Reality Check Pt. 2

[Emerson Thome]

The reality check is this is probably the match where we will look back in a few weeks and say our relegation was confirmed.

 

This is not knocking Röhl. The state he walked into we needed someone to come in and give a 9/10 performance to save us, so we shouldn't be too downhearted if he can only give us 7 or 8/10 over 36 games. He has earned the right to carry on.

 

But we played like a relegated team today. I called it that Darren Moore would get us promoted. I called Xisco after two weeks and said it clearly wouldn't work, and so I'm calling it now - we are down. I just don't see us bouncing back - gradually over the course of Ipswich, Swansea and Boro the wind has gone out of our sails and there is no coming back from this now. A few reasons why?

 

1) Mismanagement from above - obviously the biggest fault. It is a bit boring/depressing to dwell on this, but of course, it was Chansiri that messed up our pre-season, inflicted Xisco on us and has made so many bad calls on the club that it feels listless. Most is well documented. But to dwell on one aspect - the state of the current squad - so many players out of contract, unbalanced and threadbare - this comes from the top. Who do we have who is contracted beyond the end of the season? Musaba, Gassama, Cadamarteri Michael Smith & Bambo? Not exactly the core of leaders we need to pull our assorted loans and players on the way out the door through to the end of the season. Doesn't inspire confidence for next season either.

 

2) It's a bit of a cliche to talk about a lack of leaders - but I think it is true here. Both in our dreadful away form and thinking how many points have we won from behind all season? Just QPR and Leicester I think - and they both had a bit of against-the-run-of-play about them. When a game is going badly, like today at 1-0 - we don't seem to have the nous or character to just dig deep, put our foot on the ball and play some solid football and get a foothold in the game. We've lost characters like Kieran Lee, Hutchinson, Luongo, in recent years and it seems to be all on Bannan now. The opposition know this too and mark him heavily. Vaulks, Palmer, Ihiekwe try and chip in where they can, but none of them are guaranteed starters. Makes the decision to let Byers go (and not replace him) even worse.

 

3) Set pieces - such an important part of the game and both our attacking and defensive play from set pieces has been tragic this year. I can't see this changing now at this late stage in the season. The last three games we have conceded soft goals from corners (against Ipswich they were even a man down). A good team from set pieces can scrape out wins where they are not deserved. A better defensive unit from corners would have beaten Swansea 1-0 and taken Boro to half time at 0-0.

 

4) Lack of game-changers in the squad. Occasionally a poor Wednesday team has saved itself in the last few weeks - now the transfer window is closed we can't bring in a Carlton Palmer, Deon Burton or Steve Howard to save our season around. And in our squad I don't think we have that mercurial Sibon, Antonio or JJ style player that could just hit form and win us a couple of games on their own. Who could do that? Poveda (asking a lot of a young lad, but he's shown glimpses), Windass? (If he hits the form of his life, I can't see it?), Gassama (ditto - would need to go up several levels in a week or two), Patto? (No - I can't see Röhl adopting the ways of the shíthouse). We've been relying on Musaba to give us that spark and in the last 7 games he has been dreadful. He's been dreadful most of the season truth be told, but a handful of goals from him have papered over the cracks.

 

If anyone from SWFC is reading this - come on - prove me wrong!

[everydays_wednesday]

The biggest reality check to me is that we were pipped by Ipswich last year and they are virtually 50 points better off than us this season after 40 games !!!!!!

 

Now that is mismanagement on a monumental scale.

[Supersiggi2]

11 minutes ago, Emerson Thome said:

 

 

2) It's a bit of a cliche to talk about a lack of leaders - but I think it is true here. Both in our dreadful away form and thinking how many points have we won from behind all season? Just QPR and Leicester I think - and they both had a bit of against-the-run-of-play about them. When a game is going badly, like today at 1-0 - we don't seem to have the nous or character to just dig deep, put our foot on the ball and play some solid football and get a foothold in the game. We've lost characters like Kieran Lee, Hutchinson, Luongo, in recent years and it seems to be all on Bannan now. The opposition know this too and mark him heavily. Vaulks, Palmer, Ihiekwe try and chip in where they can, but none of them are guaranteed starters. Makes the decision to let Byers go (and not replace him) even worse.

 

 

Leaders / game management: instance today when one of their lads on booking, Greenwood I think, clattered into a tackle. Looked a definite foul and very risky when already on a yellow.

 

Any other team in the league would have been screaming at the ref for the foul and 2nd booking...our lads just cracked on and took the throw in. 

[matthefish2002]

 

2 points off safety with 6 games left is far from confirmed as going down.

[Kew Owl]

22 minutes ago, matthefish2002 said:

 

2 points off safety with 6 games left is far from confirmed as going down.

Yes, you’re right of course in that there’s still 18 points to play for, but, based on todays performance, I don’t see us getting too many of them.

[Emerson Thome]

41 minutes ago, matthefish2002 said:

 

2 points off safety with 6 games left is far from confirmed as going down.

