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Just 16 Goals Conceded so far, but there is a but...


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6 minutes ago, Tamworthowl said:

If, repeat, if, two points per game is a guarantee of auto promotion, then we are doing fine.

 

Beat the bottom 16 home and away and we would end the season on at least 96 points. 7 goals in 14 games against the bottom 18 teams (not sure what it is for the bottom 16) suggests that we shouldn’t be too far off achieving that: we’ve only dropped four points so far (2 draws), but picked up 5 against the top 8. So we’re ahead of the game. 


Beating Shrewsbury is more important that getting points off Derby (that’ll be a bonus). The defence is doing fine. If anything, it’s the lack of goals against the lower teams (Bristol Rovers, Lincoln), teams that can defend well, that’s costing us. 

2 points a game isn't a guarantee of promotion, if all the teams continue as they are now, at the end of the season we would average more than 2 points a game, and still finish in third, behind Ipswich and Plymouth.

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32 minutes ago, Grants Left Boot said:

But then on the flipside, three of those were in a brand new defence on the opening day of the season.  Would that be the same result now? Probably not.  And two of those 9 were when we were playing with 10 men against Peterborough  If James hadn't been sent off, would that have been the score?  If there had been a few more minutes left to play against Ipswich could we have got the winner?

 

It's all its and buts. 

 

But just looking at league games only, we are third, 1 point behind automatics, 11 wins out of 18 which is a 61% win rate.  6 away wins out of 9 (67% winrate). Plus we have the best clean sheet rate in league one at 50%.  Lost once at home and only failed to score in 2 out of 18 games.  1.89 goals scored per match and 0.89 conceded each match.

 

Nothing wrong with those stats   🙂


I was going to make the same points about the Portsmouth and Peterborough games. 
 

Very happy with our defence this season, especially given the injuries to Ben and Famewo.

 

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Wigan smashed the league with 92 points last season and only won 2 of their 10 games against the rest of the top 6. I'd gladly take being crap against the teams around us while lifting the champions trophy next year.

 

We've generally been pretty good at stepping up our game against the top teams for several years, not just doing the double over Wigan last year, but also thinking back to beating Newcastle twice while they ran away with the Championship. Our biggest problem for years has been trying to pick up consistent points against the teams struggling towards the bottom, and so far we seem to have got a solution for that this season. We're not far off.

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I don’t see why people are criticising this. You’re allowed to enjoy how we are doing whilst looking for ways to improve.

 

If you don’t, you stagnate.

 

Its a valid point. High scoring games against our rivals. Both teams trying to win. Some time it’ll work, sometimes it won’t. Can we improve? Maybe. Worth talking about.

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32 minutes ago, royalowlisback said:

2 points a game isn't a guarantee of promotion, if all the teams continue as they are now, at the end of the season we would average more than 2 points a game, and still finish in third, behind Ipswich and Plymouth.


I agree totally, but whenever I’ve questioned this “2 ppg gets you autos mantra” I’m hit with “Plymouth / Ipswich will have a bad run”, “they don’t have the squad depth for a difficult winter”. And, to be fair, both have recently lost a player for the season.

 

Just a month ago there were five (or was it 6) teams on 2ppg, now it’s three. I think it’s a fair assumption that come May there’ll only be two. Whatever, my point stands, that beat the bottom 16  consistently and we’ll get autos. So 7 goals conceded so far is a good thing, whilst conceding more against the top teams isn’t as critical.

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1 hour ago, Grants Left Boot said:

But then on the flipside, three of those were in a brand new defence on the opening day of the season.  Would that be the same result now? Probably not.  And two of those 9 were when we were playing with 10 men against Peterborough  If James hadn't been sent off, would that have been the score?  If there had been a few more minutes left to play against Ipswich could we have got the winner?

 

It's all its and buts. 

 

But just looking at league games only, we are third, 1 point behind automatics, 11 wins out of 18 which is a 61% win rate.  6 away wins out of 9 (67% winrate). Plus we have the best clean sheet rate in league one at 50%.  Lost once at home and only failed to score in 2 out of 18 games.  1.89 goals scored per match and 0.89 conceded each match.

 

Nothing wrong with those stats   🙂

QED

 

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1 hour ago, Tamworthowl said:


I agree totally, but whenever I’ve questioned this “2 ppg gets you autos mantra” I’m hit with “Plymouth / Ipswich will have a bad run”, “they don’t have the squad depth for a difficult winter”. And, to be fair, both have recently lost a player for the season.

 

Just a month ago there were five (or was it 6) teams on 2ppg, now it’s three. I think it’s a fair assumption that come May there’ll only be two. Whatever, my point stands, that beat the bottom 16  consistently and we’ll get autos. So 7 goals conceded so far is a good thing, whilst conceding more against the top teams isn’t as critical.

We both sort of agree, but it is still on the assumption that the top 2 drop more points than us, and if either of them beat us later on in the season, then it makes our task even harder.

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We will definitely want to sign some defenders in Jan. Hennegan being out all season is a loss for his arial ability and we could do with an extra left footer even if Famewo does come back IMO. If we want automatic promotion we have to overtake and stay ahead of our rivals. I think the opportunity to strengthen in Jan will give us the edge over Plymouth, who are probably as likely to lose players as they are sign them. Ipswich will also be looking to improve in Jan, particularly up front, and clubs like Derby and possibly Peterborough will also be looking to add to their squad. Just patting ourselves on the back for being third isn’t going to cut it. We have to continually improve if we are going to get out of L1. 

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5 minutes ago, royalowlisback said:

Don't think anyone wants that.

But just looking at league games only, we are third, 1 point behind automatics, 11 wins out of 18 which is a 61% win rate.  6 away wins out of 9 (67% winrate). Plus we have the best clean sheet rate in league one at 50%.  Lost once at home and only failed to score in 2 out of 18 games.  1.89 goals scored per match and 0.89 conceded each match.

 

Nothing wrong with those stats   

 

 

Now compare that to the rantings about Moore and the team on here this season

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17 minutes ago, daveyboy66 said:

But just looking at league games only, we are third, 1 point behind automatics, 11 wins out of 18 which is a 61% win rate.  6 away wins out of 9 (67% winrate). Plus we have the best clean sheet rate in league one at 50%.  Lost once at home and only failed to score in 2 out of 18 games.  1.89 goals scored per match and 0.89 conceded each match.

 

Nothing wrong with those stats   

 

 

Now compare that to the rantings about Moore and the team on here this season

Still doesn't mean people want Wednesday to lose.

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The problem is that we are creating our own problems. How many times have we messed up playing the ball out from the back ? . The defence is looking stronger now Lorfa is playing better, James also has helped out as has Palmer. Our other problem that is putting pressure on the defence is that we are not scoring enough, no killer instinct. One goal is not enough !

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