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Playing at home second is rubbish, and the bookies don’t seem to think it helps either


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2 hours ago, Taz said:

I agree 

 

but I also think the bookies know better than me 

 

those odds after a home start win show that playing at home first is the advantage 

 

if you don’t agree with this 

 

if any of you are laughing at this….

 

you’d be tripping over yourselves to lump a wedge on McDons at 11/1 as they only have to put one past Wycombe early to DRASTICALLY change the tide…

 

OR

 

are the bookies getting this all wrong? 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

discuss 

 

Do you even know how football betting works? Those are the odds to be promoted, i.e. win the playoffs outright. Bookies have Wycombe and Sunderland as favourites purely because they're currently leading the ties, with Wycombe edging it because they have a 2 goal lead.  For the second legs the same bookies will have Wednesday and MK as favourites to win those games in 90 minutes on the night. 

 

And if Wycombe and Sunderland both progress, Sunderland who are second favourites will instantly become favourites. And if Wednesday and Wycombe get through we'll move from third favourites to favourites. This is why bookies make money, because they constantly change the odds in their own favour. 

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57 minutes ago, Sova said:

But the Champions League does (in some cases) give teams who finished higher the previous season an advantage. Not for the English teams, who all go into the group stage, but this season Ajax went straight into the group stage, while PSV entered in the 2nd qualifying round. Lille and PSG went straight to the group stage; Monaco entered at the 3rd qualifying round. Zenit St Petersburg went straight to the group stage; Spartak Moscow entered at the 3rd qualifying round. Rangers entered in the 3rd qualifying round, Celtic in the 2nd. And so on.

4th and possibly 3rd in the prem used to mean you had to play qualifiers but can’t remember what year that changed, think it’s more than 10 years ago

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2 hours ago, alanharper said:

 

Do you even know how football betting works? Those are the odds to be promoted, i.e. win the playoffs outright. Bookies have Wycombe and Sunderland as favourites purely because they're currently leading the ties, with Wycombe edging it because they have a 2 goal lead.  For the second legs the same bookies will have Wednesday and MK as favourites to win those games in 90 minutes on the night. 

 

And if Wycombe and Sunderland both progress, Sunderland who are second favourites will instantly become favourites. And if Wednesday and Wycombe get through we'll move from third favourites to favourites. This is why bookies make money, because they constantly change the odds in their own favour. 

Nah I don’t know a lot about it 

 

that’s why I’m asking about it 

 

everyone’s just being nasty to me it’s mental lmao 

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So the play off’s hate us?

some nutter expects us to buy half n half scarves wi red in em?

sag won’t let us fill the ground?

Inflatable bananas are racist?

we are one down from the first leg?

and Taz say’s the bookie’s are against us?

Brilliant, bring on Monday night and our fantastic run back to the championship continues.

come on Wednesday smash em 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Taz said:

I agree 

 

but I also think the bookies know better than me 

 

those odds after a home start win show that playing at home first is the advantage 

 

if you don’t agree with this 

 

if any of you are laughing at this….

 

you’d be tripping over yourselves to lump a wedge on McDons at 11/1 as they only have to put one past Wycombe early to DRASTICALLY change the tide…

 

OR

 

are the bookies getting this all wrong? 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

discuss 

these odds DON'T show that playing at home first is an advantage.  they show that being ahead after the first leg is an advantage, obviously....

 

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8 hours ago, Rotherham Owl said:

 

Then Wigan should start next year on plus 3 points, Rotherham plus one and us a getting in through the play-offs 0.

 

If Man City win the Premiership they should go straight to the semi-final of the Champions League as it wouldnt be fair for them to be treated the same as 4th place

 

You are talking rubbish

so are you my friend

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7 minutes ago, duncanidaho said:

these odds DON'T show that playing at home first is an advantage.  they show that being ahead after the first leg is an advantage, obviously....

