I know it's Dutch but you can't argue with the science

[Past Member]

I am discussing a subject within a thread that I didn't start, thanks!

 

Something that I have been saying on here for years and not just days.

 

A paper that backs up things I was saying during Laws' and Megson's time too.

 

Yes you're right you didn't start the thread.That's a shame,  Looks like I've jumped into La La land by myself.

[Handball_!!]

What I would say though is that there are certain managers who this doesn't apply to because they are in the top 1% of their profession and it would always be worthwhile replacing your current manager with one of those.

 

In SWFC terms that would be people like:

 

Atkinson

Charlton

Wilkinson

 

All other SWFC manegarial changes in my lifetime (I'm 50) have been pointless because they've been replaced by more of the same.

[cowl]

Fücking hell, zzmdu, chill out!!!

[Guest Distraught!]

What I would say though is that there are certain managers who this doesn't apply to because they are in the top 1% of their profession and it would always be worthwhile replacing your current manager with one of those.

 

In SWFC terms that would be people like:

 

Atkinson

Charlton

Wilkinson

 

All other SWFC manegarial changes in my lifetime (I'm 50) have been pointless because they've been replaced by more of the same.

 

100% spot on and nothing different from what I and certain other posters have been saying.

 

The argument is about how to bring about improvement, not DJ's job prospects.

[Past Member]

Fücking hell, zzmdu, chill out!!!

 

No way, Owlstalk is much more fun when you jump in with both feet (as long as your prepared to look like a bit of a *** from time to time).

[cowl]

It is true actually, and needless to say, I don't really want you to chill out.

[Guest Big Guns]

Aye, I guess so if you disagree with the contents.

The same thing can be said for every publication, theory, report or book ever written.

A bit like you with bellamys book then

[Guest Distraught!]

A bit like you with bellamys book then

 

Yes quite!

 

One written by an intellectual and eminent professor and one written a person who is most people's idea of a do-do or pondlife.

[ramone]

Dr Bas ter Weel.

 

World renowned academic and scholar - multiple publications in peer-reviewed academic journals.

 

Highly respected author and presenter at high level global conventions

 

Senior researcher at a top university

 

Producer of obvious tripe...

Best post ever on Owlstalk

[Eightace]

Of course it makes a difference who the manager is.

What a load of tosh.

Each have their own ways of working.They have different training methods,contacts,tactics,personality,experience,luck.

Alex ferguson would sort this club out in a few months.Not the young ferguson,the man he is now.He has so much experience he is head and shoulders above jones.

Statistics don't mean anything in this situation.There is always someone who can do a better job.There is a reason jones has never managed a top 4 side.

Changing the manager will work when you get rid of the wrong man and bring in the right one.

[Eightace]

I think it highlights that changing the manager for no other reason than to produce an immediate upturn in results will usually not yield a better outcome than sticking with the manager you have - somewhere along the line the team will revert to the mean and results will slump again. Might get a club out of a short term hole but likely to see the same problems arise again

 

I think the subtext is that for change have an ongoing effect then there needs to be more than just managerialchange 

Mcarthy kept Ipswich up when I'm sure they would have been down by keeping jewell.

It may have only fixed them short term who knows but short term is what matters when you're facing relegation.

But lets go with the study and keep jones and pray everything will be ok.

[Guest Big Guns]

Mcarthy kept Ipswich up when I'm sure they would have been down by keeping jewell.

It may have only fixed them short term who knows but short term is what matters when you're facing relegation.

But lets go with the study and keep jones and pray everything will be ok.

Jewel actually said on satday that McCarthys doing a much better job at Ipswich than he did

[scram]

Mcarthy kept Ipswich up when I'm sure they would have been down by keeping jewell.

It may have only fixed them short term who knows but short term is what matters when you're facing relegation.

But lets go with the study and keep jones and pray everything will be ok.

 

 

Way to cherry-pick what you want to get across

 

They're not my stats btw - if you wanna challenge the research then feel free - all research is there to be challenged but it will probably take more than "yeah well a club changed their manager and stayed up so it proves its rubbish" - when the club may well have stayed up anyway

 

Equally it could be argued that if we'd changed our manager last season we might have been relegated - we don't know - but we do know the outcome could not have been better regarding our objective of staying up.

 

We have had 20 years of short term fixes and we are seemingly a league 1/champs yo-yo club - lower level champs club at best

 

Maybe thats our true level in modern football?

[alanharper]

"He found that both groups faced a similar pattern of declines and improvements in form."

 

 

Well yeah. Apart from the top few clubs, that applies every team in the bloody league so it proves nothing.

