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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, parajack said:

Get ready for more of the same though I hope I am completely wrong

If we get more of the same, we will get autos, his recent points tally (since the new year) is way above what is needed for that. 

Edited by Daizan10
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4 minutes ago, Daizan10 said:

They made a smart decision and are run by people who could see the win 5, then lose 5 of there old manager wasn't going to cut it. We are run by a Tuna merchant who hired Jos Luhukay then lurched from manager to manager all of whom played different ways - then complained cos a man who has always played direct football, played direct football. IF he sacked Moore there is every chance he could hire the man who ran his tinning factory or his gardener - and we'd end up screwed. Right now, lets get stability and hope for an injury free season, so Moore has a proper go at it. 

It’s his mess created and his loss of 14 million quid this season and the same next 28 million lost in 2 seasons TV money. Up to him to get us back to the Championship

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1 minute ago, Daizan10 said:

If we get more of the same, we will get autos, his recent points tally (since the new year) is way above what is needed for that. 

Next Year will be just as hard mate maybe harder but I hope your right and ime wrong

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4 minutes ago, 83owl said:

Forest green will be a tough game next season. Good team.

See what I mean? Levelling down gets you nowhere that’s where we went wrong We going to pick out team and tactics to combat FGR than?

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We were all over the shop after we scored our goal - couldn’t tell whether we wanted to go for it or wait for extra time, it was evident Sunderland we’re ready for extra time - they were on their @rse and weren’t pressing us up top. 
 

We committed players into extra time of the 90 minutes and left ourselves wide open. 5 men in their half and they caught us. 

17FA44B5-2DE6-42F8-82F4-3FF1B963B3EA.png

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Something I've cobbled together in my lunch break using some online data, just for a visual representation. It shows the direction the team has been going in at the time of each managerial sacking since Carlos came in (the green spot to differentiate Bruce's decision to walk out). The orange curve being the rough average trajectory (ignoring the sudden steep peaks/troughs spanning each summer break).

 

With the exception of Jos being replaced with Bruce, the managerial changes have all failed (and it can be argued that Pulis wasn't given enough time anyway). Right now we've actually got the curve going back upwards again, at long last. Changing the manager now would be one of the dumbest things the club could possibly do, and yet there are lots of fans who are calling for exactly that.

 

SWFC_graph.thumb.jpg.75e188274d7d65f54a2ebe3f3b5538a0.jpg

 

The data in early 2021 looks a bit different than the reality because - presumably - it doesn't take the points deduction into account, but for this graph it actually works better because it's a more accurate look at the performance. The first part of DM's tenure also looks worse than reality as dropping a division and then taking a few games to average out at the beginning of the new season will appear extreme (unless we'd started the season with a near-perfect record).

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52 minutes ago, parajack said:

Those who critique DM ARE just as much behind the team and Club as those who feel he has done a reasonable job No one in ANY walk of life has the right to ask for unconditional support Football is a results based Industry and EVERY manager enters it knowing that Sunderland replaced their manager when they sat 3rd in a play off spot

And if Darren Moore gets the same results he has got for us in the last five months, next season we will be promoted in first or second. So, I can only assume you are behind keeping Moore in place.

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8 minutes ago, punkskaphil said:

Something I've cobbled together in my lunch break using some online data, just for a visual representation. It shows the direction the team has been going in at the time of each managerial sacking since Carlos came in (the green spot to differentiate Bruce's decision to walk out). The orange curve being the rough average trajectory (ignoring the sudden steep peaks/troughs spanning each summer break).

 

With the exception of Jos being replaced with Bruce, the managerial changes have all failed (and it can be argued that Pulis wasn't given enough time anyway). Right now we've actually got the curve going back upwards again, at long last. Changing the manager now would be one of the dumbest things the club could possibly do, and yet there are lots of fans who are calling for exactly that.

 

SWFC_graph.thumb.jpg.75e188274d7d65f54a2ebe3f3b5538a0.jpg

 

The data in early 2021 looks a bit different than the reality because - presumably - it doesn't take the points deduction into account, but for this graph it actually works better because it's a more accurate look at the performance. The first part of DM's tenure also looks worse than reality as dropping a division and then taking a few games to average out at the beginning of the new season will appear extreme (unless we'd started the season with a near-perfect record).

