laws' legacy

[George]

...at this moment in time.

Are you Danny Wilson?

[DJMortimer]

Remember a few years ago when Alex Ferguson announced he would retire at the end of that season? Didn't Manchester United's results dip significantly following that and then picked up again when he changed his mind? Just a thought for those underestimating the possibilities inherent in the leaked document regarding player releases.

[djstatic]

Laws will be responsilbe for two teams going down this season if we can't halt the slide. FACT. Irvine had an excellent start but we have returned to the form & performances seen in Nov/Dec. You can do so much with a limited bunch but it is infuriating when you see performances like Newcastle at home & barnsley away. There does seem to be something seriously wrong with the players mentality as well as ability. There seems to be no fight in them & players like Spurr, Potter, Clarke & Soares add nothing to this side in terms of fight & passion. Laws brought in 3 of those 4 & overall, his signings excluding Grant have been a disaster. However, it must be remembered that the last time we spent more than 100k on a player was August 2007 so I do feel some sympathy for the man.

It just seems that whenever we did have some money to spend on fees/wages, it was wasted e.g Jeffers, Purse, Miller. Laws was always going to be out of his depth in the Prem. He is up against managers with far superior knowledge tactically. I feel sorry for Irvine because he has no money to spend & an inherited squad which is incapable (or can't be bothered) of following instructions. The team which brought us down in 2003 under Turner were poor players but at least they fought for the cause. I really believe that it is the opposite case which infuriates me. I hate people stealing a living & thats all I can see at the moment.

Edited March 1, 2010 by djstatic

[M Royds]

Peaks and dramtic/sudden troughs showing the heights never repeated.

[DJMortimer]

Peaks and dramtic/sudden troughs showing the heights never repeated.

...he says, studiously ignoring the most telling thing on the graph.

Zenowl finally has his successor as the Black Knight !

[i used to be sc_owl]

Peaks and dramtic/sudden troughs showing the heights never repeated.

That's sort of the point I was making MR.

Also, I take it DJM completely missed the part where I talked about a tipping point.

DJM - it doesn't make sense to lump the stats from each season together. Trust me - it really really doesn't. I'm doing my dissertation on this sort of thing and if I tried to present those sort of stats I'd get ripped to shreds!

[M Royds]

...he says, studiously ignoring the most telling thing on the graph.

Zenowl finally has his successor as the Black Knight !

Equally

DJM, I would stop being so Nepolionic!

[scram]

DJM - it doesn't make sense to lump the stats from each season together. Trust me - it really really doesn't. I'm doing my dissertation on this sort of thing and if I tried to present those sort of stats I'd get ripped to shreds!

It makes sense when trying to show trends over time

[i used to be sc_owl]

It makes sense when trying to show trends over time

Not really.

Breaking them down into how we performed season by season does.

[DJMortimer]

That's sort of the point I was making MR.

You think there's any manager, ever, that would have some sort of consistent flatline of form? What next? Did we score as many goals in the first ten minutes as the last ten minutes? Did we have the same average possession time in October as we did in March? Did we have as many bookings on Tuesdays as we did on Wednesday's?

This is not a dissertation on the origins of the universe broken down into a million contributory factors, but a simple analysis of the trend in our results. It comprehensively demonstrates (unless you are too embarrassed and/or stupid to admit your imagination has been playing tricks on you) that there simply was no gradual decline as the manager's incompetence dawned on the players. It simply isn't there, no matter how much you thrash around like a fish on a riverbank desperately trying to get back into the water.

As you are presumably much better qualified than anyone else to present a mathematical analysis demonstrating your theory, you are quite welcome to do so. But I'm afraid for the vast majority of us, the plain and simple truth is beyond obvious. Something came to a head very suddenly, something that is not apparent from the two years preceding it, and something that apparently has still not gone away. All that is not clear is the cause or causes of it. A slow (no less than two and a half years no less) dawning of the manager's idiocy is stretching credibility way beyond breaking point. For the most part, these very same players proved they were capable of decent results, and on a relentlessly consistent basis.

Put the respective cases to an unbiased audience and I'm confident which one would get the overwhelming majority of support.

