Automatic promotion - the "facts"

[Spookone]

26th of May it is then

[g-owls]

If United win 10 of their last 15 and lose the other 5 they'd still end up with 92 points.

It's a big big ask for us.

Edited February 29, 2012 by g-owls

[Vaughan]

92 points will get us promoted - Unless SUFC get more... and they are already 2 towards that target with more games to acquire them...

So its totally out of our hands. All we can do is win the 'next match' and see what happens in a couple of months time... No point in over analysing the fixture list and guessing what may be.

[tomhollywood]

It's a big big ask for us.

Defo.

Playoffs is more than likely and I would have accepted that at the start of the season.

[OxonOwl]

Its at Manure not Wembley

May

5/6th Season Finish - npower League 1 & npower League 2

3rd - 18th Play-Off semi-finals (provisional dates)

19th npower Championship Play-Off final - Wembley

26th npower League 1 Play-Off final - Wembley

27th npower League 2 Play-Off final - Wembley

From http://www.football-...k/page/KeyDates

Edited February 29, 2012 by OxonOwl

[Box_Man]

Just did the predictor thingy

Charlton 107 pts

Pigs 92pts

MK Dons 90 pts

Huddersfield 89 pts

OWLS 89 pts

Stevenage 80 pts

As we've said from the very start, any team that manages to average 2 pts per game are heading for automatic thats the way it has always been and will no doubt continue

I cannot see us getting 92 pts this season....I know we are a different team this year compared to last season but we've still got to go away to Rochdale, Orient, Huddersfield, Brentford all games we lost last year

[owls maniac]

United basically need 9 to 10 wins from their final 15 games to get automatic. With 7 games left at home I would expect them to win at least 5 of those, so it really does depend on how they do away. They still have to go to colchester, MK, Notts county and Brentford so not easy but we also have some tricky away fixtures left.

I dont want to be too pessimistic but I think our recent slump really has left us with a mountain to climb, and barring the wheels well and truly falling off I think United will nick it. Sorry.

[steelowl]

Here are the facts.

To go up automatically, you have to finish in the top 2. Each year, the top 2 teams score a different number of points, this is down to each match being different with a largely unpredictable outcome based on a MASSIVE number of variables, including, to name just a few, mental and physical fitness, the weather, refereeing decisions and luck. Each game results in 0, 1 or 3 points. Over a season consisting of 46 games, this can result in almost any points total up to a maximum of 138 points.

To finish in the top 2, you have to outperform at least 22 of the other 23 teams over the 46 games, and here's the important part - the total number of points you score is not the deciding factor, it is the number of points in relation to the other teams in the division.

Or to be put it quickly, lets just see what points are needed at the end of the season, who knows what will happen.

not sure why this was negged - it's basic facts anything can yet happen unlikely as it seems now

[fatzooma]

I like the idea of Stevenage not getting into the top 6.

[owls maniac]

I like the idea of Stevenage not getting into the top 6.

Me too. Although in my opinion we will meet MK Dons in the play off semi's. Would prefer then to meet Notts County in the final than Stevenage.

[bigrbuk]

not sure why this was negged - it's basic facts anything can yet happen unlikely as it seems now

one of them will have come from oh_weds_we_love_you - he negs everything I post :)

[TheEnchanter]

I think this is how it will finish..

Charlton

Blunts

Huddersfield

Sheff wed

Mk Dons

Stevenage

Hudders v Stevenage

Sheff Wed v Mk Dons

Stevenage v Sheff Wed

Sheff Wed Promotion!!!!!!

Please God!

[Sonny]

We'll go up this season. No doubt.

[shez owl]

Daft as it sounds we are well capable of winning every game we have left bar the hudds away game which I would take a point from now if it was offered. It won't happen but they are capable!

Having said that hudds and blunts are too :(

We can take One game at a time now, no pressure on automatic, whereas down s2 they wil be studying every game up to may and be worried about what others are doing, they say they won't but they will! Its natural, That's when the pressure will build, they bottled it last season with the same (ish) team!

[cross owl]

I think its still wide open with the pigs in the better position at the moment . anyone can have a really good run or a really bad one so until its finished second place is still anybodies and until its no longer possible I will still believe :-)

[OxonOwl]

Never give up hope until it is mathematically impossible.

[Dronfield_SWFC]

The pigs have two games in hand on us but we have both played the same number of home games; therefore both games in hand are away from home where anything can happen ie 1 draw 1 loss would but us right back into contention.

So theoretically tonights game is not one of their games in hand

[Guest GreenGoose]

I think its still wide open with the pigs in the better position at the moment . anyone can have a really good run or a really bad one so until its finished second place is still anybodies and until its no longer possible I will still believe :-)

Not as wide open as Charlie Webster's fanny.

[Salmonbones]

There is another option.

It looks like Portsmouth will start next season as a brand new entity, after being wound up.

They are hoping to start again from League 2, but more then likely non league.

That will create a void of 1 club in the divisions below, so 1 extra promotion to the Championship, and extra promotion to L1 etc. to fill the void.

I'm NOT wanting that, i'm just saying it's likely to happen. I would never want to get promoted by the fact another club has gone to the wall.

This will happen unless someone can come up with proof of funds to the tune of about 100million pdq.

Edited February 29, 2012 by salmonbones

[tomhollywood]

Link?? ^^^^^^^^