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1st Leg or 2nd leg at home - Stats


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1 hour ago, McRightSide said:

I’d still rather be needing a result at Hillsborough than anywhere else. 

I think given the choice I’d have gone for being home on a Friday night.

 

All day drinking always makes for a good atmosphere 

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13 minutes ago, marshy said:

If it went to extra time you have an extra 30 mins on your home turf in 2nd leg. I’d prefer that at home than away.

 

True. Shame that didn't help us against Huddersfield though... 🙄

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6 minutes ago, Onge said:

 

True. Shame that didn't help us against Huddersfield though... 🙄

true, please don’t remind me. For me that’s when the manager with the biggest balls put ‘em on the block. 
 

Hope Moore has a serious pair if so. 
lol

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throw of a  coin stuff.

Great work tho on the research. 

Iam glad we at home second leg tho,kinda know what you need to do where you stand etc

UTO 

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13 hours ago, JemmoJemoJemmo said:

I’ve seen lots of people saying it’s an advantage to play your second leg at home.

 

I’ve never felt it to be the case.

 

Indeed, with Wednesday, both times we made the final we were home first leg and the time we didn’t the opposite.

 

Therefore, I’ve decided to have a look.

 

I wanted to make it as much about purely home or away advantage and not about the better teams getting through.

 

Therefore I’ve looked at The Champions Semi Finals as there is no seeding. I’ve also looked at the 4th v 5th teams in the Play offs (5th v 6th League Two) as I would’ve expected 3rd v 6th to have more of a bias towards the better team.

 

I’ve only gone back 15 seasons as to be frank it’d take too long to do any more.

 

Champions League Semi Finals

 

Home 1st leg:- 16 winners

Home 2nd leg:- 14 winners

 

Championship 4th v 5th

Home 1st leg - 7 winners

Away 1st leg - 8 winners

 

League One 4th v 5th

Home 1st leg - 7 winners

Away 1st leg - 8 winners

 

League Two 5th v 6th

Home 1st Leg - 8 winners

Away 1st Leg - 7 winners

 

Conclusion - There is no obvious advantage to be either home or away in the first leg.

 


You come up with some brilliant fact-based threads mate. This one is up there.

 

If I’d had to guess I would have said there’s a reasonable advantage playing away first. That said, Monday night could be a night to savour.

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Posted (edited)

Great topic and research, nice one!

I think this is akin to having games in hand when you hear the phrase "I'd rather have points in the bag" and it's better to have home advantage in the first leg.

 

For me, playing at home first is better because;

 

: You know you have another game to play so there is less pressure.

 

: "Knowing what you need to do" in the second leg doesn't mean you will do it.

 

: If you make the most of being at home in the first leg the pressure is on the opponents for the second.

 

: If you have a result to defend away in the second leg you have the option to "park the bus"

 

...

 

 

Edited by slinger208b
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I'm not sure it matters that much but I'm happy we're at home 2nd leg. Both teams have to play 2 games. Both teams have to play home and away. If we go up there and smash em 4 nil then Monday will be a party (after 88 minutes if we're still 4 up, can't take owt for granted). If we draw then it's a one off game and we have home advantage if that exists. Lose and we have to win to save ourselves. 

 

Obviously all of the above can be turned round and reversed and debated. The past counts for nothing, it's all about Friday and Monday. 

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When you look at the home and away stats of both teams, they’re almost identical.  The thing is we didn’t get going until Xmas whilst Sunderland have been there or there abouts all season. Both teams pretty strong at home, personally I’d rather have the second leg at home.  Nowt to choose between them.

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21 minutes ago, doubleo said:

When you look at the home and away stats of both teams, they’re almost identical.  The thing is we didn’t get going until Xmas whilst Sunderland have been there or there abouts all season. Both teams pretty strong at home, personally I’d rather have the second leg at home.  Nowt to choose between them.


If you take the season from the point we beat Sunderland at home, which to me is when our current style of play started to become apparent, we’ve won the second most points of any team in the division - 1 less than MK and something like 10 more than Sunderland. That should give us confidence.

 

Mind you, they could equally say ‘look how well we’ve done since Neil came in as manager’ - I suspect they’d probably be top of the form table during that period, albeit courtesy of a lot of narrow / late victories

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I'd rather have the second leg at home because unfortunately I wouldn't trust us to play our normal game if we had a 2 goal advantage.

 

We'll still probably be defensive on Friday but not as much if we were already winning the tie.

We would then try to play even more counter attacking, meaning NML up front and our midfield would be congested in our own half and it wouldn't work.

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3 hours ago, GMOwl72 said:

Big problem is if the tie is put out of reach by a terrible away performance in first leg, bit like we did to Brighton who were big favourites. 

The tie wasn’t put out of brightons reach though. They absolutely battered us but we got a lucky equaliser that changed the game

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We were exchanging on another thread about this yesterday. 

 

You can see there is a general view that home advantage is better in the second leg simply from the play off structure. I suspect that most teams would indeed prefer to play away first but an interesting tweak would be to make it a choice. We are above them so we choose which way around.

 

A yet more interesting tweak would be that third place allows you to choose not only home/away ordering but which team you play. So if you come third you could choose to play, say, the fourth place team which has slipped from second and has run out of steam, rather than the sixth place team which has surged. Then fourth place chooses between the two remaining options.

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Ever since Blackburn away semi-final I've always been a fan of playing the first-leg away. Crutches in the air! 

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