Guest starrydave Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Hi All, It's turned out to be a bit of a boring Sunday, so I spent a few minutes putting together some projections and estimates on how the league is going to shape up. The first one is probably the one that most people have worked out for themselves, which is a projection of final league position taking into account a teams points per game ratio. This corrects current league position for games in hand etc. The only difference this really makes is that MK Dons and Colchester switch positions. Sheffield Wednesday remain in 9th. Now, the next one is a little more complicated, and I have adjusted teams points per game ratio for their remaining games to adjust for changes in circumstances. This is then used with the remaining games to see how many points they could/should get by the end of the season. Key changes, I think Brighton are due a dip, and will see points/game for the second half drop to 1.75. I think Southampton will see an increase to 2. I think that we should also be able to achieve a 2 ppg ratio. I also think Peterborough will do better with DF back at the helm. With this ratio, we would finish third, all other teams being equal. Infact, to get automatic promotion with these estimates, we would need a ppg ratio of 2.3 - which means that the second half of our season would have to be the equivalent of a 100 point season!!! I know this assumes that Southampton have a much better second half of the season, but even if they dont (which most people think they will), then Huddersfield could do the same and cause the same problems. Do you reckon there's still a chance of autos? It would take an AMAZING second half of the season to achieve it I reckon... Not sure whether Irvine has it in him, but I genuinely hope he does. UTO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattitheowl Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So what you are saying is that you took a wild guess and produced 2 tables that mean absolutely nothing. Get the football on the TV mate! Just not bothered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRADDAZ Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So in summary. We're playing for a play off place as we've already blown automatic. Not rumbleing good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest starrydave Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 (edited) @ Matti - Utterly useless yes Just a bit of fun mate - but it does highlight the kind of form that we will need to achieve if we are to win promotion - and that is probably '100 point season' form. Edited January 16, 2011 by starrydave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest starrydave Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So what you are saying is that you took a wild guess and produced 2 tables that mean absolutely nothing. Get the football on the TV mate! and im not at home so cant watch the footy! gutted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEnchanter Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 (edited) Good research but it all means nothing. At the end of the season none of us will remember all the crazy predictions we make throughout the season. I think with us strengthening and having Huddersfield and Charlton games out of the way we will be up and around the top 4. It will be close but I believe we can do it. Just not so confident if we finish in the play offs that Irvine is a good enough motivator. Edited January 16, 2011 by OwlTheEnchanter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest starrydave Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Good research but it all means nothing. At the end of the season none of us will remember all the crazy predictions we make throughout the season. I think with us strengthening and having Huddersfield and Charlton games out of the way we will be up and around the top 4. It will be close but I believe we can do it. Just not so confident if we finish in the play offs that Irvine is a good enough motivator. I certainly wont remember them either. I worry about us if we get into the play offs though - hopefully our squad will be so good by then we will crush the opposition - but either way we are likely to have to play one of hudders, southampton, brighton or peterborough who could cause us some right trouble. We HAVE to get automatic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safesurfer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The second table is entirely pointless as it is pure speculation. What you should have done is worked out the points-to-games ratio for home and away matches and then projected this according to how many home and away games each team has left. This will particularly affect Southampton for example, as they have only played 10 away matches so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sotonowl Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 100 points/season for the second half isn't going to happen I don't think.Hills now have Southampton as favourites at11/8 with Brighton at 6/4,Huddersfield at 7/1 and Wednesday at 16/1 the same as Charlton.Can't see anyone finishing above Southampton now myself,they had a poor start and have now got their act together. The only way we can catch one of these is if Brighton blow up which they could do.Play offs I reckon for Wednesday though and it would be nice to beat Huddersfield in the final. Good topic though. UTO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safesurfer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 (edited) Southampton as favourites at11/8 Southampton are going to be without Lallana for 6-12 weeks - and 5 out of their next 6 league games are away (7 out of their next 9). In total, they have 13 away games to come, and only 9 at home. They also have to play Man Utd in the cup, which will surely serve as a distraction. I can easily see them dropping a few places