Geörge Whitebread Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 Having heard a few comments about the play-off contenders and their opponents' form going into the last weekend, I thought I'd take a closer look at the stats I've taken an average of the points per game for each teams' last 4, 6, 8, 10 & 12 games, and the last 4, 6 & 8 Home/Away games.... mainly because I could easily find that info (Science, that is! ). Conclusions: Based on Overall Form, our game looks the tightest, closely followed by Plymouth (V MK Dons), with the home side shading it in both cases. Sunderland and Wycombe look like odds on favourites. But taking home advantage into account by looking at Home Form Vs Away Form in each fixture, we look like the most comfortable victors by some distance. Plymouth should also win their game, but Sunderland and Wycombe could be up against it playing away from home. If we look for a bit of balance by taking an average of the two, we are still the clearest winners, with Sunderland and Wycombe also looking likely to take the spoils. Plymouth V MK Dons looks likely to be a draw. Outside of the stats, the fact that Sunderland and Plymouth both play sides that are desperate for points themselves should, theoretically, make their games tougher. But, it doesn't always work like that because some teams step up when the pressure is off while others phone it in. In summary, who knows?! What's your prediction? 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 *the column header that reads "pts...home only" should read home/away only (if that makes sense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiJ Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 I think MK Dons will get something at Plymouth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 *the column header that reads "pts...home only" should read home/away only (if that makes sense). **and the "home sides shade it" after the first bullet point isn't quite right. On overall form, MK would shade it. (it's late!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, SiJ said: I think MK Dons will get something at Plymouth. That's my gut feeling too.... and what the stats suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiJ Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 Just now, George Whitebread said: That's my gut feeling too.... and what the stats suggest. Given Rotherham's awful form, MK Dons will know that it's more than a shot in the dark. Win at Plymouth and they've got a more than decent chance of grabbing automatic. It is quite remarkable how the form of the top three has gone awry in the last month or so. Wigan look set to go up as champions and haven't won in at least 5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@owlstalk Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 Great work mate - thank you for posting this thread It's left my completely bewildered about what might happen tho! 4 3 Owlstalk Shop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 Worrying about Portsmouth's form is what made me look into it. And I'm glad I did because our home form is so much stronger than their away form that I can't help feeling that a packed Hillsborough will see us over the line. It also made me realise that the other three games are probably closer than I'd initially assumed. A good psychologist would probably point out that putting this together is a strong sign of anxiety though. So, I'm obviously not THAT confident. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OwlerIT2 Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 Great stats George - please let us know what you will be betting on this Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inspector Lestrade Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 I reckon if we wait till after the games finish, we will have more idea about the final outcome. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RhodesToNowhere Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Inspector Lestrade said: I reckon if we wait till after the games finish, we will have more idea about the final outcome. I can see why you’re called inspector. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZicoSterland2 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 The 3 points at Fleetwood were so crucial on Tuesday. We now are in the driving seat where defeat would have left us as favourites to miss out This league has been so close all season. Who would have thought Oxford would just fall away in last 6 weeks after looking certainties for playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnssweetshop Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) 31 minutes ago, ZicoSterland2 said: The 3 points at Fleetwood were so crucial on Tuesday. Absolutely spot on. that's why I and many others went into a mental flounce meltdown after going 2 - 1 down and playing crap And then, the chosen one did us proud God ( short for Gregory ) , popped up Edited April 28, 2022 by quinnssweetshop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 But once you factor in that form is temporary, class is permanent, we get promoted no matter what...right? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morepork Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said: But once you factor in that form is temporary, class is permanent, we get promoted no matter what...right? In theory yes.......But, we must still factor in "it's the Wednesday way....." at which point Chaos Theory becomes the prevailing force. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Tom Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Us and Wigan are the only two sides whose final games are effectively meaningless for the opposition, which I’m glad of. Cant believe what a favour Rovrum did us banging in that ludicrous own goal on 88min at Sunlun the other night. Even if the Mackems had lost, they could still have caught us on Sat, but MK Dons would’ve fielded an absolute joke side against Plymouth (and likely lost IMO) if Rovrum had won and MK were already consigned to 3rd place. As it stands though, that absolute screamer of an OG means MK have still got to try for autos on Sat, beat Plymouth and hope the fighting-for-survival Gills can scrape a draw at home to the Millers. Crazy league. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Tom Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 (To be pedantic, even without the own goal MK still could’ve pipped R’ham on the final day with a 7-goal swing, but I think the manager would’ve rested players rather than clinging to that incredibly faint hope. But no way he can do that now, with only a point in it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morepork Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Last night I had a nightmare where George Hirst banged in an equaliser in the 15th minute of injury time then ran towards the Directors box and ripped his shirt off to reveal a "DO one DC" T-shirt...... I know one thing for sure that requires no stats!!! Matchday is going to put us through the wringer, no way it goes straightforward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitcat Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Probably all end up losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geörge Whitebread Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 6 hours ago, OwlerIT2 said: Great stats George - please let us know what you will be betting on this Saturday. I can't bet this week. I don't want to jinx anything. But, you mentioning that prompted me to check the odds and it seems the bookies concur with my conclusions... Wednesday are the most likely to win (8/13) Sunderland and Wycombe probably will too (4/5), and Plymouth/MKD is too close to call (31/18 - 12/5 - 30/17). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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