ChinaOwl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 10 hours ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: For the fourth season running here is my 15 match thread (which I always do after 10 matches - 2 late this season). We have now played 12 matches. Despite what people say about one team always coming from nowhere - this is absolute rubbish. It hardly ever happens! As a general rule if you are not within touching distance after 15 matches, you rarely make the top 6. Indeed, I will go on to show that unless you have at least 20 points after 15 matches you can practically forget it. IN ACTUAL FACT IF YOU GET BELOW 20 POINTS IN ANY THIRD OF THE SEASON IT MAKES LIFE VERY DIFFICULT FOR YOU! Table last season after 15 matches Wolves 32 Cardiff 31 pigs 30 Bristol City 27 Villa 26 Derby 25 Boro 23 Leeds 23 Norwich 22 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 7 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 16/17:- Newcastle 34 Brighton 31 Huddersfield 28 Norwich 27 Reading 25 Bristol C 24 Birmingham 24 Wednesday 24 Leeds 23 Brentford 22 Fulham 21 Barnsley 20 Preston 20 QPR 19 Villa 18 Ipswich 18 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 8 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 15/16:- Hull 31 Burnley 31 Brighton 31 Derby 30 Boro 30 Brum 25 Reading 24 Wednesday 24 Cardiff 22 Ipswich 21 Brentford 20 Fulham 20 Familiar look to the final table? The top 5 after 15 matches finished in the top 5. Wednesday finished 6th and were 8th after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches in 14/15 Watford 29 Bournemouth 27 Boro 27 Wolves 27 Derby 26 Norwich 26 Blackburn 25 Ipswich 24 Watford and Bournemouth went on to finish in the top 2. Norwich, Boro and Ipswich finished in the top 6. SO IN THE LAST FOUR SEASONS - 21 OF THE 24 TEAMS THAT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP SIX HAVE BEEN EIGHTH OR HIGHER AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES! ALL EIGHT TEAMS THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE TOP TWO AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES HAVE GONE ON TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX! SEVEN OF THE EIGHT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP TWO! This is the top 6 for last season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Wolves 99-32-36-31 Cardiff 90-31-24-35 Fulham 88-19-32-37 Villa 83-26-30-27 Boro 76-23-22-31 Derby 75-25-32-18 As you will see below, this is an unusual season. Fulham made the play offs despite getting less than 20 points in the first 15 matches. This rarely occurs! Also, Derby only got 18 points in their final 16 matches and still made it. This is the top 6 for the 16/17 season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Brighton 92- 31-30-31 Newcastle 91-34-31-26 Reading 85-25-31-26 Wednesday 81-24-28-29 Huddersfield 81-28-30-23 Fulham 80-21-25-34 So in 16/17 the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Fulham with 21 in the first third. and just for a chuckle you see where Leeds went wrong. Leeds 74-23-31-20 This is the top 6 for 2015-16 broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Burnley 93 - 31 - 24 - 38 Boro 89 - 30 - 28 - 31 Brighton 89 - 31 - 25 - 33 Hull 83 - 31 - 28 - 24 Derby 78 - 30 - 21 - 27 Wednesday 74 - 24 - 26 - 24 So in 15/16, the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Derby with 21 in the second third. Below is the top 6 for the season 2014-15 with the same breakdown:- Bournemouth 90-27-31-32 Watford 89-29-24-36 Norwich 86-26-24-36 Middlesbrough 85-27-32-26 Brentford 78-22-30-26 Ipswich 78-24-27-27 Again, there is only one team (Brentford) to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs. In 14/15 Derby suddenly fell away, showing that unless you have an exceptional 15 matches you really can't afford a mediocre 15 matches (77-26-31-20) Points needed to reach play offs followed by points total of the 6th team after the first 15 games: 2017/18 = 75 (Derby). First 15 games had 25 points 2016/17 = 80 (Fulham). First 15 games Fulham had 21 points 2015/16 = 74 (Wednesday). First 15 games Wednesday had 24 2014/15 = 78 (Ipswich). First 15 games Ipswich had 24. 2013/14 = 72 (Brighton). First 15 games Brighton had 21. 2012/13 = 68 (Leicester). First 15 games Leicester had 26. 2011/12 = 75 (Cardiff). First 15 games Cardiff had 24. 2010/11 = 75 (Notts Forest). First 15 games Notts Forest had 20. 6th spot average over 8 years = 74.6 6th spot teams after 15 games = 23.2 So in conclusion, it is highly unlikely that any team that has under 20 points after 15 matches will make the play offs. Ideally, you want at least 24 points. In the last four years, if you are going to make the top 2, you need at least 27 points. We currently have 19 points from 12 matches. Are we confident of getting to at least 24? Our next 3 matches to take us to 15 are:- H v Boro A v QPR A v Brum Extreme Examples:- Every season I have done this people have tried to come up with extreme examples. And there are a few but they are never as extreme as people remembered:- Palace under Dowie 73 points - 16-25-32 Sunderland under Keane 88 points - 19 - 27 -42 Reading 89-18-33-38 Blackpool 70-24-16-30 They are the only extreme examples I can find in 20 years (plus Fulham last season). By extreme I mean less than 20 points in either the first or second third. So in 20 years, only FOUR teams have had less than 20 points after the first fifteen matches and made the top 6! Why didn't Gary Madine think about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Almat Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 (edited) I'm not worried; since the Brentford match we are joint second on 18 points and only 1 point off top! We're going