The Graph Thread 2017/18 - This season compared to previous two seasons

[Davetherave]

So referring to the graphs .. ( which are brilliant BTW) ...

 

If we are CC3 now, then we are 6 behind CC1 and 10 behind CC2 at the same

stage, having played 11, in the last 3 seasons.

 

Do I have that about right?

 

What is so revealing and frustrating this time 

is that after game 11, all CCs were within 1 point of

each other,  CC2 on target for play offs and the other 

two 1 point away.

 

So it really is the last 11 games where we have drifted away big time.

 

The few crumbs of consolation and perhaps the last vestiges of

optimism left is that we are still in the first half of the season ( just) and 

all those buggers taking money out of club at S6 owe us and DC big time,

and maybe they are just realising that ... Hull was poor not dire,

and therefore some improvement.

Surely with all that supposed talent, their guilty consciences and our backing we can 

scrape into the play offs for the third time ... ‘ cause scrape is what 

we have done twice before.

Oh well just a few thoughts .. probably miles off as usual.

 

Merry Xmas Owlstalk

 

 

[Hack-Abusi]

39 minutes ago, N0rtherner said:

It's funny how everyone thinks 10 pts to play offs is impossible but 10 pts to relegation is sure to happen xD

You not seen how we've been playing lately?

 

Can't buy a shot on goal let alone buy a win .. we look abject at times .. relegation fodder ...

 

We need a sharp incline and in the right direction as this season is heading in to mid table mediocrity ...

[ChinaOwl]

31 minutes ago, OxonOwl said:

The thing that a lot of people don't consider is the number of teams you would have to pass rather than just the number of points. If we were 7th then 10 points would be easier to make up to get into 6th than making up 10 points AND passing 10-11 other teams.

 

Indeed!

 

A more accurate method is to make a realistic guess at would be the minimum number of points needed for sixth place e.g. 74-75 points then find the average number of points per game (even if you out with the guess by a few, the average per game wouldn't be that much different).

 

As things stand now, we would require something in excess of 1.9 points per game (nigh on automatic promotion form).

 

Whilst it is still a technical possibility, what chances are there when so many key players are injured and even if they come back around January, would still need at least a month to regain match fitness and form. To achieve what we will need would require the team to be playing consistently at full potential and, given the circumstances, I cannot really see it happening.

[kristmace]

16 minutes ago, ChinaOwl said:

 

Indeed!

 

A more accurate method is to make a realistic guess at would be the minimum number of points needed for sixth place e.g. 74-75 points then find the average number of points per game (even if you out with the guess by a few, the average per game wouldn't be that much different).

 

As things stand now, we would require something in excess of 1.9 points per game (nigh on automatic promotion form).

 

Whilst it is still a technical possibility, what chances are there when so many key players are injured and even if they come back around January, would still need at least a month to regain match fitness and form. To achieve what we will need would require the team to be playing consistently at full potential and, given the circumstances, I cannot really see it happening.

 

I said exactly this in another thread. If we want to even scrape the playoffs, we need to be in the kind of form Wolves have been in since the start of the season with no slip ups. Just not going to happen. 

[N0rtherner]

23 minutes ago, Hack-Abusi said:

You not seen how we've been playing lately?

 

Can't buy a shot on goal let alone buy a win .. we look abject at times .. relegation fodder ...

 

We need a sharp incline and in the right direction as this season is heading in to mid table mediocrity ...

 

Regrettedly I have indeed seen all those matches, grueling at times... but our position comes from an average of performances putting us 15th... so going forward I'd expect us to get both good games and bad games. We're not going 24 games with only draws and losses; Chansiri will be looking to protect his business over Carlos before that happens, while right now... I don't know, maybe he's working in the background to secure the next name before letting Carlos go.

There's a bunch of teams between us and 6th, a bit fewer but still quite a lot between us and 22nd - and some of those teams are horrible compared to what we are actually doing - so for us to drop into relegation zone should be as unlikely as us making it into play offs. Turn up like we did v Wolves and we'll get wins going forward, but we need more attacking flair because we won't win games if we don't shoot. Point aside; 

[Hack-Abusi]

38 minutes ago, N0rtherner said:

 

Regrettedly I have indeed seen all those matches, grueling at times... but our position comes from an average of performances putting us 15th... so going forward I'd expect us to get both good games and bad games. We're not going 24 games with only draws and losses; Chansiri will be looking to protect his business over Carlos before that happens, while right now... I don't know, maybe he's working in the background to secure the next name before letting Carlos go.

