room0035 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 58 minutes ago, DJMortimer said: When engaging in these exercises, why do people often treat draws like they don't exist? Despite that lazy and baseless cliché that 'draws kill you', the difference between us and Huddersfield right now is that they have drawn 8 more (lost 8 fewer) games than we have. To be truthful honest i just look at how many points have kept team up over the last 6 seasons, i looked st our goal difference which is a lot worse than any team above us and said we need 21 points to get to 47 points which has should keep us up. Whether that comes from 7 wins and 7 losses, or 6 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses, or 5 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses, or 4 wins, 9 draws and 1 loss. I dont really care as long at the end of it we get another 21 points. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holmowl Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 hours ago, NorthernOwl said: As you say the next 4 games are huge and will dictate if we have any chance of staying up. Millwall and Rotherham are 22nd and 23rd in the home form table and Plymouth are 22nd in the away form table. If we can't beat the teams around us then we definitely don't deserve to stay up. As Elvia once said, it’s now or never. I hadn’t spotted Plymouth’s dire away form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 After 2 games the projection is currently still relegation due to QPR (unless those not included get dragged in). The outlook will be clearer after 5 or so games but certainly not a bad start to the 15 game run in. A loss to league leaders, but crucially beating a relegation rival. Birmingham motoring away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 In light of @duncanidaho comment about including some of the teams higher up the table I've made a revision to include those teams higher up and as things stand after 2/15 games the picture actually looks a lot better. If form were to continue exactly the same as the 2/15 games so far (extremely unlikely) we would finish above Cardiff, Plymouth, Blackburn, Swansea and Millwall. It should be noted that Brum, Plymouth, Cardiff & Blackburn all have a game in hand. Therefore depending on the outcome of those games the target PPG will be adjusted accordingly. 3 of those games in hand will be played tomorrow. Of which 2 teams are playing each other. As I said in my last post. It's a promising start but a mighty long way to go. And yes I know we just need to win games but the purpose of this will show after each game week whether we are on target to survive, or not. As it stands we would survive but we need more data (aka wins for us and losses for our rivals to solidify the projection) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 24 Author Share Posted February 24 Game week 3/15 update. Not a great week in that almost all teams won. But we kept up, the most important part. Keep winning the winnable games and we stay up. Simple as that. Credit to @duncanidaho for the updated table. Now showing PPG an estimated points IF PPG continues exactly the same (unlikely) but should make things make more sense as to how I am looking at the situation The current projection is to finish above 4 teams currently above us so, as it stands looking good for survival. Obviously with every win the possibility of surviving becomes more realistic. UTO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 24 Author Share Posted February 24 3 minutes ago, Warringtonowl said: Game week 3/15 update. Not a great week in that almost all teams won. But we kept up, the most important part. Keep winning the winnable games and we stay up. Simple as that. Credit to @duncanidaho for the updated table. Now showing PPG an estimated points IF PPG continues exactly the same (unlikely) but should make things make more sense as to how I am looking at the situation The current projection is to finish above 4 teams currently above us so, as it stands looking good for survival. Obviously with every win the possibility of surviving becomes more realistic. UTO Ignore table. Need to look at points totals as not quite right Vs table. Don't think it's negative affect as most teams have less points than my table says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluesteel. Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 I think we will need 50 points the way it’s going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 24 Author Share Posted February 24 16 minutes ago, Bluesteel. said: I think we will need 50 points the way it’s going? 49, the way it's currently going. Twists and turns of 12 games to go yet though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashamanic Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Victory against Rotherham will put Wednesday on 1 point per game over the whole season will probably need more than that to stay up, but it’s a decent achievement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owlinexile Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 2 hours ago, Warringtonowl said: Game week 3/15 update. Not a great week in that almost all teams won. But we kept up, the most important part. Keep winning the winnable games and we stay up. Simple as that. Credit to @duncanidaho for the updated table. Now showing PPG an estimated points IF PPG continues exactly the same (unlikely) but should make