MF TAZ Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 It really feels like if we can just get out the bottom 3 for a week we’d stay out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 16 hours ago, duncanidaho said: maybe do the PPG table from sunderland down, that is a difference of 9 points from 12th - 23rd. as teams get above the 55 points level remove them from the list. (sorry @Owl In Black that is more work for you...) Done. At the time I started the thread I had Bristol and Watford not for catching, they had games in hand, but with the last 6 games added and all games caught up on here is the current view. It is really tight and obviously any dips in form will see us going into the last day against a relegation rival, which they now are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted March 18 Author Share Posted March 18 So that was disastrous wasn't it? Thumped and our two best players injured!! From a PPG perspective, not a disaster by any means. Others (and I must stress) current form means we are projected to comfortably beat the drop still, even after the two defeats. Although the variances are thinning a little as we drop points. I've said all along our season will be defined by how we perform against those in and around us and these last two games have really highlighted that. All we need is another win to put us back on the happy path... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanidaho Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 the disaster now would be to lose to teams around us, a draw must be the very least we do. I can't see sunderland and watford not picking up enough points to reach safety, so we will only have a few teams we can catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S72 Owl Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 16 hours ago, duncanidaho said: the disaster now would be to lose to teams around us, a draw must be the very least we do. I can't see sunderland and watford not picking up enough points to reach safety, so we will only have a few teams we can catch. Not a chance we will finish 6 points clear of the relegation places. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, S72 Owl said: Not a chance we will finish 6 points clear of the relegation places. Statistically, based upon the last 7 games, we will. Realistically, I think I agree with you, that it will end up being a lot closer come the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJMortimer Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 6 hours ago, S72 Owl said: Not a chance we will finish 6 points clear of the relegation places. That could be possible if a couple of the other teams collapse, rather than us picking up lots of points. And let's face it, on current form and considering their upcoming opponents, Blackburn could well do that for a start. But I agree, the likelihood is that the pressure will see several of those teams raising their games and most of them still being involved going into the last couple of games. It's going to be a nervous few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanidaho Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 6 hours ago, S72 Owl said: Not a chance we will finish 6 points clear of the relegation places. they are just an estimate of points gained on current form since the thread started. it will probably be closer as you can't see some teams horrific form continuing. we could also end up 6 points behind safety if results go wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted April 5 Author Share Posted April 5 Apologies for no update (to those interested in this). Been a busy week or so! Here's where we currently stand. We do need to turn around our form but based on current PPG we're still surviving. Other teams are starting to change their own fortunes though so we've got to pick up a result somewhere to bolster our PPG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted April 8 Author Share Posted April 8 A much needed win to keep us on track to stay up Vs our rivals. As it stands it's boiling down to last day drama it would seem. Let's see what happens over the next couple of games... Two absolutely massive home games inc. 1 against a relegation rival. I'd take anything against Norwich, including a loss, providing we beat Stoke. Out of the 3 games stoke are the team we simply have to come away with 3 points from imo. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 Another point on the board. We are (currently) edging towards safety. Saturdays game against Stoke is a big one. Massive for them, even bigger for us. A real 6 pointer. Our saving grace is those around us have yet to make any great changes to their own form and we have, over the last 11 games, out performed all but 2 teams. Here's how the bottom of the table looks if everyone's points per game remains exactly the same (Plymouth or Blackburn would be decided by GD which would see Plymouth survive): As always, usual disclaimers this is as it stands today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted April 15 Author Share Posted April 15 Boy do we need a win soon... Probably more than one. Cardiff, Sunderland, Bristol are now mathematically safe and Swansea are as good as. Sunderland being safe is good news for us. They will be playing for nothing on the last day. A win at Blackburn would be most welcome, in fact I'd say it's needed. West Brom are by no means assured of their position yet so will be coming with pressure to win. It's arguably between us, Brum and Huddersfield with only Stoke QPR and Plymouth possibly dropping back into the mix depending on the results in the next few games. We're still "projected" to survive. But our PPG has been on a downward slide for a few weeks now and we are really now on the very brink. League standings on the basis everyone's PPG remains the same. Rotherham are gone so their bottom survives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted Tuesday at 08:18 Author Share Posted Tuesday at 08:18 The latest PPG Tracker. Lots of teams tracked now safe and out of reach. Cardiff down to Watford. QPR and Stoke I think with Huddersfield and Birmingham to play each other would be monumental F up to go down from here. So it appears to be a straight shootout between us Birmingham, Plymouth and Huddersfield. Over the last 14 games we have vastly outperformed these teams and if the form continues as is we are safe. We lose both and it's out of our hands. Real tough game against west brom on Saturday. And then on to Stadium of Light for the finale. 2 massive cup finals basically. Expected league standings based on PPG (note doesn't factor in GD and actually we would be 21st as it stands GD wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Crawshaw Posted Tuesday at 08:40 Share Posted Tuesday at 08:40 Just looking back through this thread shows how much these projections based on current form and ppg are a complete waste of time. Apart from just being a bit of fun, it never turns out as predicted. Even now with just 2 games to go, you can't reliably predict what's going to happen and which are the 2 teams that are going to drop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted Tuesday at 10:26 Author Share Posted Tuesday at 10:26 1 hour ago, Tommy Crawshaw said: Just looking back through this thread shows how much these projections based on current form and ppg are a complete waste of time. Apart from just being a bit of fun, it never turns out as predicted. Even now with just 2 games to go, you can't reliably predict what's going to happen and which are the 2 teams that are going to drop. Kind of agree with you to be fair. I thought the same, as we near to the end of it, it does now come down to the final 2 games, as you say. But, it does help when people suggest this game is the make or break or that game is. It showed that even when we lost, it wasn't all over and we were still on course to survive as we are now. Of course nothing is guaranteed in football. Remember, at the outset we just needed to ensure that we were picking up points at a rate of 0.5 or more which this has demonstrated we have been doing, even if we still fall short it will be because over the 15 game run in we didn't end up doing so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanidaho Posted Wednesday at 09:49 Share Posted Wednesday at 09:49 On 23/04/2024 at 09:40, Tommy Crawshaw said: Just looking back through this thread shows how much these projections based on current form and ppg are a complete waste of time. Apart from just being a bit of fun, it never turns out as predicted. Even now with just 2 games to go, you can't reliably predict what's going to happen and which are the 2 teams that are going to drop. To be fair this method has fairly constantly shown Huddersfield and Birmingham to be struggling over the period of PPG calculated. because it started with 15 games to go the fluctuations at the start were awry, but the longer it has gone the more realistic the result. I wouldn’t use it to go to the bookies with, but for a bit of fun and another way to compare how we’re doing in comparison to rivals it has been interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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