Certainty

[Guest MrsGoggins]

THE CASE FOR THE PROSECUTION - 1 - A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CHAMPIONSHIP 2007-12

As of 14/11/12 Sheffield Wednesday lie 20th in the nPower Championship league season 2012-13 table with a points tally of 15 after playing 16 games. 35% of the league season has been played. An average of 0.94 points per game has been attained.

Lets look at what has happened statistically over the previous 5 years in the Championship.

Season 2007/08

Relegated clubs:

Leicester City (22/24), Sflaphorpe United (23/24), Colchester United (24/24)

Leicester City:

After round 16 as we have just completed. Leicester City had 20 points. (1.25 ppg)

A new manager Ian Holloway had just been appointed. There had been a succession of managers that early season (4).

Martin Allen until 29 Aug 2007. from only 13 Sep 2007 until 24 Oct 2007 and Gerry Taggart from 25 Oct 2007 until 22 Nov 2007. All this under the chairmanship of a Mr. Milan Mandaric.

Leicester finished the season with 52 points. An average of 1.13 points per game.

Sflaphorpe United:

After round 16 Sflaphorpe United had 20 points. (1.25 ppg)

Manager Nigel Adkins was manager before and after for the entire season.

Sflaphorpe finished the season with 46 points. An average of 1 point per game.

Colchester United:

After round 16 Colchester United had 17 points. (1.06 ppg)

At the end of that season they had amassed 38 points. An average of 0.83 points per game.

Geraint Williams was the manager throughout this period in the clubs history.

ANALYSIS: WEDNESDAY WOULD HAVE BEEN RELEGATED BOTH ANALYSING FORM AFTER 16 GAMES AND LOOKING AT THE POINTS PER GAME (PPG) FIGURES FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON OF THE TEAMS COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT PPG LEVEL. ONLY LEICESTER CITY HAD A TURNOVER OF MANAGERS. NOT JUST ONE MANAGER AT THAT! THE OTHER 2 CLUBS DIDN’T CHANGE THEIR MANAGER.

Season 2008/09

Relegated clubs:

Norwich City (22/24), Southampton (23/24), Charlton Athletic (24/24)

Norwich City:

After round 16 Norwich City had 17 points. (1.06 ppg)

Glenn Roeder was manager until 14 Jan 2009.

Norwich ended that season with 46 points or an average of 1 ppg.

Southampton:

After round 16 Saints had 16 points. (1 ppg)

Jan Poortvliet was manager until 23 Jan 2009.

Southampton ended that season with 45 points (0.98 ppg).

Charlton Athletic:

After round 16 Charlton Athletic had 16 points. (1 ppg)

Manager Alan Pardew was fired shortly after and replaced by Phil Parkinson it didn’t save them from relegation.

The Addicks finished the season with a points tally of 39 points (0.85 ppg).

ANALYSIS: The Owls would just have faced relegation looking at the ppg figures and after 16 games have a worse points tally than the three relegated clubs had at that point.

Only Charlton Athletic changed their manager around this stage of the season but to no avail. The other two clubs held on until January again to no avail.

Season 2009/10

Relegated clubs:

Sheffield Wed (Boo) (22/24), Plymouth Argyle (23/24), Peterborough United (24/24)

Sheffield Wednesday (2010):

After round 16 we had gained 17 points. (1.06 ppg)

Manager Brian Laws was fired on 13th Dec 2009. Replaced by Alan Irvine 8th Jan 2010 for the remainder of the season.

Final league table showed the Owls on 47 points (1.02ppg).

Plymouth Argyle:

After round 16 - 15 points (0.94 ppg)

Manager Paul Sturrock fired on 10 Dec 2009 after 18 games. Replaced immediately by Paul Mariner for the remainder of the season.

Final league position was 41 points gained. (0.89 ppg).

Peterborough United:

After round 16 – only 11 points! (0.69 ppg) At last someone worse than us.