by the end of February. Brighton are a lot better than they are given credit for and will almost certainly finish in the top two. Edited January 16, 2011 by safesurfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sotonowl Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Southampton are going to be without Lallana for 6-12 weeks - and 5 out of their next 6 league games are away (7 out of their next 9). In total, they have 13 away games to come, and only 9 at home. They also have to play Man Utd in the cup, which will surely serve as a distraction. I can easily see them dropping a few places by the end of February. Brighton are a lot better than they are given credit for and will almost certainly finish in the top two. Believe you me,I don't want Saints to finish above us.I haven't looked at the stats but they do seem to get better results away from home,0-0 yesterday and won 0-6 in the week.My point was that the bookies odds are usually a good indicator on how things will pan out and looking at the odds,Saints win it with Brighton second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safesurfer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 They do seem to get better results away from home,0-0 yesterday and won 0-6 in the week. 6-0 was just a one-off result - and it was a strange game in that according to reports Oldham created a lot of chances too. The score apparently flattered Southampton a bit - 3-1 or something would have been a more accurate reflection. Southampton still have a better points to games ratio at home than away - which is why I was saying to starrydave that he should have taken home and away games into account in his projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyowl Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Clutching at straws! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest S.W.F.C Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Guys done good, spent some time doing his tables, i took at read at them. you lot slate him, typical morons! I say well done mate they make a good read, and you right second half of the season needs to be awesome to make atomatic, but I have a feeling brighton will stay were they are, and the rest will be up and down! Will shall see tho! Up the Owls!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sotonowl Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Guys done good, spent some time doing his tables, i took at read at them. you lot slate him, typical morons! I say well done mate they make a good read, and you right second half of the season needs to be awesome to make atomatic, but I have a feeling brighton will stay were they are, and the rest will be up and down! Will shall see tho! Up the Owls!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You haven't been paying attention buddy,I said in my first post that it was a good topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EcclesallOwl Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Believe you me,I don't want Saints to finish above us.I haven't looked at the stats but they do seem to get better results away from home,0-0 yesterday and won 0-6 in the week.My point was that the bookies odds are usually a good indicator on how things will pan out and looking at the odds,Saints win it with Brighton second. Brian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sotonowl Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Brian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest totemowl Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm very disappointed that you couldn't get us into an automatic promotion spot. StarryDave OUT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goh Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I like the reasoning. Only thing is this is football :) Look how Norwich went bezerk second half of last season. Made about an 18 point swing on Leeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anglers owl Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Hi All, It's turned out to be a bit of a boring Sunday, so I spent a few minutes putting together some projections and estimates on how the league is going to shape up. The first one is probably the one that most people have worked out for themselves, which is a projection of final league position taking into account a teams points per game ratio. This corrects current league position for games in hand etc. The only difference this really makes is that MK Dons and Colchester switch positions. Sheffield Wednesday remain in 9th. Now, the next one is a little more complicated, and I have adjusted teams points per game ratio for their remaining games to adjust for changes in circumstances. This is then used with the remaining games to see how many points they could/should get by the end of the season. Key changes, I think Brighton are due a dip, and will see points/game for the second half drop to 1.75. I think Southampton will see an increase to 2. I think that we should also be able to achieve a 2 ppg ratio. I also think Peterborough will do better with DF back at the helm. With this ratio, we would finish third, all other teams being equal. Infact, to get automatic promotion with these estimates, we would need a ppg ratio of 2.3 - which means that the second half of our season would have to be the equivalent of a 100 point season!!! I know this assumes that Southampton have a much better second half of the season, but even if they dont (which most people think they will), then Huddersfield could do the same and cause the same problems. Do you reckon there's still a chance of autos? It would take an AMAZING second half of the season to achieve it I reckon... Not sure whether Irvine has it in him, but I genuinely hope he does. UTO if its raining can we add in the DUCKWORTH / LEWIS in as well, then we may just squeeze in !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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