Ante's Bubbly Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Surely sacking a manager works if the manager is the source of the failure and doesn't work if the source of failure is out of his control? After all there are brilliant managers, good managers and absolutely rubbish managers,, so going from a rubbish one to a brilliant one or vice versa is bound to have some effect, otherwise clubs would do without managers altogether. I don't think we have all imagined things when a new manager has come into the club and totally transformed the place, as Megson did for example, not too long ago. We had Sturrock, Laws, Megson and now DJ who have all been denied key players by their chairmen and then, as a result (or lack of) ended up being sacked. If Ferguson had not been able to buy young players like Rio Ferdinand, Beckham not to mention other players he bought like Ince and so on, how long would he have lasted exactly at Man U? If Ferguson had been manager at Hillsborough under Dave Allen or Mandaric he would have been sacked to hide their mistakes not for his own. Of course there is the other side of this, where a manager is actually rubbish for whatever reason or upsets so many of the players that they no longer want to play for him and in those instances, whether the manager is decent or not, they get sacked because it is easier and cheaper than replacing the players. Back 'em don't sack 'em! The pigs should also get Weir back in, he looks a brilliant manager for them at that level and could take them where they truly belong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scram Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 (edited) What is it they say .. there are lies damn lies and statistics? It really is an impossible hypothetical statistic to prove. Unless you can have a parallel scenario running along side each other then I put it to you that you just couldn't draw a conclusive result but just an assumption as to what may have happened. Thats the same with most research though 2 groups and each participant can only be in one group - therefore the trends are explored. You can extrapolate the results to predict likely outcomes but you can't say the direction of the trend will hold true in every individual case Take medical research for eg - some people take an active drug while others take a placebo. The trend shows overwhelmingly that the active drug is far more effective for its purpose. But within that group some individuals won't benefit and some will even get worse - but the statistical significance regarding the drugs efficacy will prevail meaning it will likely be produced and prescribed. Edited October 16, 2013 by scram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manilovetheowls Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Love the sucking off in this thread of a Dr who I bet 99% of people have never heard of (including me) Personally think the 'report' is testicli, there are simply too many variants and variables in football to come to a solid conclusion. Everytime a manager is sacked and replaced by any club, it's a risk and no one knows what's going to happen. It's Ok saying 'this proves that sacking Jones will do nothing for the medium to long term.' but I argue that keeping him is going to do nothing for our medium long term, no one knows what the feck is gunna happen but ask yourselfs this, do you think we are likely to be relegated this season with DJ? If the answer is yes then he needs to go, regardless of what you 'think' he could do in the long term. And yes a new manager might have us in the same position in 2 years time, but if he keeps us up its in the clubs best interest at the time. On course he might not keep us up, that's the risk you take. Football/sport team management is probably different to any other position in the working world. You could say a report like this would be conclusive for say something like an IT Managers job within a company but not for football. 'Ooooooo I can read a statistical research report, I must be better then everyone else' so anyone who disagrees with it is wrong. I dont care who this Dr is, but as he played a decent standard of football? managed a club? My guess is he knows flip all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corneliusreeve Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Love the sucking off in this thread of a Dr who I bet 99% of people have never heard of (including me) Personally think the 'report' is testicli, there are simply too many variants and variables in football to come to a solid conclusion. Everytime a manager is sacked and replaced by any club, it's a risk and no one knows what's going to happen. It's Ok saying 'this proves that sacking Jones will do nothing for the medium to long term.' but I argue that keeping him is going to do nothing for our medium long term, no one knows what the feck is gunna happen but ask yourselfs this, do you think we are likely to be relegated this season with DJ? If the answer is yes then he needs to go, regardless of what you 'think' he could do in the long term. And yes a new manager might have us in the same position in 2 years time, but if he keeps us up its in the clubs best interest at the time. On course he might not keep us up, that's the risk you take. Football/sport team management is probably different to any other position in the working world. You could say a report like this would be conclusive for say something like an IT Managers job within a company but not for football. 'Ooooooo I can read a statistical research report, I must be better then everyone else' so anyone who disagrees with it is wrong. I dont care who this Dr is, but as he played a decent standard of football? managed a club? My guess is he knows flip all Love the sucking off in this thread of a Dr who I bet 99% of people have never heard of (including me) Personally think the 'report' is testicli, there are simply too many variants and variables in football to come to a solid conclusion. Everytime a manager is sacked and replaced by any club, it's a risk and no one knows what's going to happen. It's Ok saying 'this proves that sacking Jones will do nothing for the medium to long term.' but I argue that keeping him is going to do nothing for our medium long term, no one knows what the feck is gunna happen but ask yourselfs this, do you think we are likely to be relegated this season with DJ? If the answer is yes then he needs to go, regardless of what you 'think' he could do in the long term. And yes a new manager might have us in the same position in 2 years time, but if he keeps us up its in the clubs best interest at the time. On course he might not keep us up, that's the risk you take. Football/sport team management is probably different to any other position in the working world. You could say a report like this would be conclusive for say something like an IT Managers job within a company but not for football. 