KivoOwl Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'd been hoping someone else would start a topic like this to put my mind at ease, but it seems I'll have to do it myself. Since Megson took over we've won just 9 points in 12 games. That's an average of 0.75 points per game. We have 8 games remaining, so let's say we don't improve (likely) and manage to keep on getting 0.75 points per game - that's 6 points. It leaves us with 50 points for the season. Here are the points you've needed to guarantee safety over the last ten years - 09/10 - 51 08/09 - 50 07/08 - 49 06/07 - 48 05/06 - 51 04/05 - 52 03/04 - 51 02/03 - 49 01/02 - 45 00/01 - 52 Yup, that's an average of 50 points, and with our superior goal difference over the other sides, it may as well be 49 - meaning we just need to keep playing as we are to stay up. But no worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trev Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Phew. Thanks Kivo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Big Guns Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 sound were staying up nice one its a good job cos were not going to get any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twolaptops Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 (edited) I'd been hoping someone else would start a topic like this to put my mind at ease, but it seems I'll have to do it myself. Since Megson took over we've won just 9 points in 12 games. That's an average of 0.75 points per game. We have 8 games remaining, so let's say we don't improve (likely) and manage to keep on getting 0.75 points per game - that's 6 points. It leaves us with 50 points for the season. Here are the points you've needed to guarantee safety over the last ten years - 09/10 - 51 08/09 - 50 07/08 - 49 06/07 - 48 05/06 - 51 04/05 - 52 03/04 - 51 02/03 - 49 01/02 - 45 00/01 - 52 Yup, that's an average of 50 points, and with our superior goal difference over the other sides, it may as well be 49 - meaning we just need to keep playing as we are to stay up. But no worse... Can't wait then. Yippeee. Happy days are here again Edited March 30, 2011 by twolaptops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geedee Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Statistics bore the he'll out of me but the fact is it should be easy from where we are to avoid relegation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest andyofsheffield Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Kivo the statman! Is that all the football leagues as an average or league 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mkowl Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Its the stat of 3 points out of the last 21 at home that worries me With Brighton, Warsaw and Brizzle Rovers away Looking at predictor, the Brighton game could be their promotion clincher if results in the next week or so fall right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weshallovercome Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'd been hoping someone else would start a topic like this to put my mind at ease, but it seems I'll have to do it myself. Since Megson took over we've won just 9 points in 12 games. That's an average of 0.75 points per game. We have 8 games remaining, so let's say we don't improve (likely) and manage to keep on getting 0.75 points per game - that's 6 points. It leaves us with 50 points for the season. Here are the points you've needed to guarantee safety over the last ten years - 09/10 - 51 08/09 - 50 07/08 - 49 06/07 - 48 05/06 - 51 04/05 - 52 03/04 - 51 02/03 - 49 01/02 - 45 00/01 - 52 Yup, that's an average of 50 points, and with our superior goal difference over the other sides, it may as well be 49 - meaning we just need to keep playing as we are to stay up. But no worse... So basically you're saying we've got a 50% chance of staying up........as 50 points or less has seen relegation in 5 out of ten seasons. Thanks, kivo.........that's made me feel loads better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owls maniac Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Cheers Kivo. Reassured me a little. However, our visit to Brighton may put a major dent in our goal difference advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobHowe Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just out of interest I've done BBC's Predictor this evening. Our results for the final 8 games of the season were: L L L D D W L L We stayed up by 3 points. Without wishing to point out the obvious, the games against Swindon, Walsall and Bristol Rovers are critical. Almost to the point that it won't matter what we do in the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest SimonR_SWFC Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I said on another thread that I could not see either Daggers, Bristol Rovers or Walsall getting to 50 points even if Walsall beat us and I predict a draw against Exeter on the final day. That said, if we don't get the minimum 7 points from our next four home games that should be feasible even with this "team" and end up going into the final day level on points with both Daggers and Walsall regardless of who they play, it's going to be a very nervy finale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mkowl Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Think in reality we are fighting to avoid the 4th relegation spot, that Swindon, Bristol Rovers and Plymouth will go down, Walsall are a bit close for comfort We need to drag Oldham into the mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owls maniac Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Walsall are away at saints on the final day. Hopefully they will still have second place to play for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJMortimer Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Form of teams at bottom of League One since we beat Bristol Rovers to go 2nd in mid December : (played/points) Oldham....................21/18 (0.857) Yeovil.......................19/31 (1.63) WEDNESDAY...........18/11 (0.61) Tranmere.................18/21 (1.17) Notts County.............18/20 (1.11) Dag & Redbridge......18/23 (1.28) Walsall.....................21/26 (1.24) Bristol Rovers...........19/15 (0.79) Swindon...................20/10 (0.50) Plymouth..................19/18 (not including points deduction) (0.95) If those averages continue the table will finish something like this : Yeovil..................60 Tranmere............54 Notts County........53 Dag & Redbridge. 53 Oldham...............53 WEDNESDAY......49 Walsall................49 Bristol Rovers.......43 Plymouth.............41 Swindon..............38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weshallovercome Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 (edited) Form of teams at bottom of League One since we beat Bristol Rovers to go 2nd in mid December : (played/points) Oldham....................21/18 (0.857) Yeovil.......................19/31 (1.63) WEDNESDAY...........18/11 (0.61) Tranmere.................18/21 (1.17) Notts County.............18/20 (1.11) Dag & Redbridge......18/23 (1.28) Walsall.....................21/26 (1.24) Bristol Rovers...........19/15 (0.79) Swindon...................20/10 (0.50) Plymouth..................19/18 (not including points deduction) (0.95) If those averages continue the table will finish something like this : Yeovil..................60 Tranmere............54 Notts County........53 Dag & Redbridge. 53 Oldham...............53 WEDNESDAY......49 Walsall................49 Bristol Rovers.......43 Plymouth.............41 Swindon..............38 Now that's more like it!................cheers DJM, I knew I could rely on you for some proper comforting stats. I'm not proud, staying up on goal difference will do me. p.s. I am presuming we stay up on goal difference.........we are aren't we? Edited March 30, 2011 by Weshallovercome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KivoOwl Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 How about since Megson took over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJMortimer Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Now that's more like it!................cheers DJM, I knew I could rely on you for some proper comforting stats. I'm not proud, staying up on goal difference will do me. Hope the repairs you had done a few weeks ago were good ones! It could get tense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weshallovercome Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hope the repairs you had done a few weeks ago were good ones! It could get tense. Thankfully, the op has been bloody marvelous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquirrelSlingshot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Unless there is an upturn in form (which doesn't look likely), it will be tight. But we are 4 points clear, and there are multiple teams between us and that final relegation spot, and games are running out. Swindon and Plymouth are as good as gone, and Bristol need wins quickly. There's only really Walsall at the moment who look like climbing out. If we can scramble a flukey victory in one of the next two home games (easier said than done, I know), then it should take some of the pressure off. 50 points should just about be enough (partly due to Plymouth's points deduction which reduces the safety target by a point or two) - I'll be surprised if Walsall get more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJMortimer Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 How about since Megson took over? played/points Oldham............ 11/3 () Yeovil............... 10/14 WEDNESDAY... 11/8 Tranmere......... 11/12 Notts Co........... 11/10 Dag & Red........ 11/16 Walsall............. 10/13 Bristol Rov........ 10/10 Swindon........... 10/7 Plymouth........... 8/10 leaving a final table of : Yeovil...............58 Dag & Red........54 Tranmere.........53 Notts Co...........51 WEDNESDAY...50 Oldham............49 Walsall.............49 Bristol Rov........45 Plymouth..........43 Swindon...........39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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