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Automatic promotion - the "facts"


Guest ollyt

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There is another option.

It looks like Portsmouth will start next season as a brand new entity, after being wound up.

They are hoping to start again from League 2, but more then likely non league.

That will create a void of 1 club in the divisions below, so 1 extra promotion to the Championship, and extra promotion to L1 etc. to fill the void.

I'm NOT wanting that, i'm just saying it's likely to happen. I would never want to get promoted by the fact another club has gone to the wall.

This will happen unless someone can come up with proof of funds to the tune of about 100million pdq.

Won't they just relegate fewer teams from each division?

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Common thinking is a team needs to average 2 points per game to go up automatically. That is likely to apply more so this year with places 2 to 5 in particular being very close. So the key is 92 points.

We have 60 points with 13 games left - therefore can acheive a maximum of 99 points. So, we must take 32 points out of what is on offer so;

10 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat - 32

10 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats - 31

9 wins, 4 draws, no defeats - 31

The point is whilst we all hope for automatic to acheive it means a run like we've not seen in years OR a major wee wee tail up by i suspect at least 2 other teams.

Those are the facts. I would love automatic but suspect we have to accept the play-offs, which i would have taken at the start of the season

90 would be my guess, whether thats enough I don't know.

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Our current points/games ratio puts us to finish on 83 points. It will take a big increase in form to get us to 90. Something similar to what WBA did under Megson to catch Wolves wouldnt go a miss.

Only a couple more wins, we easily lost points to Hudders, Walsall and Hartlepool. Lets hope we can easily gain them.

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2nd place is United's to throw away. Anything less than 4 points from the home games this week against Scunny and Oldham, then they may start to get nervous particularly with some tricky away trips coming up?

Huddersfield draw too many games. Last night at Stevenage was a classic example. Only 3 defeats all season and they are not comgfortable in the top 2, I can understand why Clark was given the push.

I can't stand Karl Robinson. His constant whingeing of us in particularly has p***ed me off as I'm sure it has many other Owls Fans but you can't deny he's done a very good job with arguably the smallest squad and budget of the top 5. I've expected them to drop off the pace but they haven't and in Dean Bowditch Robinson's probably made one of the shrewdest signings of the season at this level. Dark horses for the top 2 IMO.

Stevenage won't get top 2 but for me it's between them and Carlisle for the last play-off place and if Stevenage get it no one will want to face them.

As for us, If someone had offered me a play-off place at the start of the season I would've taken it. I thought we'd finish 8th-12th at the start and for us to be say 5 wins or so away from clinching a play-off spot with 13 games to go then fair play to Megson and the lads. That said I just wonder with all this speculation regarding Megson's future whether or not we might yet have another twist in the automatic promotion race and it might just be a twist we enjoy? :biggrin:

Of course there is still a fair way to go :rolleyes:

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Guest kylejswfc

Just did the predictor thingy

Charlton 107 pts

Pigs 92pts

MK Dons 90 pts

Huddersfield 89 pts

OWLS 89 pts

Stevenage 80 pts

As we've said from the very start, any team that manages to average 2 pts per game are heading for automatic thats the way it has always been and will no doubt continue

I cannot see us getting 92 pts this season....I know we are a different team this year compared to last season but we've still got to go away to Rochdale, Orient, Huddersfield, Brentford all games we lost last year

How honest are you being with your predictions?

All I'm saying is that if you are trying to be as honest as possible, we're only a decent weekend off pinching it!

In my opinion, everybody needs to stop settling for the play offs, keep the phucking faith and bare down on that 2nd spot like there's no tomorrow!

When it gets to the 6th May, if we have finished 3rd, or 4th, or wherever, we should be a little disappointed, rally the troops, and blow the phuckers over the finish line.

A play off place is a good season, yeah, but we're there at the minute so why not keep believing.

Remember we were sat in second only a few weeks ago, didn't take long for us to throw it away!!

Sheffield United are bang in form at the minute, can they keep that up until the end of the season? You tell me.

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There is another option.

It looks like Portsmouth will start next season as a brand new entity, after being wound up.

They are hoping to start again from League 2, but more then likely non league.

That will create a void of 1 club in the divisions below, so 1 extra promotion to the Championship, and extra promotion to L1 etc. to fill the void.

I'm NOT wanting that, i'm just saying it's likely to happen. I would never want to get promoted by the fact another club has gone to the wall.

This will happen unless someone can come up with proof of funds to the tune of about 100million pdq.

How sure are you that would be the scenario if Pompey went titsup? Not disputing it just as a score out of 10 how likely is it that they promote one more, rather than relegate one less? What are the precedents if there are any?

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Common thinking is a team needs to average 2 points per game to go up automatically. That is likely to apply more so this year with places 2 to 5 in particular being very close. So the key is 92 points.

We have 60 points with 13 games left - therefore can acheive a maximum of 99 points. So, we must take 32 points out of what is on offer so;

10 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat - 32

10 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats - 31

9 wins, 4 draws, no defeats - 31

The point is whilst we all hope for automatic to acheive it means a run like we've not seen in years OR a major wee wee tail up by i suspect at least 2 other teams.

Those are the facts. I would love automatic but suspect we have to accept the play-offs, which i would have taken at the start of the season

Put it that way, the playoffs are the most likely outcome, if we manage to use this bit of a buzz after Sunday and carry on collecting points. Suspect that we will revert back to putting less effort in than seen there before long. Question is, how much do the players want it - on the balance of what we have seen all season, possibly not as much as they should.

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I don't think automatic is a definate no. We need to go on a run and hope that other slip up, but looking at the fixture list it's easy to see United dropping a fair few points from now and the end of the season. They've got: Walsall, Brentford, Colchester, Notts County, Hartlepool, Rochdale, MK Dons and Exeter as there remaining away games. I can see them going on a bad run soon.

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I don't think automatic is a definate no. We need to go on a run and hope that other slip up, but looking at the fixture list it's easy to see United dropping a fair few points from now and the end of the season. They've got: Walsall, Brentford, Colchester, Notts County, Hartlepool, Rochdale, MK Dons and Exeter as there remaining away games. I can see them going on a bad run soon.

Difficult away games, those.

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I don't think automatic is a definate no. We need to go on a run and hope that other slip up, but looking at the fixture list it's easy to see United dropping a fair few points from now and the end of the season. They've got: Walsall, Brentford, Colchester, Notts County, Hartlepool, Rochdale, MK Dons and Exeter as there remaining away games. I can see them going on a bad run soon.

I'll bet if we were in their position we'd be looking nervously over our shoulders and thinking it's just so far from over.

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