i used to be sc_owl Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 I was a bit bored and this is what I found out. If you score 80 goals a season you stand a decent chance of promotion. Average number of goals scored by season: 2018/2019 Top 2: 85.5 3rd - 6th: 77.75 Teams that scored 70 or more and did not hit top-six: Brentford 11th 2017/2018 Top 2: 75.5 3rd - 6th: 71.75 Teams that scored 70 or more and did not hit top-six: Hull 18th 2016/2017 Top 2: 79.5 3rd - 6th: 67.25* Teams that scored 70 or more and did not hit top-six: Norwich 8th, Brentford 10th 2015/2016 Top 2: 67.5 3rd - 6th: 68.25 Teams that scored 70 or more and did not hit top-six: Brentford 9th 2014/2015 Top 2: 94.5 3rd - 6th: 76.5 Teams that scored 70 or more and did not hit top-six: Wolves 7th, Derby 8th, Notts Forest 14th Across the last five seasons, the average number of goals needed: Top 2: 80.5 3rd - 6th: 72.3 SWFC goals scored, conceded and final league position: 2018/2019: 60, 62 & 12th 2017/2018: 59, 60 & 15th 2016/2017: 60, 45 & 4th 2015/2016: 66, 45 & 6th 2014/2015: 43, 49 & 13th Average: 57.6, 52.2, 10th *we finished 4th scoring 60 league goals. Huddersfield finished one below us on 56 goals. This is pretty unusual and eight other clubs below us scored more goals, including Notts Forest who finished 21st and scored 62 goals. We need goals. Out of the last five years, the two times we got to the play-offs were the years with the lowest goals needed to hit top-six. The first criticism one can make of my (fairly simple) analysis is why did I look at five years? No particular reason, I just plucked the number from the air. It seems like a reasonable amount of time to look at trends in this way. To get promoted, we need to score 80 goals. I think we will need to secure at least half of these goals from our strikers, and our midfielders need to contribute more as well. What about defence? Goals conceded: 2018/2019 Top 2: 49 3rd - 6th: 56.75 2017/2018 Top 2: 39 3rd - 6th: 45.25 2016/2017 Top 2: 40 3rd - 6th: 56 2015/2016 Top 2: 33 3rd - 6th: 41.25 2014/2015 Top 2: 47.5 3rd - 6th: 49.5 Across the last five seasons, the average number of goals conceded: Top 2: 41.7 3rd - 6th: 49.75 SWFC goals scored, conceded and final league position: 2018/2019: 60, 62 & 12th 2017/2018: 59, 60 & 15th 2016/2017: 60, 45 & 4th 2015/2016: 66, 45 & 6th 2014/2015: 43, 49 & 13th Average: 57.6, 52.2, 10th So, on average we need to score 23 more goals per season and concede around 10 less goals. If we do this, we stand a decent chance of top-two. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fpowl Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Well we need players who can Contribute then we hardly have defenders score and considering the height at centre back and attacking full backs they need to contribute more Iorfa style We Also need more from midfield there’s only reach who cam gold is head up this year with them bannan under Bruce seems to get forward more and the hope of super Keiren lee returns to his best may add to this we need another wife man that can chip in 8-12 goals then there’s the forwards I think Joao from the bench gives an excellent return. But we generally across the board we need more of Fletcher is going to be playing that solo front man he should be targeting 15 I’m guessing we might go one off him and that will be the goal scorer of 15 plus too deep runner, play maker Keiren lee? Forestieri? New? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i used to be sc_owl Posted May 6, 2019 Author Share Posted May 6, 2019 11 minutes ago, fpowl said: Well we need players who can Contribute then we hardly have defenders score and considering the height at centre back and attacking full backs they need to contribute more Iorfa style We Also need more from midfield there’s only reach who cam gold is head up this year with them bannan under Bruce seems to get forward more and the hope of super Keiren lee returns to his best may add to this we need another wife man that can chip in 8-12 goals then there’s the forwards I think Joao from the bench gives an excellent return. But we generally across the board we need more of Fletcher is going to be playing that solo front man he should be targeting 15 I’m guessing we might go one off him and that will be the goal scorer of 15 plus too deep runner, play maker Keiren lee? Forestieri? New? We don’t score anywhere near enough from midfield or defence. Ideally, we need something like: strikers: 40 goals wingers: 15 goals midfield: 15 goals defence: 10 goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogerwyldesmullet Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 TBH I like these kind of stats and it half explains why even in the season we finished 4th there was a degree of disgruntlement. Tin hat time, but I also think it shows that while we have effort in terms of Fletch and talent in terms of Joao, I doubt either of them are ever going to get the number of goals we need as front men. Nor is Atty. We might be better off giving Winnall a chance and chancing our arm with a loan signing from the Prem. