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The truth about FORM!


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Having heard a few comments about the play-off contenders and their opponents' form going into the last weekend, I thought I'd take a closer look at the stats 🤓


I've taken an average of the points per game for each teams' last 4, 6, 8, 10 & 12 games, and the last 4, 6 & 8 Home/Away games.... mainly because I could easily find that info (Science, that is! 🤪).


Conclusions:

 

  • Based on Overall Form, our game looks the tightest, closely followed by Plymouth (V MK Dons), with the home side shading it in both cases. Sunderland and Wycombe look like odds on favourites.

 

  • But taking home advantage into account by looking at Home Form Vs Away Form in each fixture, we look like the most comfortable victors by some distance. Plymouth should also win their game, but Sunderland and Wycombe could be up against it playing away from home.

 

  • If we look for a bit of balance by taking an average of the two, we are still the clearest winners, with Sunderland and Wycombe also looking likely to take the spoils. Plymouth V MK Dons looks likely to be a draw.

 

  • Outside of the stats, the fact that Sunderland and Plymouth both play sides that are desperate for points themselves should, theoretically, make their games tougher. But, it doesn't always work like that because some teams step up when the pressure is off while others phone it in.

 

  • In summary, who knows?! 


 

What's your prediction?
 

L1 Form.jpg

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Just now, George Whitebread said:


That's my gut feeling too.... and what the stats suggest.

Given Rotherham's awful form, MK Dons will know that it's more than a shot in the dark. 

 

Win at Plymouth and they've got a more than decent chance of grabbing automatic. 

 

It is quite remarkable how the form of the top three has gone awry in the last month or so. Wigan look set to go up as champions and haven't won in at least 5! 

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Worrying about Portsmouth's form is what made me look into it.

And I'm glad I did because our home form is so much stronger than their away form that I can't help feeling that a packed Hillsborough will see us over the line.

It also made me realise that the other three games are probably closer than I'd initially assumed.

A good psychologist would probably point out that putting this together is a strong sign of anxiety though. So, I'm obviously not THAT confident.

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The 3 points at Fleetwood were so crucial on Tuesday. We now are in the driving seat where defeat would have left us as favourites to miss out This league has been so close all season. Who would have thought Oxford would just fall away in last 6 weeks after looking certainties for playoffs.

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31 minutes ago, ZicoSterland2 said:

The 3 points at Fleetwood were so crucial on Tuesday.

Absolutely spot on.

that's why I and many others went into a mental flounce meltdown WTF: after going 2 - 1 down and playing crap lol
And then, the chosen one did us proud lol God ( short for Gregory ) , popped up

Edited by quinnssweetshop
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4 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

But once you factor in that form is temporary, class is permanent, we get promoted no matter what...right?

 

:ph34r:

 

In theory yes.......But, we must still factor in "it's the Wednesday way....." at which point Chaos Theory becomes the prevailing force. 😂

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Us and Wigan are the only two sides whose final games are effectively meaningless for the opposition, which I’m glad of.

 

Cant believe what a favour Rovrum did us banging in that ludicrous own goal on 88min at Sunlun the other night. Even if the Mackems had lost, they could still have caught us on Sat, but MK Dons would’ve fielded an absolute joke side against Plymouth (and likely lost IMO) if Rovrum had won and MK were already consigned to 3rd place. As it stands though, that absolute screamer of an OG means MK have still got to try for autos on Sat, beat Plymouth and hope the fighting-for-survival Gills can scrape a draw at home to the Millers.

 

Crazy league.

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(To be pedantic, even without the own goal MK still could’ve pipped R’ham on the final day with a 7-goal swing, but I think the manager would’ve rested players rather than clinging to that incredibly faint hope. But no way he can do that now, with only a point in it.)

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Last night I had a nightmare where George Hirst banged in an equaliser in the 15th minute of injury time then ran towards the Directors box and ripped his shirt off to reveal a "DO one DC" T-shirt......

 

I know one thing for sure that requires no stats!!! Matchday is going to put us through the wringer, no way it goes straightforward. 

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6 hours ago, OwlerIT2 said:

Great stats George - please let us know what you will be betting on this Saturday.

 

I can't bet this week. I don't want to jinx anything.

 

But, you mentioning that prompted me to check the odds and it seems the bookies concur with my conclusions... 

 

Wednesday are the most likely to win (8/13) Sunderland and Wycombe probably will too (4/5), and Plymouth/MKD is too close to call (31/18 - 12/5 - 30/17).

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