Taximark Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I can see why people might think that several teams might break through 90 points, but I'm still not sure myself - and history would definitely say they won't. Huddersfield have 18 games left to get 36 points but 5 of their 18 games are against top 6 teams. If they achieve a similar return in those 5 games, it will leave them needing 28 points from 13 games - so more than 2 points a game. United have 19 games to get 37 points, with 4 of their 19 games against top 6 teams. Again, if they achieve a similar return in thise 4 games, it will leave them needing 34 points from 15 games - so potentially a harder task than Huddersfield to get to 90 points. MK have 19 games to get 42 points and doing the same math as above, they will need to get 39 points from 16 games - tougher still. Stevenage have 19 games to get 45 points - doing the same math they will need to get 37 points from 15 games - just as tough. So, coming to us, we have 18 games to get 36 points - getting a similar return from the 3 games against the top 6 will leave us needing 33 points from 15 games - just better off than United but slightly worse than Huddersfield. In reality, no-one knows what will happen - all you can do is adopt a statistical approach - if you do, then you can see it is a tough ask for any one of the 5 teams above to get past 90 points - so to get more than one doing it to get in 2nd place - whilst possible, is not supported statistically. We just have to worry about us getting to 90 - if we do then we give ourselves a great chance of automatic. It's making me feel nervous this, when you see how many games we have left it doesn't seem much, lets just take it one game at a time to calm my nerves . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plonk Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Even being a bit pessimistic I see 45 points!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWednesdayBoys Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yeovil H 3 Exeter A 0 Stevenage H 3 Chesterfield A 3 Sheffield Utd H 3 Rochdale A 1 Bury H 3 Bournemouth H 0 Notts County A 1 Walsall H 3 Leyton Orient A 0 Preston H 3 Huddersfield A 1 Oldham H 3 Colchester A 1 Carlisle H 3 Brentford A 0 Wycombe H 3 I get 34 points... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daveyboy66 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 If we get 90 points we've had a great season...regardless of where we finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt68owls Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 strange that not 1 person has predicted a victory at huddersfield, are they really that much better than us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taximark Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 strange that not 1 person has predicted a victory at huddersfield, are they really that much better than us? Think they are poor at home, and they have to rely on JR if he takes a knock god help them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shireowl Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 some strange ones there mate... 0 points at home to carlisle? :S Not sure mk dons will be challenging at the end of the season as i don't think they have depth in the squad , carlisle have lost 2 games in 10 and will give anyone in this league a game, they have beat us and the pigs and drawn recently at hudds so not a easy team to play also they have this man playing at the back for them.............. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/16833396#asset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grez_owls4ever Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 My prediction is whoever finishes in 2nd place will need to break the 95pt barrier to do it. Completly agree with this, unheard of before but also, just shows how weak this league is. I personally think we will get nothing at either Exeter/Orient but not sure which, the other will be a point. March will be the key month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladeshater Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Completly agree with this, unheard of before but also, just shows how weak this league is. I personally think we will get nothing at either Exeter/Orient but not sure which, the other will be a point. March will be the key month. Every game every week every month will be key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mark77 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 There's no way 2nd place will need 95 points, id love to see a table showing that from the last 25 years since 3pts for a win came in because i doubt you will find many examples if any..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