[mark77]

You think there's any manager, ever, that would have some sort of consistent flatline of form? What next? Did we score as many goals in the first ten minutes as the last ten minutes? Did we have the same average possession time in October as we did in March? Did we have as many bookings on Tuesdays as we did on Wednesday's?

This is not a dissertation on the origins of the universe broken down into a million contributory factors, but a simple analysis of the trend in our results. It comprehensively demonstrates (unless you are too embarrassed and/or stupid to admit your imagination has been playing tricks on you) that there simply was no gradual decline as the manager's incompetence dawned on the players. It simply isn't there, no matter how much you thrash around like a fish on a riverbank desperately trying to get back into the water.

As you are presumably much better qualified than anyone else to present a mathematical analysis demonstrating your theory, you are quite welcome to do so. But I'm afraid for the vast majority of us, the plain and simple truth is beyond obvious. Something came to a head very suddenly, something that is not apparent from the two years preceding it, and something that apparently has still not gone away. All that is not clear is the cause or causes of it. A slow (no less than two and a half years no less) dawning of the manager's idiocy is stretching credibility way beyond breaking point. For the most part, these very same players proved they were capable of decent results, and on a relentlessly consistent basis.

Put the respective cases to an unbiased audience and I'm confident which one would get the overwhelming majority of support.

Erm the guy nearly took us down the season before last (after losing 6 on the bounce to start with) hardly decent results on a consistent basis that season!!!

The reason for the sudden decline this season was that from Forest onwards teams worked out how to play us (credit to Billy Davis). Apart from maybe 45 minutes against Preston we've not come close to producing the type of football we saw against Barnsley, Newcastle, Sflaphorpe and Plymouth. We never adapted our style and we became one dimentional. Teams find it too easy to play against us, we dont cause them enough problems when we have the ball.

Pro Zone became the holy grail for Laws over the summer and our style of play, shape, everything was based on that. It was all about getting plenty of balls into the box asap and as many shots on goal as possible because thats what Pro Zone said got you Promoted. In reality we became too open and lost shape quickly when we didnt have the ball. Its no coincidence that the first thing Irvine mentioned when coming into the club was working on the shape of the team and making us hard to beat (clearly still plenty of work to do). Unfortunately we look no different when we have the ball at the moment. Take the last home game, we spent 90 minutes getting the ball forward as quick as possible despite the Ipswich centre halves lapping it up all day, we had no width, no plan b, nothing.

Laws has left us an unbalanced squad with hardly any width, no cover at left back (Nolan i thought had solved this but Irvine played him right back!) and no natural goalscorer.

He'll take Burnley down, and may take us down with the damage done.

[HullOwlPhil]

Are we, the fans, partly to blame for this? Perhaps the players gave up wanting to play for us the moment we booed one of our own, Richard Wood, onto the pitch.

However justified we might have felt with our anger towards him, it makes you wonder how the attitude of the players might have changed after the QPR match.

I’m not saying that that is the case, but everything seems to point to the way the situation was dealt with from the top down.

[i used to be sc_owl]

You think there's any manager, ever, that would have some sort of consistent flatline of form? What next? Did we score as many goals in the first ten minutes as the last ten minutes? Did we have the same average possession time in October as we did in March? Did we have as many bookings on Tuesdays as we did on Wednesday's?

This is not a dissertation on the origins of the universe broken down into a million contributory factors, but a simple analysis of the trend in our results. It comprehensively demonstrates (unless you are too embarrassed and/or stupid to admit your imagination has been playing tricks on you) that there simply was no gradual decline as the manager's incompetence dawned on the players. It simply isn't there, no matter how much you thrash around like a fish on a riverbank desperately trying to get back into the water.

As you are presumably much better qualified than anyone else to present a mathematical analysis demonstrating your theory, you are quite welcome to do so. But I'm afraid for the vast majority of us, the plain and simple truth is beyond obvious. Something came to a head very suddenly, something that is not apparent from the two years preceding it, and something that apparently has still not gone away. All that is not clear is the cause or causes of it. A slow (no less than two and a half years no less) dawning of the manager's idiocy is stretching credibility way beyond breaking point. For the most part, these very same players proved they were capable of decent results, and on a relentlessly consistent basis.

Put the respective cases to an unbiased audience and I'm confident which one would get the overwhelming majority of support.

I mentioned in my first lengthy reply to this thread the idea that a tipping point had been reached.

