Do bookmakers know something

[northeastowl]

19 hours ago, bigrbuk said:

 

You do realise betting on something doesn't mean you want it to happen right? Nor will it make it happen, It just makes you richer if it does. Leave emotion at the door if you're gonna gamble.

I backed Hull to beat us in the play off final. If we won we’d be in the premier league and I’d have lost £100 (would have been more than happy to do so). As it turns out we lost and I had some funds to go towards my season ticket. 

[Beany71]

You do know if they take points of us they won't take players off us? The teams at the bottom are there because they are crap. Taking points of us wouldn't turn us in to a poor side, it would put us there for a short while but if we keep on as we are then we will pull away again.

 

(in theory)

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

Come on guys, this really is not very complicated.

 

We have a similar points haul to Forest and Preston but we are far shorter odds to go down than them because we have a possible points deduction coming.  Probably between 12 and 21 points depending on which rumour you believe.

 

Therefore we are bound to be far shorter odds than Forest and Preston.

 

People are then saying yes but if you base our average points we are going to get X and even with the points deduction we'll be on Y - no Sh11t Sherlock!!!!  That is why we are 14/1 instead of 3/1.

 

How this thread has made 5 pages with the most inane drivel, I will never know.

[Steelman]

23 hours ago, WelshOwl74 said:

Why anyone would wanna bet on us to get relegated is beyond me 

£15 @ 33/1 with a points deduction and transfer embargo impending. It pays out £510. That will pay for a League 1 season ticket and the first couple of away days as I'll still go no matter what division we're in.

 

The real question is why someone wouldn't?

[31Dec1966]

On 09/12/2019 at 16:16, handworth52 said:

just don't agree with  anyone who puts money on us to go down its the equivalent  of some smack head stealing off his mother or kid as I don't think a lot realise the seriousness the state the club would be in , just staying in league 1 would be an achievement , at all costs we must avoid going down ,it would be financial suicide ,we are appx 20 million over budget if the efl don't allow the ground sale , going down the club would be about 10-12 million a season worse off , im pretty sure chansiri would consider putting us into administration to clear all the wages what we cant afford now even with the extra 10-12 million what you get staying in the championship. it could be that we would be in boltons predicament and that's a very real threat.  lets hope common sense happens and at worst we get something like 10 points and then can move on from this. 

Someone betting on the outcome does'nt affect the outcome at all.  I often bet against Wednesday, I have inside knowledge, and if there's an opportunity to make some money I take it. Doesn't mean I want it to happen.  Derby are 2-1 on Wednesday, that is very good value. They are at home, they aren't far behind us and (although this shouldn't be a factor) we have a dismal record against them.  We are inconsistent too.  Me betting some of my winnings this season on Derby makes no difference to the result, and, if I do bet, I hope I lose.

[fatbloke no1]

21 hours ago, ka58 said:

lets say you were given inside information that Wednesday were going to be given a 60 point deduction by efl and would be relegated.

 

youre the only one who knows.

 

wednesday are on ladbrokes at 50/1 to go down and you have a grand in the bank.

 

you can make £50k - what do you do?

lucky to get 50 quid on nj mind 5ok

[31Dec1966]

22 hours ago, Bulgaria said:

Might be wrong but I think I read somewhere that bets are void if a points penalty is used to relegate a team.

For the record I make a few quid on betting on us to lose in Dave Jones final weeks.

You are wrong!  The bet is being relegated, not number of points.

[sherlyegg]

48 minutes ago, 31Dec1966 said:

You are wrong!  The bet is being relegated, not number of points.

https://www.scottishlegal.com/article/gambler-who-bet-rangers-would-be-relegated-loses-250k-claim-against-bookies

 

I doubt the bookies would pay out if we were auto relegated or a big points deduction.

Otherwise it's bang open for rule makers..