There's a bunch of teams between us and 6th, a bit fewer but still quite a lot between us and 22nd - and some of those teams are horrible compared to what we are actually doing - so for us to drop into relegation zone should be as unlikely as us making it into play offs. Turn up like we did v Wolves and we'll get wins going forward, but we need more attacking flair because we won't win games if we don't shoot. Point aside; 

I'd like to think we wouldn't go 24 games without a win .. but with how we've performed lately .. I just can't see a win.

 

Games when you've pounded the opposition but lost, you think in the back of your mind "ffs how did we not win that! play like that again and we'll batter someone" .. but because of how we are setting up its so negative, so backwards, so turgid .. its like the only way we'll win is an opposition error!

 

[Quist]

Real worry is we are not creating chances and therefore unlikely to score many goals. Wehave adefence which regularly concedes goals so in all not very good. Although it couldbe arguedinfirst 11 games we were not far off what we had done previously it was clear to those that watched that team were not playing well and we were going to struggle. At momentwe willstruggletoget 1 point per game.

[Luke]

3 hours ago, HarrowbyOwl said:

Six straight wins would get us back on track - just. We had a great run like that in April last year.

But we've won 6 out of 22 so far

 

 

[Ian_D]

2 hours ago, kristmace said:

 

I said exactly this in another thread. If we want to even scrape the playoffs, we need to be in the kind of form Wolves have been in since the start of the season with no slip ups. Just not going to happen. 

but coca says we will achieve promotion

[Quist]

Real worry is we are not creating chances and therefore unlikely to score many goals. Wehave adefence which regularly concedes goals so in all not very good. Although it couldbe arguedinfirst 11 games we were not far off what we had done previously it was clear to those that watched that team were not playing well and we were going to struggle. At momentwe willstruggletoget 1 point per game.

[snaykz]

6 hours ago, OxonOwl said:

The thing that a lot of people don't consider is the number of teams you would have to pass rather than just the number of points. If we were 7th then 10 points would be easier to make up to get into 6th than making up 10 points AND passing 10-11 other teams.

 

Exactly.

 

It's not as if all the teams between us and the playoffs are going to suddenly start losing match after match.

 

We're currently 10 points away. If we win our next game, we might not even close the gap. Draws are likely to see us losing even more ground, as we've found out over the last few weeks.

 

Realistically, we need 5 or 6 consecutive wins just to get anywhere near contention, and that would probably only lift us to 9th or 10th.

 

[RyanSWFC]

At the halfway stage of the season.

 

[Doghouse Daz]

 

Ryan !!!! 

[RyanSWFC]

Update after Forest.

 

[prowl]

Another 8 straight wins after today should get us back onto the same points we had at that stage in 15/16. 10 wins gets us onto the same position in 16/17.

 

Tall order.

 

6th place is on target for 79 points if the keep up their form so far this season (they will crack). To reach 79 points we need to average 2.23 points per game.

 

Very tall order.

 

We won't do it. This year is about rebuilding for next year.

 

I don't think there is much risk of us getting dragged into a relegation battle. 

[Doghouse Daz]

Brentford, Burton and Blunts, all with the dreaded B, well I'm confident. 

 

GAME ON

 

Lets close that gap. 

[i used to be sc_owl]

24 minutes ago, prowl said:

Another 8 straight wins after today should get us back onto the same points we had at that stage in 15/16. 10 wins gets us onto the same position in 16/17.

 

Tall order.

 

6th place is on target for 79 points if the keep up their form so far this season (they will crack). To reach 79 points we need to average 2.23 points per game.

 

Very tall order.

 

We won't do it. This year is about rebuilding for next year.

 

I don't think there is much risk of us getting dragged into a relegation battle. 

 

It is still possible, albiet unlikely. 

 

With the right manager I think we will do it, personally. 

[sherlyegg]

Win 2, lose 1 would give us a 2pt per game average, may not be enough but could make the last 6 games interesting, or a nightmare returning for one team

[osowl]

1 hour ago, prowl said:

Another 8 straight wins after today should get us back onto the same points we had at that stage in 15/16. 10 wins gets us onto the same position in 16/17.

 

Tall order.

 

6th place is on target for 79 points if the keep up their form so far this season (they will crack). To reach 79 points we need to average 2.23 points per game.

 

Very tall order.

 

We won't do it. This year is about rebuilding for next year.

 

I don't think there is much risk of us getting dragged into a relegation battle. 

Be more realistic.

 

Another 5 on the bounce would be doable and then we'd be only a couple of points away with 51 points to play for.

 

 

[Doghouse Daz]

 

Ryan !!!!