After 15 matches it is almost set in stone (STATS) - season 3

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

For the third season running here is my 15 match thread (which I always do after 10 matches).

 

We have now played 10 matches.  Despite what people say about one team always coming from nowhere - this is absolute rubbish.  It hardly ever happens!

 

As a general rule if you are not within touching distance after 15 matches, you rarely make the top 6.  Indeed, I will go on to show that unless you have at least 20 points after 15 matches you can practically forget it. IN ACTUAL FACT IF YOU GET BELOW 20 POINTS IN ANY THIRD OF THE SEASON IT MAKES LIFE VERY DIFFICULT FOR YOU!

 

The league table after 15 matches looked like this last season:-

 

Newcastle 34

Brighton 31

Huddersfield 28

Norwich 27

Reading 25

Bristol C 24

Birmingham 24

Wednesday 24

Leeds 23

Brentford 22

Fulham 21

Barnsley 20

Preston 20

QPR 19

Villa 18

Ipswich 18

 

Familiar look to the final table?

 

The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 15/16:-

 

Hull 31

Burnley 31

Brighton 31

Derby 30

Boro 30

Brum 25

Reading 24

Wednesday 24

Cardiff 22

Ipswich 21

Brentford 20

Fulham 20

 

Familiar look to the final table?

 

This is the top 6 for the 16/17 season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches

 

Brighton 92- 31-30-31

Newcastle 91-34-31-26

Reading 85-25-31-26

Wednesday 81-24-28-29

Huddersfield 81-28-30-23

Fulham 80-21-25-34

 

So Last season the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Fulham with 21 in the first third.

 

and just for a chuckle you see where Leeds went wrong.

 

Leeds 74-23-31-20

 

This is the top 6 for 2015-16  broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches

 

Burnley 93 - 31 - 24 - 38

Boro 89 - 30 - 28 - 31

Brighton 89 - 31 - 25 - 33

Hull 83 - 31 - 28 - 24

Derby 78 - 30 - 21 - 27

Wednesday 74 - 24 - 26 - 24

 

So in 15/16, the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Derby with 21 in the second third.

 

Below is the top 6 for the season 2014-15 with the same breakdown:-

 

Bournemouth 90-27-31-32

Watford 89-29-24-36

Norwich 86-26-24-36

Middlesbrough 85-27-32-26

Brentford 78-22-30-26

Ipswich 78-24-27-27

 

Again, there is only one team (Brentford) to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs.

 

In 14/15 Derby suddenly fell away, showing that unless you have an exceptional 15 matches you really can't afford a mediocre 15 matches (77-26-31-20)

 

Points needed to reach play offs followed by points total of the 6th team after the first 15 games: 

 

2016/17 =  80 (Fulham). First 15 games Fulham had 21 points

 

2015/16 = 74 (Wednesday). First 15 games Wednesday had 24

 

2014/15 = 78 (Ipswich). First 15 games Ipswich had 24. 

 

2013/14 = 72 (Brighton). First 15 games Brighton had 21. 

 

2012/13 = 68 (Leicester). First 15 games Leicester had 26. 

 

2011/12 = 75 (Cardiff). First 15 games Cardiff had 24. 

 

2010/11 = 75 (Notts Forest). First 15 games Notts Forest had 20. 

 

 

6th spot average over 7 years = 74.6

 

6th spot teams after 15 games = 22.9

 

So in conclusion, it is highly unlikely that any team that has under 20 points after 15 matches will make the play offs. Ideally, you want at least 24 points.

 

In the last three years, if you are going to make the top 2, you need at least 27 points.

 

We currently have 13 points from 10 matches.  Are we confident of getting to at least 24?  Can we get to 27?