And we are a Fivision lower after being relegated and failing to achieve an automatic promotion spot not arching a play off Final. Your graphs don’t show that do they? Or the class of opposition no variable is there? Only maybe 4 or 5 clubs with a big enough budget quality of player to Warrent an equal comparison Of course your graph looks better we have played a season with mainly Championship level players on Div 3 !!

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5 minutes ago, Daizan10 said:

And if Darren Moore gets the same results he has got for us in the last five months, next season we will be promoted in first or second. So, I can only assume you are behind keeping Moore in place.

I am indeed said he should have another season

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Just now, parajack said:

And we are a Fivision lower after being relegated and failing to achieve an automatic promotion spot not arching a play off Final. Your graphs don’t show that do they? Or the class of opposition no variable is there? Only maybe 4 or 5 clubs with a big enough budget quality of player to Warrent an equal comparison Of course your graph looks better we have played a season with mainly Championship level players on Div 3 !!

Class of opposition is irrelevant, as you are always playing at your level. 

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17 hours ago, Steve1212 said:

How many managers do we need to go through, massive points deduction, massive squad overall… 

 

I think that since Channers has been here he's brought some very good players to the club for the level we've being playing at, and this season it's been no different.

 

The problem has been his managerial appointments, however, and not knowing when to stick and to twist.

 

We were undone by a better manager last night, one who had the nous to tactically nullify us.

 

Alex Neil is Sunderland's Dave Jones.

 

Someone who's managed at a much higher level and has the confidence which goes with that experience.

 

I'd like us to make a clean break and go for someone like that, and that's probably what Mandy would do too in these circumstances.

 

The Moorists need not worry, though, because it won't happen.

 

We''l probably have to wait until next January for that.

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15 minutes ago, punkskaphil said:

Something I've cobbled together in my lunch break using some online data, just for a visual representation. It shows the direction the team has been going in at the time of each managerial sacking since Carlos came in (the green spot to differentiate Bruce's decision to walk out). The orange curve being the rough average trajectory (ignoring the sudden steep peaks/troughs spanning each summer break).

 

With the exception of Jos being replaced with Bruce, the managerial changes have all failed (and it can be argued that Pulis wasn't given enough time anyway). Right now we've actually got the curve going back upwards again, at long last. Changing the manager now would be one of the dumbest things the club could possibly do, and yet there are lots of fans who are calling for exactly that.

 

SWFC_graph.thumb.jpg.75e188274d7d65f54a2ebe3f3b5538a0.jpg

 

The data in early 2021 looks a bit different than the reality because - presumably - it doesn't take the points deduction into account, but for this graph it actually works better because it's a more accurate look at the performance. The first part of DM's tenure also looks worse than reality as dropping a division and then taking a few games to average out at the beginning of the new season will appear extreme (unless we'd started the season with a near-perfect record).

 



Also shows and proves that Garry Monk was the best option of success we have had since the Premier League


But all you lot hounded him out

 

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Owlstalk Shop

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, parajack said:

And we are a Fivision lower after being relegated and failing to achieve an automatic promotion spot not arching a play off Final. Your graphs don’t show that do they? Or the class of opposition no variable is there? Only maybe 4 or 5 clubs with a big enough budget quality of player to Warrent an equal comparison Of course your graph looks better we have played a season with mainly Championship level players on Div 3 !!

 

Or in other words - change the parameters until I get the outcome I want. Not exactly a scientific approach. There is of course always a wider context, but the graph from a few posts ago is quite illuminating. It is not invalidated just because you don't like it.

 

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2 minutes ago, Athelwulf said:

 

I think that since Channers has been here he's brought some very good players to the club for the level we've being playing at, and this season it's been no different.

 

The problem has been his managerial appointments, however, and not knowing when to stick and to twist.

 

We were undone by a better manager last night, one who had the nous to tactically nullify us.

 

Alex Neil is Sunderland's Dave Jones.

 

Someone who's managed at a much higher level and has the confidence which goes with that experience.

 

I'd like us to make a clean break and go for someone like that, and that's probably what Mandy would do too in these circumstances.

 

The Moorists need not worry, though, because it won't happen.

 

We''l probably have to wait until next January for that.

 

Let me repeat myself...

