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mark77

Does it really "even itself out"?

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On 14/10/2017 at 20:54, mark77 said:

Ok so clearly a point lost today thanks to the referee (which ultimately might cost Carlos his job).

 

5-7 points lost now. We should be on 21-23 points and sat in the top 6 with just one defeat...

 

It's interesting to see that if decisions had gone the way they should have done we would only be on one loss (granted it would be Sheff Utd) and the league position would look alot more healthier. Carlos said as much in his post match press conference. Regardless of your opinion on whether you want him to stay or not he has a point...

So 2 more points likely dropped after both penalty claims turned down. It's clear both should have been given.

 

7-9 points lost now. Still no points gained through poor refereeing decisions.

 

We would likely be on 31-33 points with VAR (used in the Bundesliga/Serie A) and sat in 4th...

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There is a general pattern that the more a team attacks then the more penalties they get.

If a team creates loads of chances and deserves to be leading then if there’s a 50/50 penalty then the ref will give it.

If a team is struggling to create any chances then there’s a 50/50 penalty shout then refs tend not to give them.

 

Another pattern is teams at the top tend to get more luck, that’s because the ball is bouncing around the opposition penalty area more.

Where as you find that teams near the bottom tend to be unlucky more often.

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All fans of all clubs will tell you that in general they get the rough end of bad decisions and will be able to quote examples to back it up.

 

There is no evening out process of course but this debate crops up every year. Its nonsense to think that we always kop the worst of it season after season.

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6 minutes ago, Dirkster said:

All fans of all clubs will tell you that in general they get the rough end of bad decisions and will be able to quote examples to back it up.

 

There is no evening out process of course but this debate crops up every year. Its nonsense to think that we always kop the worst of it season after season.

 

The biggest pile of nonsense is when folk defend incompetent decisions by using the “evens out” line when quite clearly it does not 

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On 04/10/2017 at 00:22, Big Ron's Sovereign said:

 

Rumbelows cup- so we only won that game due to Man U being tired? Barmy. Btw Carlton was banned for that game because he had a drink of water in a game previously.

Did they change the rules mid-way through the season about finishing 3rd/ playoffs? Pointless 

Evans - his choice to do what he did 

Hartlepool - Can see why it was given, we've had much dodgier pens given against us and had stonewall pens not given for us, could've easily had a couple of pens this season, which we haven't.

 

4 huge decisions you mentioned counting over 26 yrs, Wow, even those are dubious..

 

If ever I'm in trouble I don't want your representation, 

Thanks.....I was going to post exactly the same. The Linc's owl post was one of the most ridiculous I've ever read on here....and that's saying something!

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Blatant pen on Rhodes in first half against Brizzle

5a1234a277599_ScreenShot2017-11-19at22_15_28.thumb.png.0081e0ae36bc39d8d4ed3e3351ef1402.png


And another clear foul on Bannan near the end. This one was similar (but more of a clear foul) to the one that Loovens got sent off for vs Derby, which again cost us the game..

5a1235ee9c811_ScreenShot2017-11-20at08_53_12.thumb.png.5d3529c27c668d62dd21e7f05c2ce3f2.png
 

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On 10/3/2017 at 11:03, offalyowl said:

It could be me been biased towards our club but it's very rare when we get them type of decisions for us and I dunno why, do the refs not like us or are the fa trying to keep us in the championship like some conspiracy or something 

 

I think it is you being biased, sure we've had a rough spell where decisions are concerned but that's just football, as far conspiracies, no, I don't believe that for a second.

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On 10/4/2017 at 07:08, Lincs Owl said:

I'm sure the teams we've narrowly beaten like Fulham and Brentford will point to some moment when we were lucky.

 

If you throw a coin up 1,000 times I'm pretty sure it would come up heads 500 times +/- 20 either way.   Sure someone in the betting industry will have the formula.

 

We have been unlucky this season but folk forget our REAL luck.

