 points - 16-25-32 Sunderland under Keane 88 points - 19 - 27 -42 Reading 89-18-33-38 Blackpool 70-24-16-30 They are the only extreme examples I can find in 20 years (plus Fulham last season). By extreme I mean less than 20 points in either the first or second third. So in 20 years, only FOUR teams have had less than 20 points after the first fifteen matches and made the top 6! Worra abart if Westy were in goyl tho n if Jos sharted lowd lyk Wilder. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigblueowl Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Just now, HirstWhoScoredIt said: Apologies. Palmer int all that iz he? No worries I've got the attention span of a two year old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigblueowl Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 minute ago, sonofbert2 said: Worra abart if Westy were in goyl tho n if Jos sharted lowd lyk Wilder. Eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazowl55 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Great now we are going to lose our next 3 matches so we remain on 19 points after 15 games. Just bloody marvellous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Willow Owl Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Fkin hell Hirsty. Did you start to post that yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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