[Eightace]

Not cherry picking but showing that a change can work.It also worked when megson left.

There will be a point when it will be too late to do anything this season.

I'm saying regardless of studies we might have to gamble on a new man or face going down.

History means nothing.Whats happened has happened and has no bearing on what we do next.

[scram]

You say the change worked when we sacked Megson - yet here we are demanding another new manager

 

Who's to say (or not) that sticking with Megson (or others in the past) wouldn't see us in a better position now

 

The fact we sacked a manager and a short time later are desperate to change his replacement rather backs up what the research has predicted doesn't it? 

[Eightace]

Why are you, Mortimer who negs everyone when they make a valid point(I shall be negging away myself) and Distraught  so adamant changing managers wont work?

I'm willing to admit it might not but you three seem determined to keep jones.

Sacking megson did the job it was intended to do,rightly or wrongly and getting rid of jones may well do the same.

[scram]

Why are you, Mortimer who negs everyone when they make a valid point(I shall be negging away myself) and Distraught  so adamant changing managers wont work?

I'm willing to admit it might not but you three seem determined to keep jones.

Sacking megson did the job it was intended to do,rightly or wrongly and getting rid of jones may well do the same.

 

I don't know if what some people read is different to what i actually write but i have nowhere stated any determination to keep Jones - it just seems to be that anybody that isn't a rabid Jones-outer has to be his number 1 fan

 

Debating issues that don't paint Jones in a negative light doesn't mean i/we/them don't want the club to progress - but just hiring/firing in the same manner we have for the last 2 decades has left us where?

 

Again, you said sacking Megson worked - but ONLY if the desired outcome was being measured over the next dozen games

 

Equally on that basis it can be as legitimately said that NOT sacking Jones last season worked also - as long as the only objective was staying in the division 

 

Let me be clear - i have said many times that sacking Jones and replacing with like will just see us having these biannual debates and soon screaming for another guy to walk the plank

 

We need the takeover and hopefully a long term vista because nothing suchlike can really happen with an owner searching for his exit strategy

 

Where i get so frustrated with these debates is when there is the ABJ crew who see no further than the next few results - again, the cyclical pattern repetition that sees us gravitating downwards

 

A bit of vision and a plan is surely not too radical a proposal to ask is it?

 

Something like Swansea that can survive short-term managerial changes - Brighton are trying to do similar - ditto Watford

 

It is doable and we should be a prime candidate for that type of vision

 

Thats what i want - not just another fallguy to paper over the cracks of a failing football club

[DJMortimer]

Why are you, Mortimer who negs everyone when they make a valid point(I shall be negging away myself) and Distraught  so adamant changing managers wont work?

I'm willing to admit it might not but you three seem determined to keep jones.

Sacking megson did the job it was intended to do,rightly or wrongly and getting rid of jones may well do the same.

 

Seriously? Put your dummy back in. I believe I've negged two or three posts all night and just one of yours. And you go off like this? HOW DARE I HAVE THE TEMERITY NOT TO PROSTRATE MYSELF BEFORE YOUR GENIUS? And it's a gigantic nerve for you to make such a fuss given the clockwork regularity with which you (and several others) have targetted me for such treatment. This is why I think the ratings system contributes nothing to the site and should be abandoned. It serves little other purpose for some than the carrying out of petty vendettas that ultimately achieve absolutely nothing other than making themselves look like toddlers. 

 

For what it's worth, in the usual foaming at the mouth clamour to remorselessly keep punching Jones at every single opportunity, you have woefully misunderstood the scope and purpose of the research referred to. I haven't studied it but I'm sure the science behind it is reasonably sound. A couple of years ago, an English study reached a similar conclusion. But regardless, why is it at all necessary to get so rabid about it? Does it really matter that much? Has it guaranteed Jones another six months or confined us to relegation or something? 

 

Scram, is fighting a losing battle to try and introduce a little calm and logical pragmatism. But as he points out himself, it's just like George Bush's "you're either with us or you're against us" ultimatum. He, I and others like us have criticised Jones time and time again where we feel it has been merited. But because we don't want to treat him like Mussolini and his mistress we are constantly treated like lepers by the hysterical mob.

[DJMortimer]

As some posters will tell you (let it go you b@stards ), I have been known to post the odd statistical analysis myself. So the rather hysterical tirade I was subjected to a little earlier piqued my curiosity. I actually took the time to go back through my profile to see what reputation points I'd given out lately. Yes, I know it makes me a loser. After several pages, even I got bored and gave up, but it did take me back a full eight days. And do you know how many times 'Eightace' appeared in that list?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ONE.

 

I'm such a badass.