 

Playing Man Utd in 1991 Lge CF about 3 days before they faced Barca in a CWC Final.   We were just a warm-up game to them.

Getting promo in 1991 under Atkinson when we only finished 3rd in Lge 2.  Any other season we would have just been in play-offs.

Blades losing top scorer Ched Evans just when they were on verge of promotion- leaving us to scrape past them.  And he wasn't even guilty.

That dodgy penalty against Hartlepool at Cardiff.  My unbiased mate reckons it was never a pen.   We were 2-1 down with about 12 minutes to go and not looking like scoring.

 

That's four huge decisions in our favour.   Any more?

 

No-one remembers our good luck.... just the bad.

 

 

Man Utd....you're talking utter rubbish.

 

Promo in1991....I'll counter that with not getting promotion the first season 3pts for a win came in, if it had still been 2pts we'd have gone up, in any events both scenarios are ridiculous, it's the same for everyone when a season starts.

 

Ched Evans....don't make me laugh, if he hadn't cheated on his girlfriend & been charged with something(guilty or not)he would almost certainly have left the Blades in January, so if anything him being a fwit benefited the Blades.....however, one game he DID play in was the game at Hillsborough, as it turned out they only needed to draw that game, where were his scoring boots that day.

 

Hartlepool....seen pens given for a lot less than that, plus, if the Monkey Hangers had been good enough they would have won it in extra time.

 

 

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13 hours ago, Big Ron's Sovereign said:

 

The biggest pile of nonsense is when folk defend incompetent decisions by using the “evens out” line when quite clearly it does not 

Of course there is no logic to that as I said. That said this gets aired every season and the notion that it's always us that gets the pooh end of this stick season in, season out is equally nonsense.

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2 minutes ago, Dirkster said:

Of course there is no logic to that as I said. That said this gets aired every season and the notion that it's always us that gets the pooh end of this stick season in, season out is equally nonsense.

 

I don't know about other teams in other games but in the games we've played we have had a large number of big decisions go against us and very few go against our opponents.

 

Even if we had half the points we think we've lost through bad decisions, we'd be in a pretty good place.

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22 minutes ago, OxonOwl said:

 

I don't know about other teams in other games but in the games we've played we have had a large number of big decisions go against us and very few go against our opponents.

 

Even if we had half the points we think we've lost through bad decisions, we'd be in a pretty good place.

It's the fact that we always feel hard done by season after season that I'm getting at. I'm sure that most fans of other clubs have the same perennial gripes.

 

 

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Luck DOES even out over a long period.   In 2015-16 season when we got to Wembley, we seemed to get loads of luck.  The two main exceptions were the ridiculous Forestieri sending offs at Preston and Hull.   Plus, in the final, Michael Dawson could have walked for chopping FF in the first half.  

This season we should have had 4 or 5 penalties minimum.  We haven't had any.  

We would have been in the top six this season had luck been going our way.  

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12 hours ago, qantas said:

 

 

Man Utd....you're talking utter rubbish.

 

Promo in1991....I'll counter that with not getting promotion the first season 3pts for a win came in, if it had still been 2pts we'd have gone up, in any events both scenarios are ridiculous, it's the same for everyone when a season starts.

 

Ched Evans....don't make me laugh, if he hadn't cheated on his girlfriend & been charged with something(guilty or not)he would almost certainly have left the Blades in January, so if anything him being a fwit benefited the Blades.....however, one game he DID play in was the game at Hillsborough, as it turned out they only needed to draw that game, where were his scoring boots that day.

 

Hartlepool....seen pens given for a lot less than that, plus, if the Monkey Hangers had been good enough they would have won it in extra time.

 

 

Point I was trying to make is that fans tend to remember the unlucky scenarios and forget when luck goes our way.  

It's the same with all fans of every club.

I'm struggling to remember any luck we've had this season though.  

We aren't playing as well as I know we can, but we would be in the top six if a few decisions had gone our way.  