things make more sense as to how I am looking at the situation The current projection is to finish above 4 teams currently above us so, as it stands looking good for survival. Obviously with every win the possibility of surviving becomes more realistic. UTO You reckon Birmingham will go 12 games without dropping a point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 24 Author Share Posted February 24 13 minutes ago, owlinexile said: You reckon Birmingham will go 12 games without dropping a point? Obviously not... You'll note I put "(unlikely)" that PPG will remain the same. But, considering the context and the point of the thread, their current projection would see them do so as they have won 3 from 3 giving them a PPG of 3 and if they carry on with a PPG of 3 then they will. As teams win and lose their PPG will adjust as will their estimated points. That's the point of the thread to give a projection on where we are at V our rivals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Clemente Owl Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 34 minutes ago, Warringtonowl said: Obviously not... You'll note I put "(unlikely)" that PPG will remain the same. But, considering the context and the point of the thread, their current projection would see them do so as they have won 3 from 3 giving them a PPG of 3 and if they carry on with a PPG of 3 then they will. As teams win and lose their PPG will adjust as will their estimated points. That's the point of the thread to give a projection on where we are at V our rivals Birmingham lost today though?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 24 Author Share Posted February 24 19 minutes ago, San Clemente Owl said: Birmingham lost today though?? Yep. You're right. Will check few things and update. Not sure what I was thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 Corrected table: As expected minimal impact on the summary. Still projecting to finish above 4 of our rivals. Can clearly see the form teams currently and hopefully we continue our form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 Game 4/15. Although many teams directly around us got something our win means we continue our survival projection. At this rate I might have to go and get a few others from the bottom half as the bottom 4 teams (excl. Rov'rum) seems to be the form teams and they seem to get dragged ever closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanidaho Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 13 hours ago, Warringtonowl said: Game 4/15. Although many teams directly around us got something our win means we continue our survival projection. At this rate I might have to go and get a few others from the bottom half as the bottom 4 teams (excl. Rov'rum) seems to be the form teams and they seem to get dragged ever closer. The way the bottom teams are picking up points is crazy. I can’t imagine the projected points for all the teams will remain so high, it would need an unprecedented exceptional season for this to happen. a bit like a team in the 3rd tier winning 96 points and not getting automatic promotion… this table will hopefully start to look more real in 3 or 4 more fixtures to smooth out the average PPG. it is basically a handicap mini league or like the old krypton factor where contestants get a head start based on previous performance and another way to assess our survival chances rather than just look at the points on the board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pixelpaint64 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 On 03/03/2024 at 08:25, duncanidaho said: The way the bottom teams are picking up points is crazy. I can’t imagine the projected points for all the teams will remain so high, it would need an unprecedented exceptional season for this to happen. a bit like a team in the 3rd tier winning 96 points and not getting automatic promotion… this table will hopefully start to look more real in 3 or 4 more fixtures to smooth out the average PPG. it is basically a handicap mini league or like the old krypton factor where contestants get a head start based on previous performance and another way to assess our survival chances rather than just look at the points on the board. Yes. Agreed. I hadn't expected us to be averaging over 2 PTS per game and I'd be surprised if by a week on Saturday that were to be the same. Nor QPR who are going well. As with averages, the more data the more true the average will be and most importantly less volatile. So we hole that those struggling continue to struggle and we keep winning, starting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steelowl Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 It's unfortunate for us but the prospect of relegation for the teams above as certainly woken them all up i didn't expect to see southampton, coventry leicester's form suddenly collapse after beating us sod's law I suppose logically I'd say it's almost impossible for all the bottom 8 teams (excl rotherham) to keep picking pts up at these levels, there will be at least 2 falter hopefully not us one thing last year taught us is it's never over til it's over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cpt_Hatstand Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 On 03/03/2024 at 08:58, pixelpaint64 said: iunderstoodthatreference.jpg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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