areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 As we approach the final 4 games of the regular season, I thought it might be worth taking a look at how we've fared against the rest of the division, and what this might tell us about our chances in the final few matches. Don't overthink that last bit, though. So here's the league table divided into thirds, with our results against each team represented by the green (win), yellow (draw), and red (loss), and our total points, home points, away points, and points per game for all of the above shown towards the right. So what does it tell us? Well... Our most productive set of games has been those at Hillsborough against teams in the middle third of the table. Our worst set of results have come away against the bottom third, despite having no problem beating them at Hillsborough. Overall, we've done better against teams in the top third than those in the bottom third. Based on this, the odds of us beating a team from the top third at Hillsborough are better than our chances of beating any team in the league away from home. And if we use this as a (very) rough guide to help predict how things might go in our final four matches...we'll pick up another 6.99 points (let's call it 7, eh?) and will finish the season with 83 points. Happy days, eh!? 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthowl Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 I disagree with the second part of this bullet point… Our worst set of results have come away against the bottom third, despite having no problem beating them at Hillsborough. We’ve struggled against the bottom third even at home. 3 draws a last minute winner holding on for a 1-0 v Fleetwood a late second v Morecambe and a missed penalty saved us from a late panic v Donny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocksyuto Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Some of those draws/loses have really been an adjustment to this league if we don’t get promoted and kept the bulk of the squad we shouldn’t have a problem next season 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluesteel. Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Funnily enough when we made the playoffs in the championship we dropped a lot of points against the teams fighting relegation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CalmJimmers Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 If we beat Crewe and Fleetwood then I think we will be in the playoffs. If 82 points isn't enough then we will have gotten incredibly unlucky. It was 74 last year, 71 3 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted April 17, 2022 Author Share Posted April 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, Tamworthowl said: I disagree with the second part of this bullet point… Our worst set of results have come away against the bottom third, despite having no problem beating them at Hillsborough. We’ve struggled against the bottom third even at home. 3 draws a last minute winner holding on for a 1-0 v Fleetwood a late second v Morecambe and a missed penalty saved us from a late panic v Donny. Okay, then. Change it to, 'Our worst set of results have come away against the bottom third, despite having a good record against them them at Hillsborough', if that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GermanBird Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 58 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said: As we approach the final 4 games of the regular season, I thought it might be worth taking a look at how we've fared against the rest of the division, and what this might tell us about our chances in the final few matches. Don't overthink that last bit, though. So here's the league table divided into thirds, with our results against each team represented by the green (win), yellow (draw), and red (loss), and our total points, home points, away points, and points per game for all of the above shown towards the right. So what does it tell us? Well... Our most productive set of games has been those at Hillsborough against teams in the middle third of the table. Our worst set of results have come away against the bottom third, despite having no problem beating them at Hillsborough. Overall, we've done better against teams in the top third than those in the bottom third. Based on this, the odds of us beating a team from the top third at Hillsborough are better than our chances of beating any team in the league away from home. And if we use this as a (very) rough guide to help predict how things might go in our final four matches...we'll pick up another 6.99 points (let's call it 7, eh?) and will finish the season with 83 points. Happy days, eh!? Sounds good to me!!! 82-83 is what I also calculated with far more basic methods Your system looks much more reliable!! Thanks for the stats!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyowl Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Its the results against the bottom 3rd that have cost us top two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted April 17, 2022 Author Share Posted April 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, CalmJimmers said: If we beat Crewe and Fleetwood then I think we will be in the playoffs. If 82 points isn't enough then we will have gotten incredibly unlucky. It was 74 last year, 71 3 years ago. I reckon it could be touch and go whether that would be enough to finish above both Sunderland and Wycombe, but I can easily see Plymouth slipping below that mark unless they beat Sunderland tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 We’ve been steady enough by and large with our points gain throughout the season. We have stepped it up though in the last 15 matches or so. If we are still a league 1 side next season and we don’t see too much squad disruption and we can steer clear of injuries then we should be challenging for automatic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JemmoJemoJemmo Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 To truly understand how well we’ve done we’d need to compare against the other top teams. It would show we’d done very well against the other top teams compared to them - but incredibly poorly against the worst teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted April 17, 2022 Author Share Posted April 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, JemmoJemoJemmo said: To truly understand how well we’ve done we’d need to compare against the other top teams. It would show we’d done very well against the other top teams compared to them - but incredibly poorly against the worst teams. Go on, then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JemmoJemoJemmo Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said: Go on, then... Well it’s funny you should say that, but I was thinking of updating and correcting a few errors on this…. I’ll do it for the top 8 tomorrow Edited April 17, 2022 by JemmoJemoJemmo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted April 17, 2022 Author Share Posted April 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, JemmoJemoJemmo said: Well it’s funny you should say that, but I was thinking of updating and correcting a few errors on this…. I’ll do it for the top 8 tomorrow Cheers. It will be interesting to see how the other playoff-chasing teams have fared against the middle and lower third teams compared to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah Owl Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 I feel like I've just been given the third degree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JemmoJemoJemmo Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 15 hours ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said: Cheers. It will be interesting to see how the other playoff-chasing teams have fared against the middle and lower third teams compared to us. Oxford United 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JemmoJemoJemmo Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Sunderland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JemmoJemoJemmo Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Wycombe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JemmoJemoJemmo Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Plymouth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JemmoJemoJemmo Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Mk Dons y 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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