Anyways, I'm going to go and bang my head against a brick wall.

2006/07 - 1.73 points per game

2007/08 - 1.19

2008/09 - 1.33

2009/10 - 0.86

Graph it out and you get a gradual decline with a partial incline in part part, which is what I've been saying.

[Weshallovercome]

Is your head on upside down or something?

Remember that analysis I did of ten games at a time for the last 100 games? I've converted it into a graph (points earned in each 10 game spell on the vertical column). Observe the relative consistency and see if your myopic eyes will allow you to see the unprecedented and sudden slump I was referring to?

[DJMortimer]

Erm the guy nearly took us down the season before last (after losing 6 on the bounce to start with) hardly decent results on a consistent basis that season!!!

The reason for the sudden decline this season was that from Forest onwards teams worked out how to play us (credit to Billy Davis). Apart from maybe 45 minutes against Preston we've not come close to producing the type of football we saw against Barnsley, Newcastle, Sflaphorpe and Plymouth. We never adapted our style and we became one dimentional. Teams find it too easy to play against us, we dont cause them enough problems when we have the ball.

Pro Zone became the holy grail for Laws over the summer and our style of play, shape, everything was based on that. It was all about getting plenty of balls into the box asap and as many shots on goal as possible because thats what Pro Zone said got you Promoted. In reality we became too open and lost shape quickly when we didnt have the ball. Its no coincidence that the first thing Irvine mentioned when coming into the club was working on the shape of the team and making us hard to beat (clearly still plenty of work to do). Unfortunately we look no different when we have the ball at the moment. Take the last home game, we spent 90 minutes getting the ball forward as quick as possible despite the Ipswich centre halves lapping it up all day, we had no width, no plan b, nothing.

Laws has left us an unbalanced squad with hardly any width, no cover at left back (Nolan i thought had solved this but Irvine played him right back!) and no natural goalscorer.

He'll take Burnley down, and may take us down with the damage done.

As I've tried to say (but been largely ignored), I'm not denying mistakes and I'm not advocating him as a genius. I'm simply trying to demonstrate that something abrupt and unprecedented occurred towards the end of last year that has subverted what went before it to an alarming degree. Until 'i used to be sc owl' shows otherwise, the statistics appear to back this up to all but the most biased or insane.

But if you are correct about the degree of Laws' mismanagement, why have our last three performances, in our most important games of the season so far, off the back of a sudden improvement in results, been so thoroughly abject? Surely the root cause has largely been eradicated? Unless of course you want to go even further out on a limb and suggest the players were hypno-programmed into uselessness or something?

The degree of hair-splitting whilst trying to prove that water is not wet is getting ridiculous. If you want to dwell on 2007/8 (which in itself is much less relevant than more recent periods when we are looking at a sudden slump starting three months ago) it could be argued that following a poor start we actually performed not too far below the level which was Laws' average for much of his tenure. The graph of our form for the last two years shows peaks and troughs (gasps of astonishment from the idiots expecting a perfectly straight line) but overall there is general consistency and a plummet right at the end. It's not about getting 1.06 points or whatever from every single game relentlessly throughout his spell at the club. It's about how you explain this sudden turnaround? Bad tactics of the previous three years? A few bad signings? A new piece of software? Yeah right.

[Guest Briscoe Inferno]

The perfect storm theory is convenient enough for me.

and I will throw this one into the pot, which can't have helped rational thought if it continued for any length of time...

Don't forget that Brian became a father again in May and I know what effect a 5-6 month old can have on your sleep patterns.

[DJMortimer]

I mentioned in my first lengthy reply to this thread the idea that a tipping point had been reached.

Anyways, I'm going to go and bang my head against a brick wall.

2006/07 - 1.73 points per game

2007/08 - 1.19

2008/09 - 1.33

2009/10 - 0.86

Graph it out and you get a gradual decline with a partial incline in part part, which is what I've been saying.

Are you f*cking kidding me?

My statistics aren't detailed or specific enough and that's your all-encompassing response to them?

I've suggested that something sudden occurred around the end of October. This coincides with the Richard Wood row and possibly the first hints that players in the final year of their contract would be released en masse at the end of the season. Maybe there were some other factors we are currently unaware of that affected squad harmony too? If we draw a line after the win over Coventry (ie. right before the bad run that got Laws the sack) let me amend one of your statistics :

2009/10 - 1.33.