Manager Darren Ferguson replaced by Mark Cooper? On 16 Nov 2009. 16 Nov was just after round 16 of league games. He was only in the job until 01 Feb 2010 and Jim Gannon replaced him for the remainder of the season.

Final league position was 34 points gained (0.74 ppg).

ANALYSIS: At last a club in worst dire straits on the pitch than us (Peterborough United). There ppg figures are both worse than ours. Their managerial changes (compare to Leicester City in 2007/08) didn’t improve their position.

Waiting until round 18 for change didn’t save Plymouth Argyle who was under Paul Sturrock in a similar position to us by the looks of it?

We all know that Brian Laws was fired too late and replaced by a complete numpty.

However we were in a slightly better position after round 16 looking at the history books (or web pages!).

Season 2010/11

Relegated clubs:

Preston North End (22/24), Sheffield United (23/24) – yippee, Sflaphorpe United (24/24) – again! A warning?

Preston North End:

After round 16 - 14 points (0.88 ppg)

Manager: Darren Ferguson (again!) until 30 Dec 2010. After a short caretaker manager ship of David Unsworth Phil Brown took over for the remainder of the season after being appointed 6 Jan 2011.

End of season stats: 42 points (0.91 ppg).

Sheffield United:

After round 16 - 19 points (1.19 ppg)

Manager: Gary Speed until 14 Dec 10. John Carver had a short caretaker stint from 15 Dec 10 – 30 Dec 10 followed by Micky Adams for the rest of the season.

End of season: 42 points (0.91 ppg).

Sflaphorpe United:

After round 16 - 20 points (1.25 ppg)

Manager: Ian Baraclough 12 Sep 2010 – 16 Mar 2011 Alan Knill for remainder of the season.

End of season: 42 points (0.91 ppg)

ANALYSIS: We might have just escaped relegation if we improved or even maintained our current form! It was a poor league this season with all three relegated clubs having equal end of season records! The Sflaphorpe manager Ian Baraclough never managed before or after.

Preston NE might have just waited to long to change their manager?

Season 2011/12

Relegated clubs: Portsmouth, Coventry City, Doncaster Rovers

Portsmouth: (deducted 10 points after entering relegation – so I’m looking at team above Barnsley)

Barnsley:

after round 16 – 18 points (1.13 ppg)

Manager: Mark Robins all season.

End of season: 48 points (1.04 ppg)

Coventry City:

After round 16 – 12 points (0.75 ppg)

Manager: Andy Thorn all season.

End of season: 40 points (0.87 ppg)

Doncaster Rovers:

After round 16 – 12 points (0.75 ppg)

Manager: Until 22 Sep 2011 Sean O’Driscoll followed by Dean Saunders for the remainder of the season.

End of season: 36 points (0.78 ppg)

ANALYSIS: Again what a poor league this season with some shocking ppg figures. Very little managerial movement. We would have just been relegated last season without a Portsmouth style administration by another team of course saving us.

OVERALL: The league seems to be getting worse in terms of final performance. Aside from Leicester in 2007/08 and Peterborough in 2009/10 who had several managerial appointments for different reasons it seems that slightly delaying firing the manager until January doesn’t seem to improve performance significantly if at all.

Our current ppg level is totally unacceptable and would have led to relegation in all but one season from the past five.

_{This article was originally published in blog: THE CASE FOR THE PROSECUTION - 1 - A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CHAMPIONSHIP 2007-12 started by WednesdayMad}

http://www.owlszone.com/content.php?268-THE-CASE-FOR-THE-PROSECUTION-1-A-STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS-OF-THE-CHAMPIONSHIP-2007-12

[Almat]

Edited as I misunderstood the post above.

Edited November 19, 2012 by Almat

[Dagmeister]

So apart from been poo in defence, not creative enough and cant score we are ok......

Yep

[OxOwl]

were going down

[Tommo_]

Don't mistake assertiveness and certainty for fickleness and naivety