 

But 

 

if! 
 

it was an advantage, given we’re only 1 down

 

or given that mk are 2 down but are far better than Wycombe and playing at home 

 

then the odds seem off 

 

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6 hours ago, Sova said:

But the Champions League does (in some cases) give teams who finished higher the previous season an advantage. Not for the English teams, who all go into the group stage, but this season Ajax went straight into the group stage, while PSV entered in the 2nd qualifying round. Lille and PSG went straight to the group stage; Monaco entered at the 3rd qualifying round. Zenit St Petersburg went straight to the group stage; Spartak Moscow entered at the 3rd qualifying round. Rangers entered in the 3rd qualifying round, Celtic in the 2nd. And so on.

the champions league doesn't give an advantage to TEAMS who finish higher in the previous season.  it has a co-efficient of how teams from a country has finished in the previous 5 seasons.  we get 4 teams in the group stage because we have done well over the previous 5 seasons.  if we were to have some bad seasons, we would enter in the qualifying stages or even lose a place and only have 3 teams in the champions league

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3 minutes ago, Taz said:

But 

 

if! 
 

it was an advantage, given we’re only 1 down

 

or given that mk are 2 down but are far better than Wycombe and playing at home 

 

then the odds seem off 

 

no.  if mk were 2 down at home to wycombe at half time, they wouldn't have favourable odds of winning the match.  its similar over two legs

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6 hours ago, alanharper said:

 

Do you even know how football betting works? Those are the odds to be promoted, i.e. win the playoffs outright. Bookies have Wycombe and Sunderland as favourites purely because they're currently leading the ties, with Wycombe edging it because they have a 2 goal lead.  For the second legs the same bookies will have Wednesday and MK as favourites to win those games in 90 minutes on the night. 

 

And if Wycombe and Sunderland both progress, Sunderland who are second favourites will instantly become favourites. And if Wednesday and Wycombe get through we'll move from third favourites to favourites. This is why bookies make money, because they constantly change the odds in their own favour. 

do you even know how football betting works?

bookies don't show the TRUE odds of something happening, they show the odds at which they think they will make money.   if people lump on a result that the bookies will lose money on, they trim the odds.  NOT because they think that will be the result, but because of punters opinions who bet on it and they want to reduce risk.

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3 minutes ago, duncanidaho said:

the champions league doesn't give an advantage to TEAMS who finish higher in the previous season. 

 

Yes it does (in some cases, as I said). To take just one of the numerous examples I gave, Rangers won the 2020/21 Scottish Premiership, so they entered in the 3rd qualifying round, one round later than Celtic, who finished second in the 2020/21 Scottish Premiership. Of course, the round teams enter in also depends on their country's qualifying coefficient.

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10 hours ago, owls maniac said:

If we’d have won 1-0 at home last night would you be confident with us going to the SoL on Monday?

 

This. 

 

If the game was the other way round I would see that as opportunity missed a would be fearing the worst.

 

I think we will win the match by 1 as a minimum on Monday, more than confident we will make it through 

 

All 4 sides of the ground screaming us on will be the difference. Get one and I reckon they will crumble. 

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11 minutes ago, Sova said:

 

Yes it does (in some cases, as I said). To take just one of the numerous examples I gave, Rangers won the 2020/21 Scottish Premiership, so they entered in the 3rd qualifying round, one round later than Celtic, who finished second in the 2020/21 Scottish Premiership. Of course, the round teams enter in also depends on their country's qualifying coefficient.

Celtic were entered in the second qualifying round

Rangers were entered in the third qualifying round

 

Rangers entered one round later than Celtic

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021–22_UEFA_Champions_League#Qualifying_rounds

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11 hours ago, TheEnchanter said:

Well the last team to win the L1 play offs after losing the first leg is Yeovil and they lost 0-1 away to the pigs in 2013. Lets hope we can do a Yeovil.

I wonder what the stats are on reaching the final in comparison to winning outright? Thing is the first leg advantage is a marker of superiority at a level of football that doesn't reach great heights. So the bar can't be lifted in many cases. But we know we have higher league players in the squad. Sunderland might have some. But it's about those who have played at the higher level to lift the bar in the second leg. It's about individual chats and a reminder to these players that it is expected. There is no alternative. Mindset be right and play to that level. 

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