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The Graph Thread 2018/19 - Looking at the bigger picture


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if we have the kind of late run we had in CC's second season..we could scrape in. A point away at Derby dosnt take us out the race, a loss would have, thats how fine things stand and will stand for the rest of the season, we need to win all our home games and get 3 points away to lower table teams. Hope Bruce can change our luck in that department.

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1 hour ago, RyanSWFC said:

Update after Derby away:

 

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Last season after 36 games

6th Boro 58 pts

7th United 58 pts

74 points good enough for a sixth place finish.

 

16/17 season after 36 games

6th Wednesday 62 pts

7th Fulham 58 pts

76 points good enough for a sixth place finish

 

15/16 season after 36 games

6th Ipswich 58 pts

7th Wednesday 56 pts

70 points good enough for a sixth place finish

 

 

Today after 36 games

6th Derby 54 pts

7th Bristol C 53 pts

 

Looks likely to be a very low points total for 6th place this season. Could be as low as 67-68 points.

 

If so, we are MUCH closer to the PO line. Wins against Bolton and Blackburn and we would be touching the likely 18/19 PO line.


 

 
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3 hours ago, Holmowl said:

 

Last season after 36 games

6th Boro 58 pts

7th United 58 pts

74 points good enough for a sixth place finish.

 

16/17 season after 36 games

6th Wednesday 62 pts

7th Fulham 58 pts

76 points good enough for a sixth place finish

 

15/16 season after 36 games

6th Ipswich 58 pts

7th Wednesday 56 pts

70 points good enough for a sixth place finish

 

 

Today after 36 games

6th Derby 54 pts

7th Bristol C 53 pts

 

Looks likely to be a very low points total for 6th place this season. Could be as low as 67-68 points.

 

If so, we are MUCH closer to the PO line. Wins against Bolton and Blackburn and we would be touching the likely 18/19 PO line.


 

 
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Derby on 55 now, but you're right you'd expect the 6th placed team to be closer to 60 points at this stage. That suggests a relatively low PO line this year, barring a good run by one of the chasing pack.

We'd need 20+ points from the last 10, even considering a low bar. We've taken 17 from the last 10, so its not out of the question.

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Often this season the graph has given us some cause for optimism during the difficult moments. But after tonight's win I think it shows that we still have a lot of work to do. Only 3 points off the playoffs but the teams around us (and there are a lot of them) all have 1-2 games in hand. We'll probably need around 21 points from the possible 27 remaining, so 7ish wins out of our last 9. Bearing mind we have trips to Leeds and Norwich to come it is pretty unlikely. But not impossible.

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12 minutes ago, RyanSWFC said:

Often this season the graph has given us some cause for optimism during the difficult moments. But after tonight's win I think it shows that we still have a lot of work to do. Only 3 points off the playoffs but the teams around us (and there are a lot of them) all have 1-2 games in hand. We'll probably need around 21 points from the possible 27 remaining, so 7ish wins out of our last 9. Bearing mind we have trips to Leeds and Norwich to come it is pretty unlikely. But not impossible.

It is a difficult sell to say its unlikely when it's currently only 3 points. I think the play off target will be lower than normal because of the very fact we are so bunched. I think 70/1pts will make it.

 

The key is how we perform in the 3 April home games for me. 

 

Love this thread though Ryan and thanks for keeping it going

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5 times in the last decade 7th spot has been around the 68 - 71 pts margin. Be just our luck it's around the 14/15 season mark of 78 pts. Can't see that as this seasons marker though, think it'll be around the 12/13 season mark of 68 pts or less. Just need to plough on and better last seasons 9 game finish with 19 pts. That'll put us on a 71 pt finish or above. Not giving up just yet. 

 

COME ON WEDNESDAY !!! 

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1 hour ago, RyanSWFC said:

Often this season the graph has given us some cause for optimism during the difficult moments. But after tonight's win I think it shows that we still have a lot of work to do. Only 3 points off the playoffs but the teams around us (and there are a lot of them) all have 1-2 games in hand. We'll probably need around 21 points from the possible 27 remaining, so 7ish wins out of our last 9. Bearing mind we have trips to Leeds and Norwich to come it is pretty unlikely. But not impossible.

 

As others are saying Ryan it does look very likely that 69/70 is this year’s 6th place target.

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