BIG D Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 Match No 1 - 0 Match No 2 - 0 Match No 3 - 1 Match No 4 - 1 Match No 5 - 3 Match No 6 - 3 Match No 7 - 2 Match No 8 - 4 Match No 9 - 4 Match No 10 - 7 XISCO MUNOZ SACKED Match No 11 - 7 DANNY Röhl APPOINTED Match No 12 - 9 Match No 13 - 11 Match No 14 - 8 Match No 15 - 9 Match No 16 - 9 Match No 17 - 10 Match No 18 - 12 Match No 19 - 10 Match No 20 - 8 Match No 21 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/9 Match No 22 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 3/10 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/3 Match No 23 - 6 Match No 24 - 9 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/7 Match No 25 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/4 Match No 26 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 5/6 Match No 27 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/5 Match No 28 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 29 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 30 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 31 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/15 Match No 32 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/2 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 33 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowry Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Scores go our way we could be down to a solitary point 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig60 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 On 18/12/2023 at 15:14, Craig60 said: There is only one game until the halfway mark so 19 pts is the maximum we can achieve. On the data of the last 20 years the average points total to absolute safety is 45 and on that basis we would require 29pts from the final 24 games. P24: W8, D5, L11 So not impossible at all. However 45 points would see you relegated in half of those years. Points To Safety 22/23 - 45 21/22 – 48 without points deduction 20/21 – 45 without points deduction for SW 19/20 – 50 without points deduction 18/19 - 41 17/18 – 42 16/17 – 52 R 15/16 - 41 14/15 – 42 13/14 - 45 12/13 – 55 11/12 – 49 without points deduction 10/11 – 43 09/10 – 48 Wednesday Relegated 08/09 – 47 07/08 – 53 06/07 – 47 05/06 - 43 04/05 – 51 R 03/04 - 52 One factor that sees the points to safety rises significantly is those years when there is a particularly badly performed team that achieves less than 30pts for the season. That was Rotherham in 16/17 (23 points) and 04/05 (29pts) and they could be on a similar pathway this season. The 2012/2013 season is an outlier with Peterborough winning 15 games and achieving 54pts and still being relegated. Update: Historically, 45 points will give us a 50/50 chance of staying up. Since December 17 we have picked up 13 points in 11 games (W4, D1, L6). Given our current dire goal difference, we probably need 46 points for an even chance of staying up: so that's 17 points from 13 games (W5, D2, L6). Still not impossible or even unlikely and If we win games against our rivals our chances of staying up are improved. All credit to Röhl and his team that we are still in their fighting but the situation is tenuous. It's far more likely we'll be down with a couple of games to go, than still alive, but we are a much improved team and could well take this to last game of the season, away to Sunderland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogers Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 This is how I think it could end..unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spondon Owl Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Rogers said: This is how I think it could end..unfortunately. That would be depressing. But I think you're right. It's a one game in it type of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG D Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 Match No 1 - 0 Match No 2 - 0 Match No 3 - 1 Match No 4 - 1 Match No 5 - 3 Match No 6 - 3 Match No 7 - 2 Match No 8 - 4 Match No 9 - 4 Match No 10 - 7 XISCO MUNOZ SACKED Match No 11 - 7 DANNY Röhl APPOINTED Match No 12 - 9 Match No 13 - 11 Match No 14 - 8 Match No 15 - 9 Match No 16 - 9 Match No 17 - 10 Match No 18 - 12 Match No 19 - 10 Match No 20 - 8 Match No 21 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/9 Match No 22 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 3/10 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/3 Match No 23 - 6 Match No 24 - 9 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/7 Match No 25 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/4 Match No 26 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 5/6 Match No 27 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/5 Match No 28 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 29 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 30 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 31 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/15 Match No 32 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/2 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 33 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/7 Match No 34 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwellOwl Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 32 minutes ago, BIG D said: Match No 1 - 0 Match No 2 - 0 Match No 3 - 1 Match No 4 - 1 Match No 5 - 3 Match No 6 - 3 Match No 7 - 2 Match No 8 - 4 Match No 9 - 4 Match No 10 - 7 XISCO MUNOZ SACKED Match No 11 - 7 DANNY Röhl APPOINTED Match No 12 - 9 Match No 13 - 11 Match No 14 - 8 Match No 15 - 9 Match No 16 - 9 Match No 17 - 10 Match No 18 - 12 Match No 19 - 10 Match No 20 - 8 Match No 21 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/9 Match No 22 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 3/10 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/3 Match No 23 - 6 Match No 24 - 9 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/7 Match No 25 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/4 Match No 26 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 5/6 Match No 27 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/5 Match No 28 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 29 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 30 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 31 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/15 Match No 32 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/2 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 33 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/7 Match No 34 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Hold on to your hats. This sh*t has got real. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG D Posted February 27 Author Share Posted February 27 Match No 1 - 0 Match No 2 - 0 Match No 3 - 1 Match No 4 - 1 Match No 5 - 3 Match No 6 - 3 Match No 7 - 2 Match No 8 - 4 Match No 9 - 4 Match No 10 - 7 XISCO MUNOZ SACKED Match No 11 - 7 DANNY Röhl APPOINTED Match No 12 - 9 Match No 13 - 11 Match No 14 - 8 Match No 15 - 9 Match No 16 - 9 Match No 17 - 10 Match No 18 - 12 Match No 19 - 10 Match No 20 - 8 Match No 21 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/9 Match No 22 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 3/10 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/3 Match No 23 - 6 Match No 24 - 9 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/7 Match No 25 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/4 Match No 26 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 5/6 Match No 27 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/5 Match No 28 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 29 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 30 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 31 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/15 Match No 32 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/2 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 33 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/7 Match No 34 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holmowl Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 On 20/02/2024 at 01:06, Rogers said: This is how I think it could end..unfortunately. That means we get only 11 more points from 12 games. That’s considerably worse than our form over any period since late October. What have you seen in our recent performances to suggest that we are about to hit a significant dip in form? BTW you’ve got Blackburn on 45 games. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holmowl Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 On 20/02/2024 at 00:13, Craig60 said: Update: Historically, 45 points will give us a 50/50 chance of staying up. Since December 17 we have picked up 13 points in 11 games (W4, D1, L6). Given our current dire goal difference, we probably need 46 points for an even chance of staying up: so that's 17 points from 13 games (W5, D2, L6). Still not impossible or even unlikely and If we win games against our rivals our chances of staying up are improved. All credit to Röhl and his team that we are still in their fighting but the situation is tenuous. It's far more likely we'll be down with a couple of games to go, than still alive, but we are a much improved team and could well take this to last game of the season, away to Sunderland. Do you think we’ll lose 6 of our final 12 games? I think we look far better than that these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig60 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 21 hours ago, Holmowl said: Do you think we’ll lose 6 of our final 12 games? I think we look far better than that these days. We have looked far better but it's not difficult to think we could lose to Leeds, Ipswich, Middlesborough, Blackburn, WBA, Sunderland or drop any one of several other games. We don't edge past Rotherham that often 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG D Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 Match No 1 - 0 Match No 2 - 0 Match No 3 - 1 Match No 4 - 1 Match No 5 - 3 Match No 6 - 3 Match No 7 - 2 Match No 8 - 4 Match No 9 - 4 Match No 10 - 7 XISCO MUNOZ SACKED Match No 11 - 7 DANNY Röhl APPOINTED Match No 12 - 9 Match No 13 - 11 Match No 14 - 8 Match No 15 - 9 Match No 16 - 9 Match No 17 - 10 Match No 18 - 12 Match No 19 - 10 Match No 20 - 8 Match No 21 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/9 Match No 22 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 3/10 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/3 Match No 23 - 6 Match No 24 - 9 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/7 Match No 25 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/4 Match No 26 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 5/6 Match No 27 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/5 Match No 28 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 29 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 30 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 31 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/15 Match No 32 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/2 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 33 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/7 Match No 34 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/6 Match No 35 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakefieldowl Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 Thanks Big D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frastheowl Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 Trending very nicely. Catching 21st is obviously the aim, but the rate at which we've closed the gap to 18th and brought so many others teams into is very impressive. After gameweek 18, if somebody would've offered you to be 3 points adrift with 11 games to go, you'd have snatched their hands off. If this level of consistency and performance continues, it's merely a formality we'll be out of it, before the end of the season...but, and it's a big BUT, the key is maintaining it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frastheowl Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 2 minutes ago, frastheowl said: Trending very nicely. Catching 21st is obviously the aim, but the rate at which we've closed the gap to 18th and brought so many others teams into is very impressive. After gameweek 18, if somebody would've offered you to be 3 points adrift with 11 games to go, you'd have snatched their hands off. If this level of consistency and performance continues, it's merely a formality we'll be out of it, before the end of the season...but, and it's a big BUT, the key is maintaining it. Updated: posted wrong image! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smhouston Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 9 minutes ago, frastheowl said: Updated: posted wrong image! Surely it'd be 4 from safety due to GD being atrocious? Still incredible we've got a chance despite giving teams a 12 game head start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG D Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 Match No 1 - 0 Match No 2 - 0 Match No 3 - 1 Match No 4 - 1 Match No 5 - 3 Match No 6 - 3 Match No 7 - 2 Match No 8 - 4 Match No 9 - 4 Match No 10 - 7 XISCO MUNOZ SACKED Match No 11 - 7 DANNY Röhl APPOINTED Match No 12 - 9 Match No 13 - 11 Match No 14 - 8 Match No 15 - 9 Match No 16 - 9 Match No 17 - 10 Match No 18 - 12 Match No 19 - 10 Match No 20 - 8 Match No 21 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/9 Match No 22 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 3/10 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/3 Match No 23 - 6 Match No 24 - 9 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/7 Match No 25 - 6 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/4 Match No 26 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 2/5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 5/6 Match No 27 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/5 Match No 28 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 29 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 Match No 30 - 8 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 31 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/15 Match No 32 - 5 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 1/2 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/9 Match No 33 - 4 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/7 Match No 34 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 8/13 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/6 Match No 35 - 3 PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 4/6 Match No 36 - 0 points (8 goals) PADDY POWER ODDS TO BE RELEGATED 11/10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakefieldowl Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Thanks Big D. I knew it would be zero, but i enjoyed reading it all the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG D Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 Lets hope we can get out of the drop zone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frastheowl Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Might have to extend the y axis into the positive much sooner than I anticipated! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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