Well I bloody never. How about that? Your elusive gradual decline disappears in a puff of embarrassment and relentless logic.

Good luck with that dissertation. But what are you doing for the rest of the day?

[M Royds]

October was probably Laws's perfect storm culminating in his poor signing, poor form, poor tactics, pool planning, poor use of scarce resources, poor scouting, poor man mangement, poor sound-bites etc, all coming to fruition at once.

It's the economy table position, stupid!

I've suggested that something sudden occurred around the end of October. This coincides with the Richard Wood row and possibly the first hints that players in the final year of their contract would be released en masse at the end of the season. Maybe there were some other factors we are currently unaware of that affected squad harmony too?

2009/10 - 1.33.

As I said, the penny is rolling towards the inevitable drop!

[i used to be sc_owl]

Are you f*cking kidding me?

My statistics aren't detailed or specific enough and that's your all-encompassing response to them?

I've suggested that something sudden occurred around the end of October. This coincides with the Richard Wood row and possibly the first hints that players in the final year of their contract would be released en masse at the end of the season. Maybe there were some other factors we are currently unaware of that affected squad harmony too? If we draw a line after the win over Coventry (ie. right before the bad run that got Laws the sack) let me amend one of your statistics :

2009/10 - 1.33.

Well I bloody never. How about that? Your elusive gradual decline disappears in a puff of embarrassment and relentless logic.

Good luck with that dissertation. But what are you doing for the rest of the day?

Erm... Did I not mention a gradual decline with a partial upturn? The bigger picture was a decline, but there was a small upturn in part of the bigger picture. How are you not grasping that?

As for my dissertation - noshit! It's a lot more complicated that the figures I plucked from the web while posting this from work.

What am I doing for the rest of the day? Work, then going over the info I've just had back from some of the football clubs I'm doing my research with.

What are you doing?

EDIT - so from your own opinions you are drawing a line where it suits your argument the best... nice work there...

Edited March 1, 2010 by i used to be sc_owl

[mark77]

As I've tried to say (but been largely ignored), I'm not denying mistakes and I'm not advocating him as a genius. I'm simply trying to demonstrate that something abrupt and unprecedented occurred towards the end of last year that has subverted what went before it to an alarming degree. Until 'i used to be sc owl' shows otherwise, the statistics appear to back this up to all but the most biased or insane.

But if you are correct about the degree of Laws' mismanagement, why have our last three performances, in our most important games of the season so far, off the back of a sudden improvement in results, been so thoroughly abject? Surely the root cause has largely been eradicated? Unless of course you want to go even further out on a limb and suggest the players were hypno-programmed into uselessness or something?

The degree of hair-splitting whilst trying to prove that water is not wet is getting ridiculous. If you want to dwell on 2007/8 (which in itself is much less relevant than more recent periods when we are looking at a sudden slump starting three months ago) it could be argued that following a poor start we actually performed not too far below the level which was Laws' average for much of his tenure. The graph of our form for the last two years shows peaks and troughs (gasps of astonishment from the idiots expecting a perfectly straight line) but overall there is general consistency and a plummet right at the end. It's not about getting 1.06 points or whatever from every single game relentlessly throughout his spell at the club. It's about how you explain this sudden turnaround? Bad tactics of the previous three years? A few bad signings? A new piece of software? Yeah right.

Its not sudden for me though with Laws, in another thread i mentioned Xmas 06 where after 3 great results over the holiday period he totally changed a winning, and confident, team for the home game against struggling Hull on New Years day. He dropped the likes of Wayne Andrews and Steve MacLean who had scored in the previous games. We lost that home game (a win would have left us 6th and in the Promotion race). Both players were on the pitch after 55 minutes but the game was lost (he obviously realised his error). We didnt win again until nearly March by which time we were too far behind the top 6. I lost confidence in the guy that day and no doubt some of the players would have (results showed this).

What annoyed me was he repeated this throughout his reign here, i think of Barnsley away last season after a few good results he decided because it was 2 days after a WIN against Sheff Utd another derby was too much for the players!!! Well it didnt work, the team was allover the place, we lost, and went on poor run!!

Stuff like that i remember.