Owl In Black Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 11 minutes ago, steelowl said: It's unfortunate for us but the prospect of relegation for the teams above as certainly woken them all up i didn't expect to see southampton, coventry leicester's form suddenly collapse after beating us sod's law I suppose logically I'd say it's almost impossible for all the bottom 8 teams (excl rotherham) to keep picking pts up at these levels, there will be at least 2 falter hopefully not us one thing last year taught us is it's never over til it's over Bang on the money. I think what this chart shows us is that even though teams have picked up form these must win games aren't and won't cost us. We could lost to Plymouth on Tuesday and still be projecting to finish above 2 teams. The important games are those who are around us mostly. Take the points away from them and we survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cpt_Hatstand Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 In 2013 Peterborough got relegated on 54 points. After 35 games the table looked pretty similar to this year's (and the bottom 3 went down ) https://www.worldfootball.net/schedule/eng-championship-2012-2013-spieltag/35/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Crawshaw Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 It could turn out to be a similar season to 2016/17. Rotherham finished bottom with a record low of 23 points. Blackburn were relegated in 22nd with 51 points. There was 4 points between the 7 teams from 22nd place to 16th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian_D Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 38 minutes ago, Cpt_Hatstand said: In 2013 Peterborough got relegated on 54 points. After 35 games the table looked pretty similar to this year's (and the bottom 3 went down ) https://www.worldfootball.net/schedule/eng-championship-2012-2013-spieltag/35/ Bugga, they got 54 points and went down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southie_Owl Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 56 minutes ago, Cpt_Hatstand said: In 2013 Peterborough got relegated on 54 points. After 35 games the table looked pretty similar to this year's (and the bottom 3 went down ) https://www.worldfootball.net/schedule/eng-championship-2012-2013-spieltag/35/ Yeah i've been saying that 53 points would be enough, but clearly that may not be the case if its like 2013. But with the way all the teams around us are capable of winning games (besides Rotherham), suggests to me that it will be over 50 points being relegated this time. Usually in a relegation fight you can rely on dogger teams like Burnley and Pigs (in the PL) losing every week, but we are in a very competitive league this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
part timer owl Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Think we need more options available to us just in case of injuries. Maybe Gregory and a free agent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted March 7 Author Share Posted March 7 5/15 Our good from continues and we carry on maintaining a very healthy PPG rate. Especially Vs our rivals Cardiff are off and away now I reckon. They were always a long shot for catching having to amass a whole point per game more over 15 games. Interestingly, we could possibly bring some of the struggling sides towards the mid table into this now to see what our PPG would have needed to have been to catch them. Assumed anyone above Cardiff weren't for catching but our improved form has reeled some unexpected teams in with us. 10 games to go. We need to continue our form. Crucially, our PPG Vs others gives us breathing room. Stoke and Blackburn in real trouble if they can't get out the slump. New manager bumps wearing off for some now too. We didn't have one. We were so bad, and Danny is so good he had to halt the sink, and turn the whole boat round and now we are, currently, reaping the rewards of that. Anything off Leeds on Friday will represent a victory. But if we don't get anything this table shows that there's no need to panic, just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fpowl Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 On 04/03/2024 at 10:42, Cpt_Hatstand said: In 2013 Peterborough got relegated on 54 points. After 35 games the table looked pretty similar to this year's (and the bottom 3 went down ) https://www.worldfootball.net/schedule/eng-championship-2012-2013-spieltag/35/ Tables nothing like ours firstly 23rd to 21st has a 4 point gap meaning eleven a win for those in relegation zone would lift them above the pack in our current league 4 the 4 point gap takes you to above 16th and so could the next win the amount of tragic in danger of hitting that drop zone in our current league is staggering there’s no room for a run of bad form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted March 10 Author Share Posted March 10 Current state of play after 6 games Cardiff are now away and gone. Loss to Leeds hasnt harmed. Be great to get anything off Ipswich next game. Still looking like survival if current forms carry on as they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanidaho Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Below is a table for the last 10 seasons showing the points from 17th - 24th. As the PPG tracker estimates seem to suggest that this could be a season where a higher number of points are required for safety, comparable to the 19/20 