After 15 matches it is almost set in stone (STATS) - season 3

[We'llNeverBeMastered]

10 minutes ago, rob chester said:

Felt that our only hope is to get to Christmas and hope to be near enough to the play offs to have a throw of the dice in January might take some wheeler dealing but everyone would be delighted with that scenario at present

 

 

I wouldn't, I'd rather us miss out than have to go through another play off heartache. 

[RUMBELOWS91]

On 29/09/2017 at 08:12, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

For the third season running here is my 15 match thread (which I always do after 10 matches).

 

We have now played 10 matches.  Despite what people say about one team always coming from nowhere - this is absolute rubbish.  It hardly ever happens!

 

As a general rule if you are not within touching distance after 15 matches, you rarely make the top 6.  Indeed, I will go on to show that unless you have at least 20 points after 15 matches you can practically forget it. IN ACTUAL FACT IF YOU GET BELOW 20 POINTS IN ANY THIRD OF THE SEASON IT MAKES LIFE VERY DIFFICULT FOR YOU!

 

The league table after 15 matches looked like this last season:-

 

Newcastle 34

Brighton 31

Huddersfield 28

Norwich 27

Reading 25

Bristol C 24

Birmingham 24

Wednesday 24

Leeds 23

Brentford 22

Fulham 21

Barnsley 20

Preston 20

QPR 19

Villa 18

Ipswich 18

 

Familiar look to the final table?

 

The league table after 15 matches looked like this in 15/16:-

 

Hull 31

Burnley 31

Brighton 31

Derby 30

Boro 30

Brum 25

Reading 24

Wednesday 24

Cardiff 22

Ipswich 21

Brentford 20

Fulham 20

 

Familiar look to the final table?

 

This is the top 6 for the 16/17 season broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches

 

Brighton 92- 31-30-31

Newcastle 91-34-31-26

Reading 85-25-31-26

Wednesday 81-24-28-29

Huddersfield 81-28-30-23

Fulham 80-21-25-34

 

So Last season the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Fulham with 21 in the first third.

 

and just for a chuckle you see where Leeds went wrong.

 

Leeds 74-23-31-20

 

This is the top 6 for 2015-16  broken down by final points - first 15 matches - second 15 matches - last 16 matches

 

Burnley 93 - 31 - 24 - 38

Boro 89 - 30 - 28 - 31

Brighton 89 - 31 - 25 - 33

Hull 83 - 31 - 28 - 24

Derby 78 - 30 - 21 - 27

Wednesday 74 - 24 - 26 - 24

 

So in 15/16, the only team to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs was Derby with 21 in the second third.

 

Below is the top 6 for the season 2014-15 with the same breakdown:-

 

Bournemouth 90-27-31-32

Watford 89-29-24-36

Norwich 86-26-24-36

Middlesbrough 85-27-32-26

Brentford 78-22-30-26

Ipswich 78-24-27-27

 

Again, there is only one team (Brentford) to get below 24 points in ANY third of the season and still make the play offs.

 

In 14/15 Derby suddenly fell away, showing that unless you have an exceptional 15 matches you really can't afford a mediocre 15 matches (77-26-31-20)

 

Points needed to reach play offs followed by points total of the 6th team after the first 15 games: 

 

2016/17 =  80 (Fulham). First 15 games Fulham had 21 points

 

2015/16 = 74 (Wednesday). First 15 games Wednesday had 24

 

2014/15 = 78 (Ipswich). First 15 games Ipswich had 24. 

 

2013/14 = 72 (Brighton). First 15 games Brighton had 21. 

 

2012/13 = 68 (Leicester). First 15 games Leicester had 26. 

 

2011/12 = 75 (Cardiff). First 15 games Cardiff had 24. 

 

2010/11 = 75 (Notts Forest). First 15 games Notts Forest had 20. 

 

 

6th spot average over 7 years = 74.6

 

6th spot teams after 15 games = 22.9

 

So in conclusion, it is highly unlikely that any team that has under 20 points after 15 matches will make the play offs. Ideally, you want at least 24 points.