 

Our next 5 matches to take us to 15 are:-

 

H v Leeds

A v Bolton

A v Derby

H v Barnsley 

H v Millwall

 

Extreme Examples:-

 

Every season I have done this people have tried to come up with extreme examples. And there are a few but they are never as extreme as people remembered:-

 

Palace under Dowie

 

73 points - 16-25-32

 

Sunderland under Keane

 

88 points - 19 - 27 -42

 

Reading 89-18-33-38

 

Blackpool 70-24-16-30

 

They are the only extreme examples I can find in 20 years. By extreme I mean less than 20 points in either the first or second third.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[torryowl]

maybe this season will be different ........

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

6 minutes ago, torryowl said:

maybe this season will be different ........

Maybe we'll be on 28 points after 15 matches and won't need it to be :-)

[torryowl]

4 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

Maybe we'll be on 28 points after 15 matches and won't need it to be :-)

that's more like it mate ..a bit of optimism never goes amiss 

[owls101]

i reckon we will get 8 more points taking us to 21 after 15. Still on, just, but would need us to have strong 2nd and 3rd sections and I'm not that confident.

 

Will be touch and go this season 

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

We all know that under Carlos, Wednesday have been slow starters in August.

 

But we have managed to get to 24 points after 15 matches on both occasions.

 

We really could do with 4 wins from the next 5.  If we have a miracle on Saturday, I would say it's achievable.

Edited September 29, 2017 by HirstWhoScoredIt

[Pod9]

That was just far too many stats to take in this early. 

 

Cant you just tell me if we will make playoffs again or not? 

[Captain Sl-OWL-ly]

32 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

We all know that under Carlos, Wednesday have been slow starters in August.

 

But we have managed to get to 24 points after 15 matches on both occasions.

 

We really could do with 4 wins from the next 5.  If we have a miracle on Saturday, I would say it's achievable.

 

Saturday? - don’t we play Leeds Sunday?

[The Coorong Owl]

6 minutes ago, Pod9 said:

That was just far too many stats to take in this early. 

 

Cant you just tell me if we will make playoffs again or not? 

 

It's been cross eyed stuff on the field he's just making us be cross eyed in between games so we don't strain an eye muscle on match day 

[OwlofOliveGrove]

So we've got 5 matches to get ourselves 7 points (or ideally a lot more) to put us back into the possible promotion chase, otherwise it just won't happen.

 

5 wins gets us up to 28pts!  Which is about as likely as CC starting with a 3-5-2 formation.

 

Yeah, we're in a pickle.

 

[fred mciver]

If we can get anywhere near top 6 by Xmas, would then take an amazing transfer window.

 

Let's see what DC's really made of.

 

And it is clearly not just about dosh.

[Spookone]

We will get over that 20 points without any problems but getting to the 24 of last season may well be out of our reach.

 

Very interesting OP by the way 

[BRADDO]

Great post

[sonofbert2]

Fantastic post and should be pinned.

 

 

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

1 hour ago, Pod9 said:

That was just far too many stats to take in this early. 

 

Cant you just tell me if we will make playoffs again or not? 

Unless we have 24 points after 15 matches it is unlikely.

 

if we have under 20, it is extremely unlikely.

 

If we have 15 or fewer, it would take a new division record.

[the monk]

1 hour ago, Pod9 said:

That was just far too many stats to take in this early. 

 

Cant you just tell me if we will make playoffs again or not? 

Think it means we are playing c rap

[M Royds]

The crux of it all is we’ve been absolutely shît and going backwards. 

[GoldGigsChris]

Great post @HirstWhoScoredIt

 

Thank you for your in-depth analysis. It really shows how much we need to turn this around quickly.

 

We ideally need 3 or 4 wins from the next 5 to save our season.

[RichSheffWeds]

Excellent post, thank you.

 

We basically need to win 4 out of next 5 games. 3 wins and a draw would keep the season alive - just.

 

And that is just to get in the play offs. Automatic is as likely as Kelly Brook knocking on my door and asking to stay the night.

 

Carry on as we are and after 15 games our season will be over.

 

 

[daleblue]

1 hour ago, Pod9 said:

That was just far too many stats to take in this early. 

 

Cant you just tell me if we will make playoffs again or not? 

On current form. No.