 

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On 03/10/2017 at 21:31, londonowl said:

 

Hmm, I'm no bookie but I will do my best for you.

 

Its all about the Bell Curve innit. Standard deviation for 1000 coin tosses (2 possible outcomes) would be 

 

1/2 x Square Root of 1000=16 (sigma).

 

Using Bell Curve, 68% of the time, the results would fall within the standard deviation so approximately two-thirds of the time, the result would be between 484 and 516. 

 

95% of the time, variation would be within 2 sigma (32) so 19 times out of 20, you would get somewhere between 468 and 532 heads.

 

To your original question the probability of getting 500 heads +/-20 is around 78%. 20 is 1.25 sigma (16x1.25=20) and the Bell Curve shows probability of getting within a 1.25 sigma range to be 78% or thereabouts.

 

Should be clear as mud now.

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks.  I knew there was a formula for working luck out, but I couldn't remember how it worked.  Bookies would understand it.  I'm too thick. 

So I posted 4 or 5 examples where I thought we might have had luck in big games and got rubbished for it.  

So where have we had good luck?

I've been going since 1958 and can only remember bad luck.  Starting with the 1960 semifinal when 3 offside decisions went against us.  Then the following season when we were on the verge of greatness and Catterick walked out on us.  Same with Atkinson 30 years later   And I was at Wembley in 66 when Young slipped. 1986 and 1991 we would have been in Europe, but for the Heysel ban, which was Liverpool's fault.   Cantona. Chris Woods 1993.   I could think of 50 big bad luck moments. 

 

So are we the unluckiest team ever or do we just think that because we are fans?

Someone tell me where we've been lucky in the last half a century please, because apparently my examples are ridiculous.  Have we ever been lucky when it's mattered?  

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14 minutes ago, Lincs Owl said:

Thanks.  I knew there was a formula for working luck out, but I couldn't remember how it worked.  Bookies would understand it.  I'm too thick. 

So I posted 4 or 5 examples where I thought we might have had luck in big games and got rubbished for it.  

So where have we had good luck?

I've been going since 1958 and can only remember bad luck.  Starting with the 1960 semifinal when 3 offside decisions went against us.  Then the following season when we were on the verge of greatness and Catterick walked out on us.  Same with Atkinson 30 years later   And I was at Wembley in 66 when Young slipped. 1986 and 1991 we would have been in Europe, but for the Heysel ban, which was Liverpool's fault.   Cantona. Chris Woods 1993.   I could think of 50 big bad luck moments. 

 

So are we the unluckiest team ever or do we just think that because we are fans?

Someone tell me where we've been lucky in the last half a century please, because apparently my examples are ridiculous.  Have we ever been lucky when it's mattered?  

'69 / '70 season it seemed like we got poor decisions given against us almost every match. I know the team wasn't terrific but had those decisions been given as they should have been then we wouldn't have had that cold , wet , heartbreaking night against Man City as we would have been well safe from relegation.

 

When the officials repeatedly and consistently give blatantly wrong decisions against you it does make you wonder. And yer man above only knows what it does to the players' mental state and attitude towards the game. It really must be soul destroying for them.

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4 hours ago, Lincs Owl said:

Luck DOES even out over a long period.   In 2015-16 season when we got to Wembley, we seemed to get loads of luck.  The two main exceptions were the ridiculous Forestieri sending offs at Preston and Hull.   Plus, in the final, Michael Dawson could have walked for chopping FF in the first half.  

This season we should have had 4 or 5 penalties minimum.  We haven't had any.  

We would have been in the top six this season had luck been going our way.  

Really, I'd love to know which games this luck was in. I can't remember any although I can't recall much not going our way (apart from the ludicrous FF sendings off)....maybe that's now classed as good luck if we don't have any bad luck!!lol

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I think it was possibly a point gained last night as we could easily lost Loovens very early in the game. Penalty seemed clear to me so nothing gained or lost there.

 

6-8 points lost now.

 

Should be on 31-33 points.

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