season or even the 16/17. in the last 10 years, 52 points would save you, so that looks to be a target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanidaho Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 And using @Owl In Black PPG table, the end of season projection at current PPG's by the teams is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sova Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Wouldn't that analysis have Sunderland finishing 23rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted March 11 Author Share Posted March 11 7 hours ago, Sova said: Wouldn't that analysis have Sunderland finishing 23rd? Well yes, if they don't win again and everyone continues exactly as they are currently. Very unlikely. If we go back to the start of the thread, this is to track our PPG Vs our nearest rivals. At the time we started Sunderland weren't even on the radar. All we need to do is to hit the target PPG+ Vs 2 teams and we stay up. I'm not really trying to predict where we will finish but to show how we are actually doing in our bid for survival moving us away from singular must win games 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluesteel. Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 I’m sure when Peterborough went down on that many points it was some kind of record. I guess just like getting 90 odd points and finishing third! With so many teams involved surely some must get stuck around the 48- 50 point mark at the end of the season. 3/4 wins should put us in touching distance and give us an idea of what we need to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southie_Owl Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 i believe the stats say since Danny took over in October we are the 9th best team in the league, if that continues we certainly wouldn't be relegated once 46 games have been played out. But whilst we are still in the bottom 3 i will still feel nervous! Good Friday seems like the most realistic day when we can finally get out the drop zone looking at the fixtures. A point at ipswich would be a massive help with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N0rtherner Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 I hope we can get something from the game v Ipswich, and if we can get out of the relegation zone, my bet is on Birmingham and Huddersfield to join Rotherham.. Blackburn will find a way to avoid the drop, I think. But it's going to be a nervy 9 games left of the season... And I hope we'll only be a point behind the other teams if we get nothing again this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Crawshaw Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 On 07/03/2024 at 11:17, fpowl said: Tables nothing like ours firstly 23rd to 21st has a 4 point gap meaning eleven a win for those in relegation zone would lift them above the pack in our current league 4 the 4 point gap takes you to above 16th and so could the next win the amount of tragic in danger of hitting that drop zone in our current league is staggering there’s no room for a run of bad form This.... a defeat on Saturday, and a 2nd in a row, when our rivals are picking up points could kill us. Really need to get something from Ipswich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted March 11 Author Share Posted March 11 4 hours ago, Tommy Crawshaw said: This.... a defeat on Saturday, and a 2nd in a row, when our rivals are picking up points could kill us. Really need to get something from Ipswich. Think I've said already but these games, whilst they aren't free, the ones that really matter are the ones against teams around us. Every point matters, but when you can effectively double the impact of 3 points to your rivals even more so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owlprince Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 9 hours ago, N0rtherner said: I hope we can get something from the game v Ipswich, and if we can get out of the relegation zone, my bet is on Birmingham and Huddersfield to join Rotherham.. Blackburn will find a way to avoid the drop, I think. But it's going to be a nervy 9 games left of the season... And I hope we'll only be a point behind the other teams if we get nothing again this weekend. Blackburn have got really tough run in now till the end of the season. I think they are in major trouble they really lack depth outside of the first 11. Too close to call for me I feel optimistic of our chances against Ipswich and unexpected 3 points would give us a massive boost 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanidaho Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 On 11/03/2024 at 08:43, Owl In Black said: Well yes, if they don't win again and everyone continues exactly as they are currently. Very unlikely. If we go back to the start of the thread, this is to track our PPG Vs our nearest rivals. At the time we started Sunderland weren't even on the radar. All we need to do is to hit the target PPG+ Vs 2 teams and we stay up. I'm not really trying to predict where we will finish but to show how we are actually doing in our bid for survival moving us away from singular must win games maybe do the PPG table from sunderland down, that is a difference of 9 points from 12th - 23rd. as teams get above the 55 points level remove them from the list. (sorry @Owl In Black that is more work for you...) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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