Guest Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Following a number of threads referencing various players' contributions to our results, I decided to apply a little "science" (ish) to see what our most effective XI might look like according to a bit of statistical analysis (cast a glance at the attached spreadsheet before reading any further)... Comparing straight wins, draws and losses would be the most obvious method, but I think the opposition comes into play, personally - i.e. a draw against Derby is more of an achievement than against Millwall, beating Blackpool isn't the same as beating Boro...etc. Starting with a list of our league results, I've sorted them from what I see as best to worst considering how we'd expect to have performed against the respective opposition. I paired the results up to help smooth out a bit of the subjectivity involved, then applied a plus or minus score, starting from the middle (draw against Charlton) and working out towards the win against Boro and the 4-0 defeat against Fulham. I then added the players to the opposite axis and looked at which games they started. The associated "points" were then accumulated to give a weighted result. If we had any ever-present players, they'd score 0, having featured in all good, bad and indifferent games. So any with a positive score will have played in more successful games than unsuccessful, and vice versa. I've also shown a more direct/simple average goals scored and average goals conceded, set against the average for the team, to provide a bit of additional info. This isn't weighted according the opposition though. Westwood, Lees and Palmer have played almost every game. So their stats are more or less that of the club as a whole. Bus, Madine, Baker, Hope, Taylor-Fletcher, Buxton & Vermijl have only started one or two games, so their stats don't mean a great deal either. So I've focused on the players that have been shuffled around, whether that's through injuries and/or suspensions or through Gray's decision making. Loovens (+7) We've had some bad results since his suspension and injury. So he has the positive score that you'd expect. As he's unavailable for selection anyway, I'll leave it there. Zayatte (-7) Has the opposite score to Loovens, which makes sense. I'm not sure we can draw many more conclusions than that though really. Dielna (+17) Comes out well. Better than I expected actually. I've split his games into left and centre to see if it tells us anything. It looks like he ought to be our first choice left back to me. Mattock (-1) It's marginal, particularly considering the number of games he's played; but we concede more, score less, and achieve slightly worse results when he plays. Worth giving Dielna a run then? Helan at LB (-10) I've been selecting him at LB in the "team for..." threads for some time now. Perhaps I've been blinded by a desire to have as many attacking players on the pitch as possible after being goal starved all season? Maguire (+13) Perhaps surprisingly to some, Maguire is arguably our most effective midfielder. Our results suffer when he's not in the team. The Millwall game on Tuesday night was actually our first positive result without him. I'd personally much rather see him moved up front for the last 20-25 mins of each game, rather than being dragged off the pitch every time. Semedo (+9) He's magic, tha knows! As many have noted, despite being frustratingly slow when turning defence into attack at times, his performances this season have been fantastic. He's a crucial part of the team as it stands, which is not something that I expected to be saying. Credit where it's due! Drenthe (+6) If he was still around, he'd be a shoe in, but he's not, so I'll leave it there. McGugan (+1) We've both scored more and conceded more when he's been in the team. I'm happy with that to be honest. Plus, his current loan spell has coincided with Loovens' absence, so that could have something to do with it?! Helan as a winger (+1) We have marginally better results when he plays on the wing, but we actually score less. Perhaps that's a reflection of his end product? And maybe his pace can be best used towards the end of games when defenders' legs are tiring? Maghoma (-3) Not the best results, but both the scored and conceded numbers are on the right side of the team's overall average. Plus he's provided the most assists by some distance. So he gets the nod over Helan by my reckoning. Lee (-5) This is a tricky one, because I think his early post-injury form is counting against him. He was involved in our worst few results of the season at that time. More recently his numbers look much better. So based on current form he'd probably make the team really. Coke (-6) Not in the picture, so not worthy of much discussion really. Hutchinson (-15) One of my favourite players, so it's disappointing to report his poor stats. Various posters have been making the point that he's not having as positive an effect on the game as us Hutch-fans seem to think. So maybe I have to accept that I'm clinging to a false hope that he can replicate some of what he showed last season? We see it in glimpses, but is he just too much of a loose cannon? Nuhiu (+34) The figures speak for themselves. He featured in all of our top 10 results, and was notably absent for 5 out of our 7 worst. First name on the team sheet if we want to be successful. Maybe second, after Westwood anyway! Keane (-4) We certainly seem to score more when he plays, which has to be a good thing for a forward to bring to the party. We've not necessarily had all good results in that time though, because we've also conceded too many. May (-4) We score fewer goals with him on the pitch. Partly because he doesn't offer enough to our attacking play in general, and partly because he's our most wasteful player in front of goal. He showed on Tuesday that he can nick something against lesser opposition when the game opens up towards the end. It makes sense to use him selectively off the bench for the rest of this season (assuming everyone else stays fit), and hopefully he can bag a few and build on that for next season. In conclusion, the best available XI, as far as I can tell is... