Dronfield Blue Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I like stats. The stats that show the league table at the end of the season never lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 (edited) I like stats. The stats that show the league table at the end of the season never lie. The only ones that really matter Edited February 27, 2015 by IstillhateSteveBould Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
themaskedowl Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Statistically more people get knocked down on zebra crossings than any other part of the road.By the flipping zebras I shouldn't wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westfield Owl Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Great OP. Well worth a read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 A good effort but it would have been far better if you hadn't let your opinion to be a factor. The weighting should have been based on their league position and result. Not really sure if I like the weighting anyway, one result can have too much of a bearing on the overall picture. Not quite sure how you used stats to show Keane should be in our first XI when statistically his inclusion has coincided with our worst spell of the season. Good effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 A good effort but it would have been far better if you hadn't let your opinion to be a factor. The weighting should have been based on their league position and result. Not really sure if I like the weighting anyway, one result can have too much of a bearing on the overall picture. Not quite sure how you used stats to show Keane should be in our first XI when statistically his inclusion has coincided with our worst spell of the season. Good effort. I didn't let my opinion be a factor really. Well no more than is unavoidable when choosing which games are more or less difficult. I pretty much have just gone with league position and result. I'm open to suggestions if you, or anyone else, thinks any particular games are in the wrong order. I'll have another bash at the weightings after I've updated it with today's victory. Again, all suggestions welcome. As I've said, I'm not trying to prove anything. I'm happy to do this by democracy. Will Keane's inclusion has coincided woth our highest scoring period, and we had a worse period earlier in the season. That said, IshSB has made a good case for Stevie to be included, and obviously you think the same. So I'm happy to make that swap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 As I've said, I'm not trying to prove anything. I'm happy to do this by democracy. Will Keane's inclusion has coincided woth our highest scoring period, and we had a worse period earlier in the season. That said, IshSB has made a good case for Stevie to be included, and obviously you think the same. So I'm happy to make that swap. I'll let you know after the match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 (edited) Post-Boro stats below: Taking a few comments on board, I've changed the workings a bit. As with before, I'm happy to consider alternatives if they're deemed to be useful/ interesting/ fair. I'm not aiming to "prove" anything with this. I simply want to show how various results coincide with players' inclusion in the team. Draw your own conclusions. The aim is to end up with a "team of the season" when the last ball is kicked. The changes are as follows... Being involved in the worst few results was deemed to be having too harsh an effect. So I've smoothed this out by making the overall score a blend of the points earned (regardless of opposition), goals scored, goals conceded, and a weighting based on the "difficulty" of the fixture. The difficulty order was potentially too subjective, despite attempting to be as unbiased as I could be, so I've set a straight rule. A win is always better than a draw and that's always better than a defeat (I personally think that drawing against Derby is as good as beating Blackpool, and drawing against Millwall is 2 points dropped, where losing by 1 at Derby is to be expected; but like I say, I don't want it to be overly subjective, so need a set system). Beyond that, I've sorted by a combination of league position and winning/losing margin. Finally, I've used percentages against the team's overall average It has been suggested to me that I ought to take the opposition's form at the time of playing them into account. I'm not going to do that for two reasons; (1) I don't believe it's makes sense, because "form" is often driven by the teams that have just been played. If you play nothing but relegation fodder and beat them, you could be deemed to be in a real purple patch and vice versa, and (2) I'd then have to look at the form of the teams that made up the form of the teams that we played...etc. and it becomes insanely complicated and inevitably subjective again. Ultimately, to be even more accurate, I might have to include substitute appearances and pro-rata the "points" according to the minutes they're on the pitch. The same applies to players that are taken off. That will take a lot more time though, so might have to apply in a later edition. Onto the effect of yesterday's game then... I've set it right to the top of the pile, with Boro being the highest placed team that we've beaten, and this time by a two goal margin. The methodology changes have calmed a few spikes down. The exception being Dielna at Left Back, which is ridiculously high. The reason for that, is simply that it's based on so few games, rather than being smoothed out over a bigger sample size. Considering that he's featured in that position against Boro (2-0 win), Forest (2-0 win), Millwall (3-1 win), and Norwich (0-0), it makes sense that his score is strong. In the 3 of those games in which we scored, Maghoma played in front of him, and played well. That could just be a coincidence, but I think it's interesting nonetheless, personally. Kieran Lee and Sam Hutchinson still don't come out as well as I'd've expected. I'm sure that Stevie May doesn't for some too (sorry IshSB, I can't make the stats say anything else!). Keane has emerged as the clear front runner to partner Attey though. Perhaps that's to be expected after scoring 3 in 8 (versus Stevie's 6 in 24+6), making him 3 times more prolific (on paper!) in the few games he's played. So the "most effective" team that 50 Shades could select in our next game, in theory, is currently... - - - - - - - - - - Westwood - - - - - - - - - - - - - Palmer - - - - Lees - - - Zayatte - - - - Dielna Maguire - McGugan - Semedo - Maghoma - - - - - - - - Nuhiu - - - - - Keane - - - - - - - - . Edited March 1, 2015 by George Whitebread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daniel Walker Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Lee should start on the right on wednesday night still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'd agree. It doesn't really make sense to change a winning side. I think Lee being in there rather than Maguire gives the team a better balance in terms of defensive-attacking. Particularly against strong opposition like Blackburn and Wolves. Maybe we could get away with being a bit more cavalier and swap him for Maguire against the likes of Blackpool, Rotherham, and Huddersfield though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Still May/Nuhiu for me. People getting carried away with Keane imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 For the long term benefit? I suppose we are safe now, and it is very unlikely that we can make a run on the play-offs. The only thing is, if we're definitely replacing Attey in the summer, which many are insisting we ought to, is it really worth him and Stevie forging partnership up there? Wouldn't we be better off giving him the odd cameo off the bench, and see if he can nick the odd goal, like he did against Millwall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Damn it! IshSB has managed to inadvertently highlight an error that I've made. It was always going to happen with that much data to input. I added the team for each of the Birmingham games the wrong way around. Or I added the scores the wrong way around. Whatever. I cocked it up anyway! Genuine mistake. As I've said before, it's a bit of a work in progress. Here's the updated version anyway.... - - - - - - - - - - Westwood - - - - - - - - - - Palmer - - - Lees - - - Zayatte - - - Dielna - - - - - - - - - - - Semedo - - - - - - - - - - - - Maguire - McGugan - Coke - Maghoma - - - - - - - - - - - - Nuhiu - - - - - - - - - - - - . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 Updated stats.... Still showing that Semedo and Nuhiu have been two of our most important players this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now