 

Yes, I'm saying what's going to happen. There's not much point debating it in 6 weeks when its already happened.

[Sparkwell76]

1 hour ago, Emerson Thome said:

The reality check is this is probably the match where we will look back in a few weeks and say our relegation was confirmed.

 

This is not knocking Röhl. The state he walked into we needed someone to come in and give a 9/10 performance to save us, so we shouldn't be too downhearted if he can only give us 7 or 8/10 over 36 games. He has earned the right to carry on.

 

But we played like a relegated team today. I called it that Darren Moore would get us promoted. I called Xisco after two weeks and said it clearly wouldn't work, and so I'm calling it now - we are down. I just don't see us bouncing back - gradually over the course of Ipswich, Swansea and Boro the wind has gone out of our sails and there is no coming back from this now. A few reasons why?

 

1) Mismanagement from above - obviously the biggest fault. It is a bit boring/depressing to dwell on this, but of course, it was Chansiri that messed up our pre-season, inflicted Xisco on us and has made so many bad calls on the club that it feels listless. Most is well documented. But to dwell on one aspect - the state of the current squad - so many players out of contract, unbalanced and threadbare - this comes from the top. Who do we have who is contracted beyond the end of the season? Musaba, Gassama, Cadamarteri Michael Smith & Bambo? Not exactly the core of leaders we need to pull our assorted loans and players on the way out the door through to the end of the season. Doesn't inspire confidence for next season either.

 

2) It's a bit of a cliche to talk about a lack of leaders - but I think it is true here. Both in our dreadful away form and thinking how many points have we won from behind all season? Just QPR and Leicester I think - and they both had a bit of against-the-run-of-play about them. When a game is going badly, like today at 1-0 - we don't seem to have the nous or character to just dig deep, put our foot on the ball and play some solid football and get a foothold in the game. We've lost characters like Kieran Lee, Hutchinson, Luongo, in recent years and it seems to be all on Bannan now. The opposition know this too and mark him heavily. Vaulks, Palmer, Ihiekwe try and chip in where they can, but none of them are guaranteed starters. Makes the decision to let Byers go (and not replace him) even worse.

 

3) Set pieces - such an important part of the game and both our attacking and defensive play from set pieces has been tragic this year. I can't see this changing now at this late stage in the season. The last three games we have conceded soft goals from corners (against Ipswich they were even a man down). A good team from set pieces can scrape out wins where they are not deserved. A better defensive unit from corners would have beaten Swansea 1-0 and taken Boro to half time at 0-0.

 

4) Lack of game-changers in the squad. Occasionally a poor Wednesday team has saved itself in the last few weeks - now the transfer window is closed we can't bring in a Carlton Palmer, Deon Burton or Steve Howard to save our season around. And in our squad I don't think we have that mercurial Sibon, Antonio or JJ style player that could just hit form and win us a couple of games on their own. Who could do that? Poveda (asking a lot of a young lad, but he's shown glimpses), Windass? (If he hits the form of his life, I can't see it?), Gassama (ditto - would need to go up several levels in a week or two), Patto? (No - I can't see Röhl adopting the ways of the shíthouse). We've been relying on Musaba to give us that spark and in the last 7 games he has been dreadful. He's been dreadful most of the season truth be told, but a handful of goals from him have papered over the cracks.

 

If anyone from SWFC is reading this - come on - prove me wrong!

I sincerely hope you’re wrong and we somehow find a way out.   
 

However, I completely agree with you and based on today’s abject performance am convinced we’re back in L1. 

[Geörge Whitebread]

1 hour ago, everydays_wednesday said:

The biggest reality check to me is that we were pipped by Ipswich last year and they are virtually 50 points better off than us this season after 40 games !!!!!!

 

Now that is mismanagement on a monumental scale.

 

Plymouth can say the same, and so can pretty much every club that has ever been promoted from the third to the second tier of English football. Ipswich's performance this season, as a newly-promoted side has been outstanding. They're the anomaly, not us. Relegation after being promoted via the play offs is the norm, unfortunately. 

[onslow]

1 hour ago, matthefish2002 said:

 

2 points off safety with 6 games left is far from confirmed as going down.

 

Our shocking goal difference is worth a point to the competing teams

 

Could see us slip down on GD

[New Zealand Owls]

1 hour ago, matthefish2002 said:

 

2 points off safety with 6 games left is far from confirmed as going down.

It's probably going to get a lot worse by 5pm next Saturday. Only Birmingham will be within touching distance as they go to Leicester.

 

QPR is a horrible fixture for us. Battle hardened team in great form and we are away. Think we might be needing snookers soon.

[Miffed]

7 hours ago, Geörge Whitebread said:

 

Plymouth can say the same, and so can pretty much every club that has ever been promoted from the third to the second tier of English football. Ipswich's performance this season, as a newly-promoted side has been outstanding. They're the anomaly, not us. Relegation after being promoted via the play offs is the norm, unfortunately. 

