Geörge Whitebread Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 (edited) Following a number of threads referencing various players' contributions to our results, I decided to apply a little "science" (ish) to see what our most effective XI might look like according to a bit of statistical analysis (cast a glance at the attached spreadsheet before reading any further)... Comparing straight wins, draws and losses would be the most obvious method, but I think the opposition comes into play, personally - i.e. a draw against Derby is more of an achievement than against Millwall, beating Blackpool isn't the same as beating Boro...etc. Starting with a list of our league results, I've sorted them from what I see as best to worst considering how we'd expect to have performed against the respective opposition. I paired the results up to help smooth out a bit of the subjectivity involved, then applied a plus or minus score, starting from the middle (draw against Charlton) and working out towards the win against Boro and the 4-0 defeat against Fulham. I then added the players to the opposite axis and looked at which games they started. The associated "points" were then accumulated to give a weighted result. If we had any ever-present players, they'd score 0, having featured in all good, bad and indifferent games. So any with a positive score will have played in more successful games than unsuccessful, and vice versa. I've also shown a more direct/simple average goals scored and average goals conceded, set against the average for the team, to provide a bit of additional info. This isn't weighted according the opposition though. Westwood, Lees and Palmer have played almost every game. So their stats are more or less that of the club as a whole. Bus, Madine, Baker, Hope, Taylor-Fletcher, Buxton & Vermijl have only started one or two games, so their stats don't mean a great deal either. So I've focused on the players that have been shuffled around, whether that's through injuries and/or suspensions or through Gray's decision making. Loovens (+7) We've had some bad results since his suspension and injury. So he has the positive score that you'd expect. As he's unavailable for selection anyway, I'll leave it there. Zayatte (-7) Has the opposite score to Loovens, which makes sense. I'm not sure we can draw many more conclusions than that though really. Dielna (+17) Comes out well. Better than I expected actually. I've split his games into left and centre to see if it tells us anything. It looks like he ought to be our first choice left back to me. Mattock (-1) It's marginal, particularly considering the number of games he's played; but we concede more, score less, and achieve slightly worse results when he plays. Worth giving Dielna a run then? Helan at LB (-10) I've been selecting him at LB in the "team for..." threads for some time now. Perhaps I've been blinded by a desire to have as many attacking players on the pitch as possible after being goal starved all season? Maguire (+13) Perhaps surprisingly to some, Maguire is arguably our most effective midfielder. Our results suffer when he's not in the team. The Millwall game on Tuesday night was actually our first positive result without him. I'd personally much rather see him moved up front for the last 20-25 mins of each game, rather than being dragged off the pitch every time. Semedo (+9) He's magic, tha knows! As many have noted, despite being frustratingly slow when turning defence into attack at times, his performances this season have been fantastic. He's a crucial part of the team as it stands, which is not something that I expected to be saying. Credit where it's due! Drenthe (+6) If he was still around, he'd be a shoe in, but he's not, so I'll leave it there. McGugan (+1) We've both scored more and conceded more when he's been in the team. I'm happy with that to be honest. Plus, his current loan spell has coincided with Loovens' absence, so that could have something to do with it?! Helan as a winger (+1) We have marginally better results when he plays on the wing, but we actually score less. Perhaps that's a reflection of his end product? And maybe his pace can be best used towards the end of games when defenders' legs are tiring? Maghoma (-3) Not the best results, but both the scored and conceded numbers are on the right side of the team's overall average. Plus he's provided the most assists by some distance. So he gets the nod over Helan by my reckoning. Lee (-5) This is a tricky one, because I think his early post-injury form is counting against him. He was involved in our worst few results of the season at that time. More recently his numbers look much better. So based on current form he'd probably make the team really. Coke (-6) Not in the picture, so not worthy of much discussion really. Hutchinson (-15) One of my favourite players, so it's disappointing to report his poor stats. Various posters have been making the point that he's not having as positive an effect on the game as us Hutch-fans seem to think. So maybe I have to accept that I'm clinging to a false hope that he can replicate some of what he showed last season? We see it in glimpses, but is he just too much of a loose cannon? Nuhiu (+34) The figures speak for themselves. He featured in all of our top 10 results, and was notably absent for 5 out of our 7 worst. First name on the team sheet if we want to be successful. Maybe second, after Westwood anyway! Keane (-4) We certainly seem to score more when he plays, which has to be a good thing for a forward to bring to the party. We've not necessarily had all good results in that time though, because we've also conceded too many. May (-4) We score fewer goals with him on the pitch. Partly because he doesn't offer enough to our attacking play in general, and partly because he's our most wasteful player in front of goal. He showed on Tuesday that he can nick something against lesser opposition when the game opens up towards the end. It makes sense to use him selectively off the bench for the rest of this season (assuming everyone else stays fit), and hopefully he can bag a few and build on that for next season. In conclusion, the best available XI, as far as I can tell is... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Westwood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Palmer . . . . Lees . . . . . Zayatte . . . . . . . . . . Dielna Maguire . . Semedo . . McGugan . . Maghoma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nuhiu . . . . . . Keane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Helan & May to be used as super subs! There's probably an argument to say that Lee ought to be involved, based on more recent form. Having him in there might help to free McGugan up too, because the team above does mean that he has more defensive responsibilities than I'd personally like to see. Maybe him in the middle with Semedo, with Keane making way, and McGugan playing the #10 role in behind Attey would make some sense. Having 3 in the middle against a strong Boro side would probably make sense anyway. UTO! Edited February 27, 2015 by George Whitebread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigger Guns Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 You've got too much time. I'd have picked that team (lee in for Maguire) for the weekend anyway, which is an obvious move as you say he's in form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Lee could also replace Maghoma in that team too. While Maghoma did well on Tuesday, that was against lesser opposition in a more open game, by all accounts (I didn't go, so I don't know for sure). He doesn't offer enough defensively though. So if we are going with 2 up top, perhaps it would be a bit cavalier to run with both Maguire and Maghoma against our next opponents. So... <set back 5> Lee - Semedo - McGugan - Mag-uire/homa - - - - Nuhiu - - - - Keane - - - - - - - - or - - - - - - Lee - Semedo - - - - - - - Maguire - McGugan - Maghoma - - - - - - - - Nuhiu I'm hoping for the latter I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramone Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I like George and I like his stats... I like stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 (edited) Stevie May has won us more points than anyone else. Fact. The length you go to to discredit the lad is flipping pathetic George. Edited February 27, 2015 by IstillhateSteveBould Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 (edited) Stevie May has won us more points than anyone else. Fact. The length you go to to discredit the lad is flipping pathetic George. It's far from a fact. What a ridiculous statement. Stevie May isn't the focus of the thread anyway. No more than it being about Giles Coke or Royston Drenthe. In fact, I'd be delighted if this thread didn't mention him, or Attey for that matter, from this point forward. The latter being more effective is a given. So no need to debate that further. The more salient points, I think, are about Dielna, Helan, Hutchinson, Lee & Maguire. I like George and I like his stats... I like stats Cheers. Much appreciated :) Edited February 27, 2015 by George Whitebread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ka58 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I enjoyed reading that. Well done mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's not ridiculous at all. He's our top league scorer. Fact. When he scores, we win. Fact. He's won us more points than anyone else. Fact. Yet he's not in our most effective 11? What planet are you on? We're more effective with Keane in the side? No. Before the millwall game, which he failed to score in, we hadn't won a game with Keane in the side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
themaskedowl Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 That's very interesting George. Thanks for sharing (honestly). One question: based on stats Loovens would go in at Centre Half but, I'm assuming you've omitted him due to current injury? Means the team as played away at Miwaw was pretty much spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torryowl Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 does the striker( who it stands to reason is going to score the most goals) win more games than the keeper who makes 4 or 5 brilliant saves ?.........does the striker who misses chance after chance lose us more games than the brilliant keeper who still lets in 2 or 3 goals? ......impossible to answer ,i´d just say you win as team you lose as a team and leave it at that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 does the striker( who it stands to reason is going to score the most goals) win more games than the keeper who makes 4 or 5 brilliant saves ?.........does the striker who misses chance after chance lose us more games than the brilliant keeper who still lets in 2 or 3 goals? ......impossible to answer ,i´d just say you win as team you lose as a team and leave it at that . George wants to talk about facts and stats, but only certain ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 F*ck me IshSB, it took me ages that. I thought I'd been pretty thorough. How many stats do you want?!?!? As I say, we've done the May V Nuhiu thibg to death. We're not going to agree. Based on results with certain players in the team, that is the most effective XI. The idea that whoever gets the last touch when we score is the only player that has "Won" the points is ridiculous frankly. The whole team is involved in the result. Obviously! As I say, this isn't exclusively about May. What do you make of Hutchinson's stats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 That's very interesting George. Thanks for sharing (honestly). One question: based on stats Loovens would go in at Centre Half but, I'm assuming you've omitted him due to current injury? Means the team as played away at Miwaw was pretty much spot on. Yes, Loovens would definitely be in there; but he's unavailable. So I left him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torryowl Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 George wants to talk about facts and stats, but only certain ones.stats mean feck all , you look at drenthe´s stats 1 goal no assists but just about everyone was gutted when he left ......we´ve probably had more clean sheets with mattock in the side than not but not many seem to want him in the team . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meggoisgod Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 We are a better side with Nuhiu in it....sad but true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m77owl Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Read "THE NUMBERS GAME" More and more football stats. score 1 goal per game to guarantee not being relegated. Forget super strikers they are too expensive for their effectiveness. For best improvement....look at your weakest player.....improve that position is far more effective and much cheaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 stats mean feck all . They can mean feck all. They can mean something. It depends what your agenda is and how you want to manipulate them. George I don't mind you at all, but you don't like the fact that fedor and Ian rate May higher than Nuhiu, so you go to any length to "prove" them, and probably me wrong. So now you don't credit the match winner with winning us a game, but when Nuhiu happens to play in a game we win, he's the reason for it? Nonsense mate. There's so many holes in your post I don't even know where to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cersei Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Excellent work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwissOwl8200 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nice work George I love a good spreadsheet. Next can you do a correlation to show how the band playing certain tunes affects our home performances? I've always liked Nuhiu, funny that your analysis shows such a positive contribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Next can you do a correlation to show how the band playing certain tunes affects our home performances? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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