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Westwood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Palmer . . . . Lees . . . . . Zayatte . . . . . . . . . . Dielna Maguire . . Semedo . . McGugan . . Maghoma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nuhiu . . . . . . Keane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Helan & May to be used as super subs! There's probably an argument to say that Lee ought to be involved, based on more recent form. Having him in there might help to free McGugan up too, because the team above does mean that he has more defensive responsibilities than I'd personally like to see. Maybe him in the middle with Semedo, with Keane making way, and McGugan playing the #10 role in behind Attey would make some sense. Having 3 in the middle against a strong Boro side would probably make sense anyway. UTO! Surely all this is only valid when we have played every team twice through a season, also you have not (as far as i can see) taking into account the form of the opposition. The fact that you have rated each game on your opinion of how we should have done agains them undermines all the good work put into this. Also you have a points based sytem only based on Goals for and Against, but lets say for example Semedo, He is never going to score loads, and maybe cannot have affected the majority of the goals conceded, thus this stat for him is useless. A fair more realavent stat for Semedo (again this is just and example) is tackles won and lost, interceptions and forward passes that let to chances. Thats my thought anyway, Other than that i think this is a decent peice of work and definately worth revisiting at the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smhouston Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Good work, however, I'd disagree with your weightings assuming -8 means a very bad result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shandypants Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The thread makes me want to cry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The fact that you have rated each game on your opinion of how we should have done agains them undermines all the good work put into this. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Handball_!! Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The fact that we are scientifically a better team with Nhui in it depresses the hell out of me to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dukeries Owl Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Statistically more people get knocked down on zebra crossings than any other part of the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Fedor Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The posters saying nice work George are actually worse than George. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sultan_Pepper Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 "He featured in all of our top 10 results, and was notably absent for 5 out of our 7 worst" - #DareToNuhiu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamwestsleftear Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 INJECT MY FACE WITH YOUR STATS,,,, STATS ARE HOURS OF FUN WELL DONE GEORGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ay up leftear Here, have a neg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogerwyldesmullet Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I am convinced. Send it to 50 shades immediately. If he doesn't agree, let him leave with immediate and send it to the one and only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owls101 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 When you say science, you actually mean something that's totally random that you've just made up. Cool though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamwestsleftear Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ay up leftear Here, have a neg BE KINDER TO OUR PLAYERS AND NO ONE NEEDS TO GET HURT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 BE KINDER TO OUR PLAYERS AND NO ONE NEEDS TO GET HURT Who am I not being kind to mr ear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Fedor Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 INJECT MY FACE WITH YOUR STATS,,,, STATS ARE HOURS OF FUN WELL DONE GEORGE Self praise is no praise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Sorry Fedor, I accidentally negged you when I went to look who'd negged you. Not that I could've guessed. I think I removed it, but can't tell?!?! I is no good on these computermibobs?! Are you and Ian the same person? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronio Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I like threads that have plenty of stats in them. Sometimes though they don't tell you the complete story. Take the stats with Coke and Lee. Very similar, not much difference between them. But Looking at the picture as a whole, I would say Lee has had a far bigger impact than Coke. Coke gets -6 and Kieran Lee gets -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Individual stats almost never tell the full story. In this case, I think Lee's been pulled down dramatically by him being involved in a particularly bad spell when he first came back from injury. He struggled to find form, which was probably while he gained fitness. I personally think they're a point of interest and can serve to stimulate discussion, but that's about it really. I certainly don't intend to "prove" anything, as others have suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WOLS Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I like the effort you have put in to this to generate statistics. It's never going to be scientific but its interesting and a good way to generate debate as we can see. I think you should have Helan in the team at left wing though. According to your system he gets +1 when Maghoma gets -3 and you need to stick to your own rules. Especially because Maghoma is boosted by one good recent game! Most of the season Maghoma has been a waste of space, and Helan has posed an attacking threat (although admittedly you have to be prepared to see him fall over his own shadow a few times). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yes, I take you're point on Helan Vs Maghoma. I went that way because of the goals scored and conceded numbers really; but was admittedly swayed by him leading the way with assists, which is obviously something that sits outside of the numbers I presented. It could work the other way around, with Maghoma offering an option off the bench, to be fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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