Owl In Black Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Starting @ 15 games to go we need to PPG of 0.5 more per game than at least 1 team (2 if only team is QPR) to takeover one of the of the teams above is in the table. We do that we stay up irrespective if any other team gets dragged in. Leicester was not a great start for us - and with 3 of the other 5 teams starting the 15 game run in with a win it's not looking a good start but onto Millwall on Saturday where a win would be a great start to the PPG chase down. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthefish2002 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Not sure I follow all that if I tell you the truth. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 If we average 1pt per game (i.e.total 15 PTS)and another team averages 0.5 per game (ie total 7 points) we survive. So this will show if we are on/off target to beat the drop. As it stands we are well off target albeit with only 1 game. Beat Millwall, and we will be 1.5PPG to their zero i.e. on target. We're in a mini league now and we need to perform better (to the tune of 0.5 PPG) than just one of the teams listed. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEnchanter Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Does it work? Fot example if Stoke get 4 points for the rest of the season (a ppg of 2.8) if we only get 0.5 more ppg than them (say 0.8ppg) it would still leave us behind them and relegated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 (edited) 34 minutes ago, TheEnchanter said: Does it work? Fot example if Stoke get 4 points for the rest of the season (a ppg of 2.8) if we only get 0.5 more ppg than them (say 0.8ppg) it would still leave us behind them and relegated. Totally lost here. And I am assuming there is a typo in here... If Stoke only got 4 points for the rest of the season. Total would 7 points over last 15 games. Their PPG over the 15 game period would be 0.466 = season total 39pts. We would then need 14 PTS to beat them by 1 pt OR 0.933 PPG (over the 15 game reporting period) PPG more per game 0.467 or rounded up - 0.5! Essentially, we have to overcome 7 points. To do this over 15 games our average PPG has to be more than 0.5. Edited February 15 by Warringtonowl 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
room0035 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We need 7 wins in the next 14, 47 points would have kept you up in 5 of the last 6 seasons. though we have 7 wins and 5 draws from 32 games so far so is a massive ask. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, room0035 said: We need 7 wins in the next 14, 47 points would have kept you up in 5 of the last 6 seasons. though we have 7 wins and 5 draws from 32 games so far so is a massive ask. So many ways to look at it. I think this seasons survival total is going to be one of the lowest. Lots of teams at the bottom still have each other to play. This tracker will just be able to project if we are on/off target to overcome those that are currently closest to us. It may become irrelevant if we all go on a run and drag those further up the chain into the mix, as unlikely as that may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
room0035 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Warringtonowl said: So many ways to look at it. I think this seasons survival total is going to be one of the lowest. Lots of teams at the bottom still have each other to play. This tracker will just be able to project if we are on/off target to overcome those that are currently closest to us. It may become irrelevant if we all go on a run and drag those further up the chain into the mix, as unlikely as that may be. The table will be the only tracker that matter above the relegation line doing well below the relegation line not very good. we need 3 points Saturday or all this is finished and we are relegated in all but name. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Just now, room0035 said: The table will be the only tracker that matter above the relegation line doing well below the relegation line not very good. we need 3 points Saturday or all this is finished and we are relegated in all but name. Spot on. I will probably sack this off if that happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulldog Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 In essence we need to win more games in the last 14 than we have in the first 32 Even taking Munoz and the first 11 games out of the equation we have gathered 23 points from the last 21 games, 1.1PPG Keep that form up and we finish on 42 points which is about where we'll be IMO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miffed Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The true metric is the league table so far this season, which suggests we aren’t good enough to stay up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Bulldog said: In essence we need to win more games in the last 14 than we have in the first 32 Even taking Munoz and the first 11 games out of the equation we have gathered 23 points from the last 21 games, 1.1PPG Keep that form up and we finish on 42 points which is about where we'll be IMO. Yup. This will give us a guide to see where we are at Vs other teams and projected survival / relegation. If we average 1.06 (that's 16 PTS) 42 PTS or we can average 1.13 (that's 17pts) 43 PTS Out of our last 14 games 7 are around us... And 1 other in bottom half. These are the games that will determine our fate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, Miffed said: The true metric is the league table so far this season, which suggests we aren’t good enough to stay up. Yep. True enough. But that includes a period under another manager. Out form under the new manager suggests we would be good enough but we may run out of time/games. We still have a chance, but we need to start putting points on the board. We've got a run of 4 games now where all teams are bottom half or in an around us. Win a couple of these and depending on results elsewhere things could look better, or worse of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanidaho Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 this is a good way to look at it. the teams a lot higher up the table have no bearing on us apart from their results against those around us. we learnt last season that a points total target can mean nothing in an extraordinary season. we need to get 7-9 points more than a couple of teams above us, so a ppg tracker is an interesting way to do it in conjunction with actual points on the board. in @Warringtonowl table there is a case to be made to add plymouth, blackburn and swansea as they are a bad run away from joining the crowd at the bottom. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owl In Black Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Just now, duncanidaho said: in @Warringtonowl table there is a case to be made to add plymouth, blackburn and swansea as they are a bad run away from joining the crowd at the bottom. Yes. I considered this. But we would need to average higher than the 0.5 more ppg than those sides. In reality my table could mean F all if as a collective the team's in my table reel them in and overtake them. Or of course, we just don't put enough points on the board in any case. As the Games are ticked off the projection of Survival or relegation will become more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grants Left Boot Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) To escape relegation we are going to have to go on a run of form that we haven't had all season. The 10 year average for safety is 44 points, so we need 19 points out of a possible 42, which on average is 1.36 ppg. Personally, I think the total is going to be nearer 47 points to survive which would need us to get 21 points from the remaining games at 1.5 ppg. I personally can't see it myself. The Xisco start didn't help, but also November with only 1 point from a possible 12. But then again, all it needs is Millwall to only win 2 more games all season and we are in with a chance. Edited February 15 by Grants Left Boot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Owl Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, room0035 said: We need 7 wins in the next 14, 47 points would have kept you up in 5 of the last 6 seasons. though we have 7 wins and 5 draws from 32 games so far so is a massive ask. That is a bloody grim stat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, Warringtonowl said: ...it may become irrelevant if we all go on a run and drag those further up the chain into the mix, as unlikely as that may be. Looking at our next 4 fixtures, I don't think that's unlikely at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsleyowl1996 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Going to need 6 wins from 14 I think to stop up . 6-3-5 - something like that. possible but difficult . playing likes of Millwall qpr Plymouth Swansea stoke Rotherham . the likes of Blackburn / Boro aren’t great sides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Crawshaw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, Warringtonowl said: Yup. This will give us a guide to see where we are at Vs other teams and projected survival / relegation. If we average 1.06 (that's 16 PTS) 42 PTS or we can average 1.13 (that's 17pts) 43 PTS Out of our last 14 games 7 are around us... And 1 other in bottom half. These are the games that will determine our fate. We could win all those 7 and I don't think it will be enough to keep us up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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