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawksmore Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rogerwyldesmullet said: TBH I like these kind of stats and it half explains why even in the season we finished 4th there was a degree of disgruntlement. Tin hat time, but I also think it shows that while we have effort in terms of Fletch and talent in terms of Joao, I doubt either of them are ever going to get the number of goals we need as front men. Nor is Atty. We might be better off giving Winnall a chance and chancing our arm with a loan signing from the Prem. Agreed. None of our forwards have a 20 goal season in them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rev Owl Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Thanks for posting this. It highlights areas to improve and the level of improvement needed. I wonder if anyone at the club does this kind of analysis. I'm sure they do...... But wouldn't be surprised if they don't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i used to be sc_owl Posted May 6, 2019 Author Share Posted May 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, Rev Owl said: Thanks for posting this. It highlights areas to improve and the level of improvement needed. I wonder if anyone at the club does this kind of analysis. I'm sure they do...... But wouldn't be surprised if they don't! You’re welcome. This is extremely basic analysis and I would hope that Championship level clubs would be looking in much more depth with dedicated statistical analysis software. If I had time I would be running tests on most effective line ups, who plays better with who and that sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue and white Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 6 hours ago, i used to be sc_owl said: I was a bit bored and this is what I found out. If you score 80 goals a season you stand a decent chance of promotion. Average number of goals scored by season: 2018/2019 Top 2: 85.5 3rd - 6th: 77.75 Teams that scored 70 or more and did not hit top-six: Brentford 11th 2017/2018 Top 2: 75.5 3rd - 6th: 71.75 Teams that scored 70 or more and did not hit top-six: Hull 18th 2016/2017 Top 2: 79.5 3rd - 6th: 67.25* Teams that scored 70 or more and did not hit top-six: Norwich 8th, Brentford 10th 2015/2016 Top 2: 67.5 3rd - 6th: 68.25 Teams that scored 70 or more and did not hit top-six: Brentford 9th 2014/2015 Top 2: 94.5 3rd - 6th: 76.5 Teams that scored 70 or more and did not hit top-six: Wolves 7th, Derby 8th, Notts Forest 14th Across the last five seasons, the average number of goals needed: Top 2: 80.5 3rd - 6th: 72.3 SWFC goals scored, conceded and final league position: 2018/2019: 60, 62 & 12th 2017/2018: 59, 60 & 15th 2016/2017: 60, 45 & 4th 2015/2016: 66, 45 & 6th 2014/2015: 43, 49 & 13th Average: 57.6, 52.2, 10th *we finished 4th scoring 60 league goals. Huddersfield finished one below us on 56 goals. This is pretty unusual and eight other clubs below us scored more goals, including Notts Forest who finished 21st and scored 62 goals. We need goals. Out of the last five years, the two times we got to the play-offs were the years with the lowest goals needed to hit top-six. The first criticism one can make of my (fairly simple) analysis is why did I look at five years? No particular reason, I just plucked the number from the air. It seems like a reasonable amount of time to look at trends in this way. To get promoted, we need to score 80 goals. I think we will need to secure at least half of these goals from our strikers, and our midfielders need to contribute more as well. What about defence? Goals conceded: 2018/2019 Top 2: 49 3rd - 6th: 56.75 2017/2018 Top 2: 39 3rd - 6th: 45.25 2016/2017 Top 2: 40 3rd - 6th: 56 2015/2016 Top 2: 33 3rd - 6th: 41.25 2014/2015 Top 2: 47.5 3rd - 6th: 49.5 Across the last five seasons, the average number of goals conceded: Top 2: 41.7 3rd - 6th: 49.75 SWFC goals scored, conceded and final league position: 2018/2019: 60, 62 & 12th 2017/2018: 59, 60 & 15th 2016/2017: 60, 45 & 4th 2015/2016: 66, 45 & 6th 2014/2015: 43, 49 & 13th Average: 57.6, 52.2, 10th So, on average we need to score 23 more goals per season and concede around 10 less goals. If we do this, we stand a decent chance of top-two. So what your saying in a round about way is score more, conced less and promotion is there for the taking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i used to be sc_owl Posted May 6, 2019 Author Share Posted May 6, 2019 Just now, Blue and white said: So what your saying in a round about way is score more, conced less and promotion is there for the taking. Nailed it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daleblue Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 You need to go join @asteener1867 in the bored corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birley Owl 1867 Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 You can see the reason why Carlos decided to play like he did in 16/17 right there in those 15/16 