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Do bookmakers know something


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6 hours ago, fatbloke no1 said:

Just had quick look at current relegation odds,we are 14/1, whereas Preston and forest who are near us are250/1 and 500/1.Probably them just been cautious 

Maybe they have a points deduction in mind. 

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10 hours ago, Sergeant Tibbs said:

I’ve looked at the odds purely because the bookies usually get it right.

On the basis that the would get a 12 point deduction, we would be described as relegation candidates.

I take you didnt look at the odds when we was looking for a new manager. At one point lee bullen was 1/10

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9 hours ago, ka58 said:


lets say you were given inside information that Wednesday were going to be given a 60 point deduction by efl and would be relegated.

 

youre the only one who knows.

 

wednesday are on ladbrokes at 50/1 to go down and you have a grand in the bank.

 

you can make £50k - what do you do?

Borrow another 100k..

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Bookies don't know anything, other than who's betting on whom, that's where their "odds" come from.  Bunch of people betting on this team or that, is how they set their "odds",  don't look to them to clue you into which teams are going to place where, and so on.  They rely on Fans, for their "odds", and then it's just a matter of quantitative & statistical analysis, what will they lose in a worst case scenario, what will they make in a best case scenario, what will they make in a split-scenario?  

 

I don't bet, and have nothing against people whom do.  But if I did bet, it would never be against Wednesday.  True, betting against Wednesday, does not affect the Club, but it is something akin to "treason", as Lord Snooty so aptly put it, because such a bet is another "data point", against Wednesday, in the eyes of Bookies.  

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5 hours ago, Simon78 said:

I take you didnt look at the odds when we was looking for a new manager. At one point lee bullen was 1/10

Different type of betting market, I'm sure Hughton was odds on at some point. Doesn't take a great deal of money to change a massive price swing. There was a whole thread on here about Gary Rowett.

Bookies wont get it right everytime, but if you look at the relegation market now, is it a fair reflection  ? I suspect Barnsley / Luton / Wigan are justifiable favourites to go down,

 

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17 hours ago, fatbloke no1 said:

Just had quick look at current relegation odds,we are 14/1, whereas Preston and forest who are near us are250/1 and 500/1.Probably them just been cautious 

bookmakers 'adjust' odds according to the betting.

let me explain in more detail, IF someone lumps a huge amount on a singular bet like us going down then it will shorten the odds. IF a significant number of people put a much smaller amount on the same, then this also will shorten the odds. the bookmaker does this to reduce his pay out should the bet 'come in'. 

a number of pig fans putting a £2 or £5 wishful bet on would have influenced those odds too, in the hope some wednesday fans would pick up on it and start to worry or panic over it.

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34 minutes ago, Neon Nick said:

Bookies don't know anything, other than who's betting on whom, that's where their "odds" come from.  Bunch of people betting on this team or that, is how they set their "odds",  don't look to them to clue you into which teams are going to place where, and so on.  They rely on Fans, for their "odds", and then it's just a matter of quantitative & statistical analysis, what will they lose in a worst case scenario, what will they make in a best case scenario, what will they make in a split-scenario?  

 

I don't bet, and have nothing against people whom do.  But if I did bet, it would never be against Wednesday.  True, betting against Wednesday, does not affect the Club, but it is something akin to "treason", as Lord Snooty so aptly put it, because such a bet is another "data point", against Wednesday, in the eyes of Bookies.  

it'll be pig fans causing a stir, AND they've managed to get one by the looks of this lot.

it'll have caught on t'sty and the bookies will have frozen the odd's to take stock.

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