[Neon Nick]

10 hours ago, Beany71 said:

You do know if they take points of us they won't take players off us? The teams at the bottom are there because they are crap. Taking points of us wouldn't turn us in to a poor side, it would put us there for a short while but if we keep on as we are then we will pull away again.

 

(in theory)

You make a very good point.

[pat blondeau]

7 hours ago, 31Dec1966 said:

Someone betting on the outcome does'nt affect the outcome at all.  I often bet against Wednesday, I have inside knowledge, and if there's an opportunity to make some money I take it. Doesn't mean I want it to happen.  Derby are 2-1 on Wednesday, that is very good value. They are at home, they aren't far behind us and (although this shouldn't be a factor) we have a dismal record against them.  We are inconsistent too.  Me betting some of my winnings this season on Derby makes no difference to the result, and, if I do bet, I hope I lose.

I’ve put £20 on relegation at 80-1. It won’t happen, I just thought those odds were far too big given the unknowns when the charge came out. 

 

But I’d never bet on Wednesday to lose an individual game. I don’t like to have any mixed emotions when Wednesday score or concede. If I bet on a Wednesday game it’s only ever on us to win or score the next goal. It can make the celebration even better if a bet has come in too. We went out to 10-1 in running on Saturday... that was the time to back us but I missed it! 
 

How much have you put on Derby tomorrow and is it really worth it for what you’d win? And if Wednesday score a last minute equaliser that sends your bet down, would that affect how you celebrate the goal?

[pat blondeau]

3 hours ago, sherlyegg said:

https://www.scottishlegal.com/article/gambler-who-bet-rangers-would-be-relegated-loses-250k-claim-against-bookies

 

I doubt the bookies would pay out if we were auto relegated or a big points deduction.

Otherwise it's bang open for rule makers..

No one involved in football is allowed to bet on football.

 

http://www.thefa.com/football-rules-governance/policies/betting-rules

 

Potential lifetime ban from the game and fine if you’re caught and have inside information.

 

And any big bets would be flagged by the bookies

[thewookieisdown]

In the old days I used to back us to win cups. In '91 I had £3 on us to win the League Cup at 66s. Got a very nice reception and handshakes from a cpuple of customers when I collected from the Ladbrokes on the Iffley Road in Oxford. "We've been dying to see who it was". Bet placed more than seven months earlier.

 

A good insurance bet. An expensive business, winning a cup. Lots of people expect a beer, not unreasonably.

 

 

[Mrmason69]

Ask Peter Swan, bronco Lane and Tony kay 

They were the bookies best friends when playing for us. 

 

[sherlyegg]

They deffo won't pay out if we are deducted points after the last match and relegated....or auto relegated.

 

Still 15/8 top 6

[31Dec1966]

17 hours ago, nilsson said:

I’ve put £20 on relegation at 80-1. It won’t happen, I just thought those odds were far too big given the unknowns when the charge came out. 

 

But I’d never bet on Wednesday to lose an individual game. I don’t like to have any mixed emotions when Wednesday score or concede. If I bet on a Wednesday game it’s only ever on us to win or score the next goal. It can make the celebration even better if a bet has come in too. We went out to 10-1 in running on Saturday... that was the time to back us but I missed it! 
 

How much have you put on Derby tomorrow and is it really worth it for what you’d win? And if Wednesday score a last minute equaliser that sends your bet down, would that affect how you celebrate the goal?

If Wednesday score a last minute equaliser I will do what I normally do, go berserk!   As I, and others have pointed out, Backing the opposition doesn't mean I want them to win. The only way to bet is with your head not your heart. I only bet what i can afford to lose, small sums so it doesn't really matter, although most seasons I make a profit .  During the match I never even think of the bet.  I look for good value for my money so very rarely bet at long odds. United have been very good value several times this season so I'm not ashamed to say I've backed them and am now running a healthy profit (I'd love them to go down but they're not going to).

For the record I've put £5 on Derby at 2-1, and £5 on the draw at 9-4, which is excellent value. I will be delirious if I lose my money though.