 

The overnight genius of Neil was so good that he'd been out of work for almost a year. Hardly a surprise given that he was asked to leave Preston following them being  an underwhelming 11th and 16th in the Championship. Since going to Sunderland, their record has been a tiny fraction WORSE than our's. And even though we were well below par and played into his hands, he still needed an injury time goal to squeeze by us. What if we had actually mustered an earlier goal last night? What price your master tactician then? The fine margins of football.

 

I just don't get the psychological need that some people seem to have to distort reality like this, no matter how many times the illusion is introduced.

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26 minutes ago, punkskaphil said:

Something I've cobbled together in my lunch break using some online data, just for a visual representation. It shows the direction the team has been going in at the time of each managerial sacking since Carlos came in (the green spot to differentiate Bruce's decision to walk out). The orange curve being the rough average trajectory (ignoring the sudden steep peaks/troughs spanning each summer break).

 

With the exception of Jos being replaced with Bruce, the managerial changes have all failed (and it can be argued that Pulis wasn't given enough time anyway). Right now we've actually got the curve going back upwards again, at long last. Changing the manager now would be one of the dumbest things the club could possibly do, and yet there are lots of fans who are calling for exactly that.

 

SWFC_graph.thumb.jpg.75e188274d7d65f54a2ebe3f3b5538a0.jpg

 

The data in early 2021 looks a bit different than the reality because - presumably - it doesn't take the points deduction into account, but for this graph it actually works better because it's a more accurate look at the performance. The first part of DM's tenure also looks worse than reality as dropping a division and then taking a few games to average out at the beginning of the new season will appear extreme (unless we'd started the season with a near-perfect record).

 

Really interesting. Thanks.

 

My immediate observation is that with the exception of Bruce, in the short term changing the manager didn't alter our trajectory. Shorter term managers (JL, TP) just continued on the downward trends. GM initially continued the improvement under SB but then peaked and declined (as did Carlos).

 

DM, in the short term, also continued Pulis' downward trajectory, but eventually turned it round, the first manager under Chansiri to do so.

 

What does it mean? I don't really know. But maybe, just maybe the lesson is that a managers influence becomes more apparent given time rather than in the short term.

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Daizan10 said:

Class of opposition is irrelevant, as you are always playing at your level. 

Course it’s not irrelevant and especially if your tactics change each game players play out of position etc Last season we expected to hammer WWand beat Rotherham Why? Because they had come from a Division lower. We had/have a team of mainly Championship level players and were able to recruit players or retained players of a higher standard than those playing their football in the League below plain common sense

Edited by parajack
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42 minutes ago, DJMortimer said:

 

Or in other words - change the parameters until I get the outcome I want. Not exactly a scientific approach. There is of course always a wider context, but the graph from a few posts ago is quite illuminating. It is not invalidated just because you don't like it.

 

I didn’t say change anything did I? You started with a view and looked for the evidence to substantiate it.  It’s subjective ie what constitutes ‘progress’ ‘success’? Their are contrary views to what Darren has achieved both are valid

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46 minutes ago, @owlstalk said:

 



Also shows and proves that Garry Monk was the best option of success we have had since the Premier League


But all you lot hounded him out

 

Ha ha back off the net if only you had been playing last night

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5 minutes ago, parajack said:

I didn’t say change anything did I? You started with a view and looked for the evidence to substantiate it.  

 

Now that is subconscious projection if I ever saw it. You clearly couldn't face giving Moore any credit and instantly set about finding excuses for invalidating the progress we've made, however substantial or otherwise that might be. We're not challenging Liverpool yet, but there's no harm acknowledging that we have at least reversed the downward trend and made some strides forward recently. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, cain said:

And I think you are just delusional and living in fantasy land….try taking the blue glasses off once in a while 

I’m definitely not delusional; I try to consider things from every angle and, front my viewpoint, Moore has done a decent job, we could have finished higher but he had one hell of a job to stop our decline and to turnaround our first team’s apparent default mindset of “we’re going to lose”; so, considering these things, I think he’s done really well.
 

Would I have preferred promotion? Absolutely! But I don’t see losing in the playoffs as an absolute failure or an indication of ineptitude. I believe that Moore has done enough to earn the support of the club and I would hope that sense of support would be extended by the fans also. 

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