up. https://www.transfermarkt.com/championship/formtabelle/wettbewerb/GB2?saison_id=2018&min=4&max=13 Edited October 9, 2018 by Almat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiamAP22D Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 10 hours ago, CalmJimmers said: Basically, get 5 points from our next 3 games and is chuffing coming home m8 Let's just win the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxonOwl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Win, win , win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OWLERTON GHOST Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 hour ago, HIGHERSTATE said: Is that Karl Pilkington with a perm n White jumper ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIGHERSTATE Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Just now, OWLERTON GHOST said: Is that Karl Pilkington with a perm n White jumper ? Probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torryowl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 2 hours ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: In 2006/07, Sunderland under Keane had 19 points and the 6th team had 25 points. So they made up 6 points. Fulham last season had 19 points and Derby had 25 in 6th. So they also managed to get in the play offs after being 6 points adrift after 15 matches. Palace under Dowie (03/04) are the only rxsmple I can find. They had 16 points after 15 matches. 6th place had 27 points which is very high. Palace made up 11 points! statistically that is an amazing season because after 15 matches 6th place had 27 points which is the highest in the past 20 years. Yet Palace ended up making the top 6 with a relatively low total of 73 points. I understand what your saying but if Fulham can make up 9pts with 26 games left then you'd think 7 from 31 games dosnt put you out the picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Almat Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, torryowl said: I understand what your saying but if Fulham can make up 9pts with 26 games left then you'd think 7 from 31 games dosnt put you out the picture What he's stating is a happening like that is statistically massively rare (In Fulham's case it's actually unique). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxonOwl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, torryowl said: I understand what your saying but if Fulham can make up 9pts with 26 games left then you'd think 7 from 31 games dosnt put you out the picture It doesn't put you out of the picture. It is just very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 (edited) 21 minutes ago, torryowl said: I understand what your saying but if Fulham can make up 9pts with 26 games left then you'd think 7 from 31 games dosnt put you out the picture No I agree it doesn’t. in 20 years one team has managed it. Edited October 9, 2018 by HirstWhoScoredIt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helmut_rooster Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 10 hours ago, hawksmore said: People like you are proper weirdos. Being disagreed with then going through a number of posters other posts, in non-related threads negging is very worrying behaviour. Statistically, it is highly likely that such a person is unhappy with life. You negged me, I negged you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torryowl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: No I agree it doesn’t. in 20 years one team has managed it. well if we do lose the next 3 lets hope we can buck the trend and pull it off …… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawksmore Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 6 hours ago, helmut_rooster said: You negged me, I negged you. You weirdo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger208b Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 19 hours ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: For the fourth season running here is my 15 match thread (which I always do after 10 matches - 2 late this season). We have now played 12 matches. Despite what people say about one team always coming from nowhere - this is absolute rubbish. It hardly ever happens! As a general rule if you are not within touching distance after 15 matches, you rarely make the top 6. Indeed, I will go on to show that unless you have at least 20 points after 15 matches you can practically forget it. IN ACTUAL FACT IF YOU GET BELOW 20 POINTS IN ANY THIRD OF THE SEASON IT MAKES LIFE VERY DIFFICULT FOR YOU! Table last season after 15 matches Wolves 32 Cardiff 31 pigs 30 Bristol City 27 Villa 26 Derby 25 Boro 23 Leeds 23 Norwich 22 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 7 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 16/17:- Newcastle 34 Brighton 31 Huddersfield 28 Norwich 27 Reading 25 Bristol C 24 Birmingham 24 Wednesday 24 Leeds 23 Brentford 22 Fulham 21 Barnsley 20 Preston 20 QPR 19 Villa 18 Ipswich 18 Familiar look to the final table? 