Of course. Some promoted teams struggle, some do well, some do what Ipswich are doing. But the question is why? I don’t think anyone realistically expected us to be challenging at the top. What is it the difference in our planning and preparation for this season compared to theirs. 

[Roscoe P. Coltrane]

14 minutes ago, Miffed said:

Of course. Some promoted teams struggle, some do well, some do what Ipswich are doing. But the question is why? I don’t think anyone realistically expected us to be challenging at the top. What is it the difference in our planning and preparation for this season compared to theirs. 

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

13 minutes ago, Miffed said:

Of course. Some promoted teams struggle, some do well, some do what Ipswich are doing. But the question is why? I don’t think anyone realistically expected us to be challenging at the top. What is it the difference in our planning and preparation for this season compared to theirs. 

 

They spent around £6m on transfers while they were a League One club, then topped it up with another £4m or so this season. 

 

It's remarkable that we were anywhere near them last season, if anything.

[Bulldog]

Weeks ago when someone put one of those "how many points will we end up with" posts I said I couldn't see us ending up with more than 42

I then thought how ridiculous low that became....until the last 4 games have passed.

I'll stick with out now.

[Geörge Whitebread]

1 hour ago, Miffed said:

Of course. Some promoted teams struggle, some do well, some do what Ipswich are doing. But the question is why? I don’t think anyone realistically expected us to be challenging at the top. What is it the difference in our planning and preparation for this season compared to theirs. 

 

 

Our planning and preparation has been diabolical. Of the three promoted teams, we should have been in the better shape after we were only relegated in the first place due to a points deduction. But our squad has been progressively weakened over five last few seasons. 

 

But using Ipswich this season as a yardstick is a bit silly. The vast majority of teams promoted via the play offs are relegated the next season. The odd one just about survives. I'm not aware of any that have done what Ipswich are doing.

 

[@owlstalk]

 

[Geörge Whitebread]

1 hour ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

They spent around £6m on transfers while they were a League One club, then topped it up with another £4m or so this season. 

 

It's remarkable that we were anywhere near them last season, if anything.

 

 

Except that we started with a squad that had more experience of higher level football than any other in the division (by some distance!), and a very settled team going into our second season.

 

And, as we know... "It's not as easy as slapping a bunch of decent players together and expecting them to better well-established teams" 

 

(a statement that was deemed to apply to our first season in League One but not our first back in the Championship, despite significantly more changes, and now, apparently, not to Ipswich either)

 

Ipswich would have won that League at a canter had they started the season as they ended it.

Another significant difference is that they had a young squad that naturally improved with experience from one season to the next, even without additional spending, while our best players were already well past their best, and therefore get worse with each passing season. 

 

 

Edited April 2 by Geörge Whitebread

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

1 minute ago, Geörge Whitebread said:

Except that we started with a squad that had more experience of higher level football than any other in the division (by some distance!), and a very settled team going into our second season.

 

And, as we know... "It's not as easy as slapping a bunch of decent players together and expecting them to better well-established teams" 

 

(a statement that was deemed to apply to our first season in League One but not our first back in the Championship, despite significantly more changes, and now, apparently, not to Ipswich either)

 

Ipswich would have won that League at a canter had they started the season as they ended it.

A significant difference is that they had a young squad that naturally improved with experience from one season to the next, even without additional spending, while our best players were already well past their best, and therefore get worse with each passing season. 

 

Over the summer 2022 transfer window, we saw greater 'squad churn' than Ipswich, with only 56.4% of the previous season's league minutes accumulated by players who were still at the club, compared to Ipswich's 65.1%. We added 12 new signings, whilst they added 10. They were the more settled squad going into the season.

 

It was the January transfer window where they made 5 new signings which took them to the next level, whilst we added...um..Aden Flint.

[Geörge Whitebread]

1 minute ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

Over the summer 2022 transfer window, we saw greater 'squad churn' than Ipswich, with only 56.4% of the previous season's league minutes accumulated by players who were still at the club, compared to Ipswich's 65.1%. We added 12 new signings, whilst they added 10. They were the more settled squad going into the season.

 

It was the January transfer window where they made 5 new signings which took them to the next level, whilst we added...um..Aden Flint.

 

In that summer, they added players that featured as regular starters, where we added more peripheral squad players (crappy recruitment, as usual). 

 

We definitely dropped the ball even more so in that January window though, as you say... and every one since! 

F*** Off Chansiri, basically!!!

 

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

45 minutes ago, Geörge Whitebread said:

But using Ipswich this season as a yardstick is a bit silly. The vast majority of teams promoted via the play offs are relegated the next season. The odd one just about survives. I'm not aware of any that have done what Ipswich are doing.

 

We weren't just any old playoff winner, though. We were a team which averaged more than two points per game last season - that's a pretty elite group of only 10 teams in the past dozen seasons...

 

 

Ipswich are doing better than any previous promoted team of a similar calibre has managed, but if we go straight back down, we'll be the first 93+ pointer to do so.