'Ooooooo I can read a statistical research report, I must be better then everyone else' so anyone who disagrees with it is wrong. I dont care who this Dr is, but as he played a decent standard of football? managed a club? My guess is he knows flip all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corneliusreeve Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Fu ck not used to posting on phone, was going to say good, post still am actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJMortimer Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 When this thread was started I should have predicted some of the posters who would vehemently disagree with it. I'd have looked like a genius. Anyone would think their opinions were dictated by some sort of over-riding preconception or something. I haven't studied this research in depth, and probably won't. But it's central premise seems perfectly reasonable and likely to me. Our own recent history alone does little to demonstrate otherwise. But if you are of the opinion that Jones should be dismissed without delay, it is possible to still hold that view whilst accepting the report might well be generally accurate. I don't see the necessity to desperately try and smash even the tiniest trace of support for the manager, no matter how tenuous or fleeting. This study does not claim that managerial change can't work, as indeed multiple examples will show clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manilovetheowls Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 It can't 'claim' anything. If we sacked Jones would we stay up, would we then go on to have years of success or would we go backwards? If we didn't sack Jones would we stay up, would we then go on to have years of success or would we go backwards? The same questions will give different answers for every angle for every manager for every club. It's impossible to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scram Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 It can't 'claim' anything. If we sacked Jones would we stay up, would we then go on to have years of success or would we go backwards? If we didn't sack Jones would we stay up, would we then go on to have years of success or would we go backwards? The same questions will give different answers for every angle for every manager for every club. It's impossible to say. Of course it can make claims pertaining to what it is investigating/measuring It cannot predict the outcome in every single individual case but has identified trends Just the same as a new drug which was found to benefit 99% of the people in clinical trials will help every single person in every single case thereafter But if given to a random selection of applicable people it will help in the vast majority of cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronio Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I think investment/money has a lot to do with the outcome of whether a manager is successful or not or whether he should stay in the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Big Guns Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 After studying this thread in its entirety I have come up with a pretictable and genuine conclusion It seems obvious to me that the posters who agree with this ridiculous study are the ones who think they are intellectually superior to the vast majority of owlstalk personal When in reality they are just happy flippingclappers with no common flippingsense ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cowl Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 BG's Achilles heel; being made to feel intellectually inferior. Never fails to wind him up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJMortimer Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 After studying this thread in its entirety I have come up with a pretictable and genuine conclusion It seems obvious to me that the posters who agree with this ridiculous study are the ones who think they are intellectually superior to the vast majority of owlstalk personal When in reality they are just happy flippingclappers with no common flippingsense ........ BG's Achilles heel; being made to feel intellectually inferior. Never fails to wind him up. Don't buy into that pantomime; he's obviously much smarter than his persona on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cowl Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Don't buy into that pantomime; he's obviously much smarter than his persona on here. Oh, I know - I especially like the spelling mistakes he edits into his every post. The Al Murray of Owlstalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Big Guns Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 BG's Achilles heel; being made to feel intellectually inferior. Never fails to wind him up. Your right it gets me every time really winds me up When are you going to do it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cowl Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Thickie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Handball_!! Posted April 22, 2014 Author Share Posted April 22, 2014 I know it's Dutch but you can't argue with the science Statistically sacking a manager has no effect on results when compared to keeping the manager. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23724517 "Changing a manager during a crisis in the season does improve the results in the short term," he says. "But this is a misleading statistic because not changing the manager would have had the same result." Ter Weel analysed managerial turnover across 18 seasons (1986-2004) of the Dutch premier division, the Eredivisie. As well as looking at what happened to teams who sacked their manager when the going got tough, he looked at those who had faced a similar slump in form but who stood by their boss to ride out the crisis. He found that both groups faced a similar pattern of declines and improvements in form. Can't resist bumping this bugger... The other thread on here reminded me of something I posted months ago. Above... Sooooo - Given that we are going to finish within a couple of points and places as last season. I was totally correct, the science is spot on and sacking DJ has had minimal effect. In fact I'm going to predict right now, we will also finish somewhere between 50 and 58 points next season, whoever is managing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC3 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 I was totally correct, the science is spot on and sacking DJ has had minimal effect. I hope you don't genuinely believe that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southportdc Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Dave Jones points per game this year- 0.63 Stuart Gray ppg this year- 1.5 That's quite a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Big Guns Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 After studying this thread in its entirety I have come up with a pretictable and genuine conclusion It seems obvious to me that the posters who agree with this ridiculous study are the ones who think they are intellectually superior to the vast majority of owlstalk personal When in reality they are just happy flippingclappers with no common flippingsense ........ top post that man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sinner Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 I know it's Dutch but you can't argue with the science Can't resist bumping this bugger... The other thread on here reminded me of something I posted months ago. Above... Sooooo - Given that we are going to finish within a couple of points and places as last season. I was totally correct, the science is spot on and sacking DJ has had minimal effect. In fact I'm going to predict right now, we will also finish somewhere between 50 and 58 points next season, whoever is managing us Eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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