stats. Burnley, Boro and Hull, all boring teams who all got promoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Scoring goals has been a problem for us for a while. We haven't got a 20 goal a season striker and we don't score enough goals from other areas. Whether this will change anytime soon is very much open to question as I don't expect any new strikers coming in this summer. It'll be all about being defensively strong for us to be where we want to be which we were when we finished in the Top 6 in consecutive seasons under CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i used to be sc_owl Posted May 6, 2019 Author Share Posted May 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, A12owl said: That's a huge amount of work @i used to be sc_owl well done for your diligence However could I suggest that by only scoring 46 goals and conceding 0 we would be guaranteed to be Champions. Sorry to blow your theory away. thanks @A12owl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i used to be sc_owl Posted May 6, 2019 Author Share Posted May 6, 2019 24 minutes ago, Birley Owl 1867 said: You can see the reason why Carlos decided to play like he did in 16/17 right there in those 15/16 stats. Burnley, Boro and Hull, all boring teams who all got promoted. Yup. If only we had gone for it in the first leg against Huddersfield as they were there for the taking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldishowl Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 You have to have players across the 10 outfield players who have got goals in them. Players don’t all of a sudden become goalscorers they either are or aren’t. If you look at full back, centre back , centre midfield then in recent teams these players have just not been goalscorers. This has to change. You then have to understand in your style of play how you are going to create goal scoring chances and how you expect to score. Again we haven’t had this. It’s all been wing and a prayer stuff from a worldie. We must be top of the league for great goals! If you have a striker who only scores tap ins , then you need to create tap in chances. This is what the top two did this season. They had a 20 goal striker but only because the style each team played suited the players. Bruce has a massive job to devise the style we are going to play, sign players that suit it and get the goals from more positions in the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i used to be sc_owl Posted May 6, 2019 Author Share Posted May 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, oldishowl said: You have to have players across the 10 outfield players who have got goals in them. Players don’t all of a sudden become goalscorers they either are or aren’t. If you look at full back, centre back , centre midfield then in recent teams these players have just not been goalscorers. This has to change. You then have to understand in your style of play how you are going to create goal scoring chances and how you expect to score. Again we haven’t had this. It’s all been wing and a prayer stuff from a worldie. We must be top of the league for great goals! If you have a striker who only scores tap ins , then you need to create tap in chances. This is what the top two did this season. They had a 20 goal striker but only because the style each team played suited the players. Bruce has a massive job to devise the style we are going to play, sign players that suit it and get the goals from more positions in the team. Crosses are key if we are planning to use Fletch as our leading man. We need pace out wide with players who know how to cross a ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Toni Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Even from our normal goal return a high proportion have been goal of the month contenders from outside the box. This can be said for the past 3-4 seasons. What I'd give just to have a poacher in the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i used to be sc_owl Posted May 6, 2019 Author Share Posted May 6, 2019 40 minutes ago, Junk Smuggler said: Even from our normal goal return a high proportion have been goal of the month contenders from outside the box. This can be said for the past 3-4 seasons. What I'd give just to have a poacher in the team. We had Rhodes. Then tried to use him as a bloody target man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMBELOWS91 Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 I've just seen David McGoldrick fore Sheffield United into the Premier League. I'm done predicting where goals can come from. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i used to be sc_owl Posted May 6, 2019 Author Share Posted May 6, 2019 31 minutes ago, RUMBELOWS91 said: I've just seen David McGoldrick fore Sheffield United into the Premier League. I'm done predicting where goals can come from. Not just him, but a strike force containing Leon Clarke and Gary Madine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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