since59owe Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 (edited) I do and I'm usually pessimistic about us (the Wednesday way ). 36 points from 18 games: 12 wins or more, or 11 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses or 10 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses or 9 wins, 9 draws, 0 losses Yeovil H 3pts Exeter A 1pt Stevenage H 3pts Chesterfield A 1pt Sheffield Utd H 1pt Rochdale A 3pts Bury H 3pts Bournemouth H 3pts Notts County A 3pts Walsall H 3pts Leyton Orient A 1pt Preston H 3pts Huddersfield A 0pts Oldham H 3pts Colchester A 0pts Carlisle H 1pt Brentford A 1pt Wycombe H 3pts I get 36pts. Edited February 1, 2012 by since59owe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr owl Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yeovil H - 3 Exeter A - 1 Stevenage H - 3 Chesterfield A - 3 Sheffield Utd H - 1 Rochdale A - 3 Bury H - 3 Bournemouth H - 1 Notts County A - 3 Walsall H - 3 Leyton Orient A - 3 Preston H - 1 Huddersfield A - 0 Oldham H - 1 Colchester A - 1 Carlisle H - 3 Brentford A - 1 Wycombe H - 3 37 Points there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daz Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 There's no way 2nd place will need 95 points, id love to see a table showing that from the last 25 years since 3pts for a win came in because i doubt you will find many examples if any..... 3 points for a win came in for the 81/82 season. Since that time the top 3 teams have earned the following points: 81/82 80/80/78 82/83 91/86/82 83/84 95/87/83 84/85 94/90/87 85/86 94/87/84 86/87 97/94/87 87/88 93/84/82 88/89 92/84/84 89/90 93/91/87 90/91 86/85/83 91/92 82/81/78 92/93 93/90/89 93/94 89/88/85 94/95 89/85/83 95/96 92/83/82 96/97 84/82/78 97/98 88/85/72 98/99 101/87/82 99/00 95/88/85 00/01 93/91/86 01/02 90/84/83 02/03 100/86/83 03/04 90/83/82 04/05 98/86/79 05/06 82/79/76 06/07 91/85/83 07/08 92/82/80 08/09 96/89/87 09/10 95/86/85 10/11 95/92/87 The highest number of points achieved by the 3rd placed team in 30 seasons has been 89, in 92/93. The average number of points required to finish a clear point ahead of the 3rd placed team in 30 seasons is 84 points. Only on 6 occasions out of 30, has the 2nd placed team got 90 points or more. So history would point to 90 points being enough for automatic, and I still believe this will be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowershiregreenowl Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Done my best to take my blue and white specs off and i make 37pts Yeovil H 3pts Exeter A 3pts Stevenage H 1pt Chesterfield A 3pts Sheffield Utd H 1pts Rochdale A 3pts Bury H 1pt Bournemouth H 0pt Notts County A 3pts Walsall H 3pt Leyton Orient A 3pts Preston H 3pt Huddersfield A 0pt Oldham H 3pts Colchester A 3pts Carlisle H 0pt Brentford A 1pt Wycombe H 3pts 0 points v bournmouth at home? think i will put that one as a draw or home win to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owler66 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 3 points for a win came in for the 81/82 season. Since that time the top 3 teams have earned the following points: 81/82 80/80/78 82/83 91/86/82 83/84 95/87/83 84/85 94/90/87 85/86 94/87/84 86/87 97/94/87 87/88 93/84/82 88/89 92/84/84 89/90 93/91/87 90/91 86/85/83 91/92 82/81/78 92/93 93/90/89 93/94 89/88/85 94/95 89/85/83 95/96 92/83/82 96/97 84/82/78 97/98 88/85/72 98/99 101/87/82 99/00 95/88/85 00/01 93/91/86 01/02 90/84/83 02/03 100/86/83 03/04 90/83/82 04/05 98/86/79 05/06 82/79/76 06/07 91/85/83 07/08 92/82/80 08/09 96/89/87 09/10 95/86/85 10/11 95/92/87 The highest number of points achieved by the 3rd placed team in 30 seasons has been 89, in 92/93. The average number of points required to finish a clear point ahead of the 3rd placed team in 30 seasons is 84 points. Only on 6 occasions out of 30, has the 2nd placed team got 90 points or more. So history would point to 90 points being enough for automatic, and I still believe this will be enough. 05/06 82pts enough for champions,pity thats not this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owls4effa Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hate to say it but i only get 33 pts too.Squeeky bum time. Anyone got a link for bbc league 1 predictor. Cant seem to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owls maniac Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Whatever way you see it it's going to be one hell of am end to the season. Considering how last season finished I think it epitomises just how good a job Megson has done to turn us around in less than 12 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maltbyowl Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I think we can do it but I think rest will too, going to be a tight 1 for 2nd with us and pigs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Owl Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Stevanage and Carlisle are both playing better now, more consistent than earlier in the season and will probably be a big factor as to how many points they can take off the top 5 clubs. Bournmouth could do well too and teams like Brentford are difficult to beat. I think 90 points will be almost certainly be good enough for 2nd and would be very surprised if 3rd placed team gets more than 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bald Owl Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I have changed the results so I make it 46 points. Just what I thought when I read that. Great minds, and I definitely think whoever gets second they'll need 92pts or more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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