reading the season end fixtures in the tea leaves...

[duncanidaho]

I would suggest Swansea on 50 points and teams above them are safe, so we are looking at QPR (47) and below as the teams we have a chance of catching.

 

Lets look at the fixtures;

 

QPR                47 points      -      Hull (10th) A                  Preston (8th) H             Leeds (3rd) H                Coventry (7th) A

Millwall          47 points      -      Cardiff (11th) H             Sunderland (13th) A    Plymouth (20th) H        Swansea (15th) A

Blackburn      46 points      -      Leeds (3rd) A                 Sheff Weds (22nd) H  Coventry (7th) H            Leicester (1st) A

Stoke              46 points      -     Sheff Weds (22nd) A     Plymouth (20th) H       Southampton (4th) A   Bristol C (12th) H

Plymouth       45 points      -     Leicester (1st) H            Stoke (19th) A               Millwall (17th) A            Hull (10th) H

Huddersfield 43 points      -      Bristol C (12th) A          Swansea (15th) H         Birmingham (23rd) H   Ipswich (2nd) A

Sheff Weds   43 points      -       Stoke (19th) H              Blackburn (18th) A        WBA (5th) H                  Sunderland (13th) A

Birmingham  42 points      -      Coventry (7th) H           Rotherham (24th) A      Huddersfield (21st) A   Norwich (6th) H

 

QPR  are facing 4 teams in the top 10, but i can see them picking up 2 draws.   49 points

Millwall are facing a relegation rival and mid-table teams, 1 win 1 draw               51 points

Blackburn are facing us and three top 7 teams.  lose to us and draw 1                 47 points

Stoke are facing two relegation rivals lose to us and 1 win  1 draw                        50 points

Plymouth are facing two relegation rivals, will lose both and 1 draw                      46 points

Huddersfield are facing a relegation rival  1 win 1 draw                                            47 points

Wednesday are facing 2 relegation rivals  2 wins                                                       49 points

Birmingham are facing 2 relegation rivals and 2 top 7  1 win                                   45 points

 

 

we need a minimum of 4 points from the next two fixtures and that may just be enough to pip Plymouth and Birmingham.

win both and i think we stay up and hopefully safe going into the last fixture...

[OneEightSixSeven]

Last night, on here, I was told we couldn’t have 4 easier fixtures so worry not…

 

I know I know…

[Owling Wolfe]

8 hours ago, OneEightSixSeven said:

Last night, on here, I was told we couldn’t have 4 easier fixtures so worry not…

 

I know I know…

We could, we could have 4 games against Rotherham

[Owl In Black]

9 hours ago, duncanidaho said:

I would suggest Swansea on 50 points and teams above them are safe, so we are looking at QPR (47) and below as the teams we have a chance of catching.

 

Lets look at the fixtures;

 

QPR                47 points      -      Hull (10th) A                  Preston (8th) H             Leeds (3rd) H                Coventry (7th) A

Millwall          47 points      -      Cardiff (11th) H             Sunderland (13th) A    Plymouth (20th) H        Swansea (15th) A

Blackburn      46 points      -      Leeds (3rd) A                 Sheff Weds (22nd) H  Coventry (7th) H            Leicester (1st) A

Stoke              46 points      -     Sheff Weds (22nd) A     Plymouth (20th) H       Southampton (4th) A   Bristol C (12th) H

Plymouth       45 points      -     Leicester (1st) H            Stoke (19th) A               Millwall (17th) A            Hull (10th) H

Huddersfield 43 points      -      Bristol C (12th) A          Swansea (15th) H         Birmingham (23rd) H   Ipswich (2nd) A

Sheff Weds   43 points      -       Stoke (19th) H              Blackburn (18th) A        WBA (5th) H                  Sunderland (13th) A

Birmingham  42 points      -      Coventry (7th) H           Rotherham (24th) A      Huddersfield (21st) A   Norwich (6th) H

 

QPR  are facing 4 teams in the top 10, but i can see them picking up 2 draws.   49 points

Millwall are facing a relegation rival and mid-table teams, 1 win 1 draw               51 points

Blackburn are facing us and three top 7 teams.  lose to us and draw 1                 47 points

Stoke are facing two relegation rivals lose to us and 1 win  1 draw                        50 points

Plymouth are facing two relegation rivals, will lose both and 1 draw                      46 points

Huddersfield are facing a relegation rival  1 win 1 draw                                            47 points

Wednesday are facing 2 relegation rivals  2 wins                                                       49 points

Birmingham are facing 2 relegation rivals and 2 top 7  1 win                                   45 points

 

 

we need a minimum of 4 points from the next two fixtures and that may just be enough to pip Plymouth and Birmingham.

win both and i think we stay up and hopefully safe going into the last fixture...

So difficult to predict anything in this league. Some of those higher placed teams will be out of the picture come crunch time and that means sandals are on, thinking of where they will be next season and strange unexpected results occur with teams at the bottom triumphing. 

We beat Stoke and Blackburn that might be enough but I'd like another point somewhere to round us up to 50. 

Hopefully Sunderland will have the beach balls out on the last day, and I'll feel more comfortable when/if out destiny is our own. 

Our PPG (as you know) suggests currently we finish on 49 and 3 teams predicted to get less so currently we look ok. 