5 of the eventual top 6 were in the top 8 after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 15/16:- Hull 31 Burnley 31 Brighton 31 Derby 30 Boro 30 Brum 25 Reading 24 Wednesday 24 Cardiff 22 Ipswich 21 Brentford 20 Fulham 20 Familiar look to the final table? The top 5 after 15 matches finished in the top 5. Wednesday finished 6th and were 8th after 15 matches. The league table after 15 matches in 14/15 Watford 29 Bournemouth 27 Boro 27 Wolves 27 Derby 26 Norwich 26 Blackburn 25 Ipswich 24 Watford and Bournemouth went on to finish in the top 2. Norwich, Boro and Ipswich finished in the top 6. SO IN THE LAST FOUR SEASONS - 21 OF THE 24 TEAMS THAT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP SIX HAVE BEEN EIGHTH OR HIGHER AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES! ALL EIGHT TEAMS THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE TOP TWO AFTER FIFTEEN MATCHES HAVE GONE ON TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX! SEVEN OF THE EIGHT HAVE FINISHED IN THE TOP TWO! This is the top 6 for last season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Wolves 99-32-36-31 Cardiff 90-31-24-35 Fulham 88-19-32-37 Villa 83-26-30-27 Boro 76-23-22-31 Derby 75-25-32-18 As you will see below, this is an unusual season. Fulham made the play offs despite getting less than 20 points in the first 15 matches. This rarely occurs! Also, Derby only got 18 points in their final 16 matches and still made it. This is the top 6 for the 16/17 season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Brighton 92- 31-30-31 Newcastle 91-34-31-26 Reading 85-25-31-26 Wednesday 81-24-28-29 Huddersfield 81-28-30-23 Fulham 80-21-25-34 So in 16/17 the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Fulham with 21 in the first third. and just for a chuckle you see where Leeds went wrong. Leeds 74-23-31-20 This is the top 6 for 2015-16 broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches Burnley 93 - 31 - 24 - 38 Boro 89 - 30 - 28 - 31 Brighton 89 - 31 - 25 - 33 Hull 83 - 31 - 28 - 24 Derby 78 - 30 - 21 - 27 Wednesday 74 - 24 - 26 - 24 So in 15/16, the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Derby with 21 in the second third. Below is the top 6 for the season 2014-15 with the same breakdown:- Bournemouth 90-27-31-32 Watford 89-29-24-36 Norwich 86-26-24-36 Middlesbrough 85-27-32-26 Brentford 78-22-30-26 Ipswich 78-24-27-27 Again, there is only one team (Brentford) to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs. In 14/15 Derby suddenly fell away, showing that unless you have an exceptional 15 matches you really can't afford a mediocre 15 matches (77-26-31-20) Points needed to reach play offs followed by points total of the 6th team after the first 15 games: 2017/18 = 75 (Derby). First 15 games had 25 points 2016/17 = 80 (Fulham). First 15 games Fulham had 21 points 2015/16 = 74 (Wednesday). First 15 games Wednesday had 24 2014/15 = 78 (Ipswich). First 15 games Ipswich had 24. 2013/14 = 72 (Brighton). First 15 games Brighton had 21. 2012/13 = 68 (Leicester). First 15 games Leicester had 26. 2011/12 = 75 (Cardiff). First 15 games Cardiff had 24. 2010/11 = 75 (Notts Forest). First 15 games Notts Forest had 20. 6th spot average over 8 years = 74.6 6th spot teams after 15 games = 23.2 So in conclusion, it is highly unlikely that any team that has under 20 points after 15 matches will make the play offs. Ideally, you want at least 24 points. In the last four years, if you are going to make the top 2, you need at least 27 points. We currently have 19 points from 12 matches. Are we confident of getting to at least 24? Our next 3 matches to take us to 15 are:- H v Boro A v QPR A v Brum Extreme Examples:- Every season I have done this people have tried to come up with extreme examples. And there are a few but they are never as extreme as people remembered:- Palace under Dowie 73 points - 16-25-32 Sunderland under Keane 88 points - 19 - 27 -42 Reading 89-18-33-38 Blackpool 70-24-16-30 They are the only extreme examples I can find in 20 years (plus Fulham last season). By extreme I mean less than 20 points in either the first or second third. So in 20 years, only FOUR teams have had less than 20 points after the first fifteen matches and made the top 6! So are we getting promoted or not?.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, slinger208b said: So are we getting promoted or not?.. I’ll tell you in three matches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quist Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 well done a really good piece of work and enjoyed reading it. If we get 5 pts or more from next 3 games we are in serious business. The other point worth noting is I think this year will be one of those where quite a low points total will make play offs as no team has really got away from others at this stage and lots on similar points. Tony Pulis was interviewed on Sky and he said 16 matches was an indicator of how you would go in season. He was being interviewed when Middlesnoro were top I thought just saying that as 10 game mark had been reached and just trying to deflect question. Think this proves there is something in what he was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger208b Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 31 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: I’ll tell you in three matches Ta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GY-owl.4 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 hour ago, sw1867 said: I’ve re-read the OP and don’t think this is in their but apologies if I’ve missed it. How many teams who achieved 24 points in the first 15 games have then failed to make the playoffs? just look at who has 24 or more points after 15 games in the tables provided! the answer is quite alot of them. Brizzle city had 27 pts last year and 24 the year before, on both occasions they didnt make the play-offs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GY-owl.4 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 pigs had 30pts after 15 games last year and didnt make the play-offs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxonOwl Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I think if you make the target in one or two thirds it is very easy to miss the target in one third and not end up in the playoffs. On the other hand, if you fall behind the target in any on third it is pretty difficult to make up the shortfall in the other thirds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now