 

In the last three years, if you are going to make the top 2, you need at least 27 points.

 

We currently have 13 points from 10 matches.  Are we confident of getting to at least 24?  Can we get to 27?

 

Our next 5 matches to take us to 15 are:-

 

H v Leeds

A v Bolton

A v Derby

H v Barnsley 

H v Millwall

 

Extreme Examples:-

 

Every season I have done this people have tried to come up with extreme examples. And there are a few but they are never as extreme as people remembered:-

 

Palace under Dowie

 

73 points - 16-25-32

 

Sunderland under Keane

 

88 points - 19 - 27 -42

 

Reading 89-18-33-38

 

Blackpool 70-24-16-30

 

They are the only extreme examples I can find in 20 years. By extreme I mean less than 20 points in either the first or second third.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Such a great post to refer back to this.

 

After yesterday we're in with a shout again of recording an acceptable number of points over the first 15 games.

 

 

[owlandished]

On 29/09/2017 at 21:55, owlandished said:

 

It's perfectly possible we win all those 5 and get 15 points

 

Only 4 more to go

 

[Holmowl]

On 29/09/2017 at 08:12, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

 

So in conclusion, it is highly unlikely that any team that has under 20 points after 15 matches will make the play offs. Ideally, you want at least 24 points.

 

In the last three years, if you are going to make the top 2, you need at least 27 points.

 

We currently have 13 points from 10 matches.  Are we confident of getting to at least 24?  Can we get to 27?

 

Our next 5 matches to take us to 15 are:-

 

H v Leeds

A v Bolton

A v Derby

H v Barnsley 

H v Millwall

 

 

 

Brilliant findings as usual from you. 

 

Sunday's match takes us to 16 from 11. An away to Bolton and two homes to modest sides should/could/need to see us take 9 points, so it is not too far-fetched to hope we get to 25/26 points after "your 15 matches".

 

If we play with the desire and tempo we saw yesterday that is.

[Pulcinella]

There's everything to play for this season.

1. There's no runaway team this year so far.
2. There's only 4 points between 1st and 6th.
3. Looking at the last 2 seasons, it's much more like when Hull went up than Huddersfield.

Obviously it's a big shame we didn't beat Utd & Brum. We'd be in third place, 2 points behind the leaders if we had done so.

 

But on current form, it looks like the automatics isn't going to need such a high total number of points.

 

We're on equal points to 2015/16, and one behind 2016/17.

[owlandished]

I think Keane took over Sunderland after a poor start, and marched them into the automatics

 

Just saying.....

[DuttyTeabags]

We should win every game in Oct 

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

This is not looking good at all.

[owls101]

We need to win the next 2 or we're fooked. 

[robowl4life]

Doesn't matter about the playoffs cos we're going up via the top 2... apparently 

[billyblack]

On 02/10/2017 at 12:40, DuttyTeabags said:

We should win every game in Oct 

i should win the lottery too

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

Oh dear.

[Mr Farrell]

Stats aren't needed to know Carlos can't take this club anywhere.

 

That's glaringly obvious.

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

6 minutes ago, Mr Farrell said:

Stats aren't needed to know Carlos can't take this club anywhere.

 

That's glaringly obvious.

True.  But what they do show is that unless we beat Millwall we've probably left it too late to change it - as far as this season goes.

[RockieOwl]

On ‎29‎/‎09‎/‎2017 at 08:12, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

As a general rule if you are not within touching distance after 15 matches, you rarely make the top 6.  Indeed, I will go on to show that unless you have at least 20 points after 15 matches you can practically forget it. IN ACTUAL FACT IF YOU GET BELOW 20 POINTS IN ANY THIRD OF THE SEASON IT MAKES LIFE VERY DIFFICULT FOR YOU!

 

 

Clinging onto this.

 

Also that Fulham only had one more point at this stage last year.