[Ian_D]

My take:

 

QPR                          DWLL 51
MILLWALL             WDWL 54
BLACKBURN         LDWL 50
STOKE                     LWLD 50
PLYMOUTH           LLLW 48
HUDDERS              LWWL 49
SWFC                      WDDW 49
BIRMINGHAM     LWLD 46

 

So we would scrap clear by 1 point

[Ian_D]

1 minute ago, Ian_D said:

My take:

 

QPR                          DWLL 51
MILLWALL             WDWL 54
BLACKBURN         LDWL 50
STOKE                     LWLD 50
PLYMOUTH           LLLW 48
HUDDERS              LWWL 49
SWFC                      WDDW 49
BIRMINGHAM     LWLD 46

 

So we would scrap clear by 1 point

oh my, my maths.  51 points, well safe

[Blue and white]

I think we will beat Stoke and Blackburn, by the time we play WBA they will have secured 5th spit and having nothing more to play for, they will probably start to rest players for the play offs or play half arsed as not to risk injury or suspension, Sunderland have fuckall to play for now and will already mentally be on the beach by the time we play them.

It is definitely in our own hands and 10 points from 4 games isn't unrealistic.

[bladeshater]

I haven't got a clue how it will end

[JohnnyQuinnsQuiff]

Looking at Blackburn’s games, the game against us is a ‘must win’ for them. Stoke’s game against us is a ‘must not lose’ for them. WBA will still be fighting for the play-off place they prefer. And as for Sunderland? That could be our ‘easiest game’.

 

In every team there will be players still trying to impress, to either get a move or a new contract. Don’t fall for this ‘players on the beach’ nonsense. And if there are players who think that they’re ‘on the beach’. Then they won’t be just in the teams that we play.

[JohnnyQuinnsQuiff]

3 minutes ago, bladeshater said:

I haven't got a clue how it will end

Two teams plus Rotherham will go down.

[Binky Griptite]

12 minutes ago, JohnnyQuinnsQuiff said:

Looking at Blackburn’s games, the game against us is a ‘must win’ for them. Stoke’s game against us is a ‘must not lose’ for them. WBA will still be fighting for the play-off place they prefer. And as for Sunderland? That could be our ‘easiest game’.

 

In every team there will be players still trying to impress, to either get a move or a new contract. Don’t fall for this ‘players on the beach’ nonsense. And if there are players who think that they’re ‘on the beach’. Then they won’t be just in the teams that we play.

 

I think West Broom could easily be confirmed in 5th when we play them, fingers crossed that's the case as i think teams with eyes on play off games (and nothing else to play for other than form) is the sweetspot for who you want to be playing against (everyone else is potentially playing for next year's contract)

[JohnnyQuinnsQuiff]

3 minutes ago, Binky Griptite said:

 

I think West Broom could easily be confirmed in 5th when we play them, fingers crossed that's the case as i think teams with eyes on play off games (and nothing else to play for other than form) is the sweetspot for who you want to be playing against (everyone else is potentially playing for next year's contract)

Not forgetting if you’d prefer to have the play-off game at home first?

[SHUowl]

Genuinely jealous of some people's optimism 

[JohnnyQuinnsQuiff]

4 minutes ago, SHUowl said:

Genuinely jealous of some people's optimism 

I would think that Blackburn, Plymouth, Stoke, Birmingham, Huddersfield and probably Millwall fans feel less optimistic.

[OneEightSixSeven]

I’ve just read the tea leaves in mine, says…. Wash the cup out

[duncanidaho]

I'm running a prediction competition and the following table shows the chance of staying up from the participants.

it is obviously a very small sample size and based on the perception of how things would turn out from before the Leeds game at the start of march.

 

interesting then was that Stoke looked nailed on to drop and Blackburn, Plymouth and Birmingham had an outside chance of going down in peoples minds.

 

[Owl In Black]

29 minutes ago, JohnnyQuinnsQuiff said:

 

In every team there will be players still trying to impress, to either get a move or a new contract. Don’t fall for this ‘players on the beach’ nonsense. And if there are players who think that they’re ‘on the beach’. Then they won’t be just in the teams that we play.

It's hardly nonsense. It happens every year. Teams with nowt to play for getting bowled over by lesser opposition.

 

Most players are either under contract, know they are leaving, or know where there negotiations are up to for a new deal. Those players will not want to risk injury that may scupper what plans they have laid. Yes there will be some out to impress but late April players know what's going on because they have agents who do the work and need to know what they need to be doing for their clients.

 

It's only our incompetent structure that leaves players genuinely not knowing where there future lies.

[Southie_Owl]

17 minutes ago, SHUowl said:

Genuinely jealous of some people's optimism 

 

Play like we did at Ipswich and the first half to Norwich and we are absolutely going down.

 

Play like we did in the games up to half time of the Leeds game, and away to QPR, and we stay up.

 

Could go either way.   The good news is that we have the fixtures to stay up, if the players want it enough.  

 

[duncanidaho]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/may/19/do-football-teams-with-nothing-to-play-for-really-end-up-on-the-beach

 

an opinion on 'players on the beach'

 

personally, i think its a fallacy, players are professional and are judged on their performances.  i can't imagine a manager accepting less than 100% effort in training and on match days.

 

if anything, like it mentions in the article i think teams will try to have a good final fixture for the fans, wherever they are in the table.

[OneEightSixSeven]

2 minutes ago, duncanidaho said:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/may/19/do-football-teams-with-nothing-to-play-for-really-end-up-on-the-beach

 

an opinion on 'players on the beach'

 

personally, i think its a fallacy, players are professional and are judged on their performances.  i can't imagine a manager accepting less than 100% effort in training and on match days.

 

if anything, like it mentions in the article i think teams will try to have a good final fixture for the fans, wherever they are in the table.

It’s professional pride, don’t think any footballer goes out not to win. However big games can produce more out of you mentally. Most players will give a good account of themselves in any game, some don’t in any game, depends on the player, humans aren’t they.