These late goals then - how bad is it really?

[paulrs]

Our habit of conceding late goals is well discussed, and has come particularly into focus now that we've got ourselves within touching distance of the automatic places. But just how bad a habit is it? And how do we compare to our promotion rivals?

(Spoiler alert: it's not good!)
 

I’ve classed ‘late goal’ as anything from the 80th minute onwards, and have only included ones that cost us points, i.e. an 89th minute consolation in a 4-1 win I’ve just ignored. Here's the detail:
 

Ipswich A 90th minute – 2pts dropped

Oxford H 90th minute – 1pt

Wimbledon A 84th minute – 2pts

Lincoln H 80th minute – 2pts

Cheltenham A 90th minute – 2pts

Oxford A 84th minute – 1pt

Accrington H 83rd minute – 2pts

Bolton A 90th minute – 2pts

Total points lost to late goals – 14 (from 8 goals)
 

Interesting that the first five instances happened within the space of five horrible weeks from 25 September to 30 October. Since then we’ve only conceded three meaningful late goals in 32 games.

I've always viewed the Sunderland home game as a turning point in terms of our formation leading to a more fluent attacking style and better point return. But it also seems that time at the end of October / start of November was the beginning of us reducing the amount of late goals conceded.
 

Now briefly compare that to how many points we’ve won with late goals
 

Cambridge A 80th minute – 1pt won

MK Dons H 83rd & 90th minute – 3pts

Doncaster A 80th & 83rd minute – 2pts

Wimbledon H 90th minute – 2pts

Total points won with late goals – 8 (from 6 goals)
 

So 8 points won versus 14 points lost – not a huge discrepancy although for a team with such an experienced squad gunning for automatic promotion you’d probably expect that to be the other way round.
 

What about our rivals then. Strap yourselves in cos just like the formatting of the table it ain’t pretty.

 

Team               Points won        Points lost

Wigan              12                        6

Rotherham      0                          6

MK Dons         7                          8

SHEFF WED    8                          14

Plymouth        4                           7

Sunderland    13                          7

Wycombe       11                         2

Oxford            15                         3

Some obvious stand-outs from this, namely that Wednesday have thrown away about double the number of points of any of our near rivals. We also don't compare particularly well at scoring late goals - although rather better than Rotherham!

Sunderland's record is boosted by their phenomenal recent run, while it's worth noting that Wycombe have only conceded one meaningful goal beyond the 80th minute all season - Alfie May's 81st minute equaliser in the recent 5-5 game. Let's hope we're not behind going into the last ten minutes on Saturday then.

 

But best of all is Oxford - 15 points won with late goals and only 3 lost, including late winners against us in both fixtures this season.

Just for fun - or is it sadomasochism - here's what the league table would look like if games ended at 80 minutes:

Rotherham - 89
SHEFF WED - 85
MK Dons - 84
Wigan - 82
Plymouth - 82
Sunderland - 71
Wycombe - 68
Oxford - 63

So to answer the question - will these late goals end up costing us automatic promotion? It's not unreasonable to say yes, they will.

If we can take a positive it's that our lamentable record is driven by that bed spell in the autumn where we threw away 9 points in five weeks. But with three - or potentially six - critical games to go you get the feeling late goals will play a part somewhere.

 

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

Yeah, it's pretty bad.

 

More than a quarter of our goals conceded have come after the 81st minute...

 

 

 

[paulrs]

So basically, from minute 1-80 we’re pretty much the best team in the league and from minute 81 onwards we suddenly transform into possibly the worst 

[JemmoJemoJemmo]

This is mostly psychological.

 

Look at the Crewe match on Tuesday. Crewe only had one shot in the whole match and were woeful.

 

Yet we still managed to create a situation where we were panicking and conceding territory, possession and corners in the last 10 minutes.

[Beast of Boulogne]

If mi auntie had ballax she’d be mi uncle 

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

3 minutes ago, paulrs said:

So basically, from minute 1-80 we’re pretty much the best team in the league and from minute 81 onwards we suddenly transform into possibly the worst 

 

Pretty much, yeah.

 

And it's been happening for the past few seasons, too. Well, without the whole 'from minute 1-80 we’re pretty much the best team in the league' bit.

 

 

20/21:

 

 

19/20:

 

 

The question is: why?

[hirstys_achilles]

Brilliant post. I not got time to check the accuracy of the numbers but it looks pretty good to me at a glance. 

What surprises me is the difference between teams. Oxford are very good at shutting teams out for last 10 mins. We are terrible at holding on to leads. We have had more than usual late winners this season. Still not many. 

It's been the same throughout my time supporting Wednesday. We never been able to shut teams out comfortably. We always seem to get referees who won't add enough time on for when we are behind. Yet if we are clinging on to a 1 goal lead. It's written in stone the ref will add 10 mins 

Who will ever forget and cringes every time you see Brian kidd and fergy after Steve Bruce scoring in fergy time

[Mr. Chow]

For me it could be either fitness, I have seen us plod around the pitch compared to teams that are just bombarding us or some strange subs on like bringing slow/ defensive players to make teams come at us more instead bringing somebody on to open a game up and keep going at the opposition 

[paulrs]

23 minutes ago, JemmoJemoJemmo said:

This is mostly psychological.

 

Look at the Crewe match on Tuesday. Crewe only had one shot in the whole match and were woeful.

 

Yet we still managed to create a situation where we were panicking and conceding territory, possession and corners in the last 10 minutes.

It could be psychological, but it could also be fitness - we must have one of if not THE oldest team in the division - or tactical. Or a combination or all three.

 

Whatever it is there’s clearly an issue there for us to compare so badly to all our peers 

[Big Jack]

22 minutes ago, JemmoJemoJemmo said:

This is mostly psychological.

 

Look at the Crewe match on Tuesday. Crewe only had one shot in the whole match and were woeful.

 

Yet we still managed to create a situation where we were panicking and conceding territory, possession and corners in the last 10 minutes.

I think it was  the fans  who were panicking on Tuesday. Crewe didn't look remotely like scoring.

 

[paulrs]

19 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

Pretty much, yeah.

 

And it's been happening for the past few seasons, too. Well, without the whole 'from minute 1-80 we’re pretty much the best team in the league' bit.

 

 

20/21:

 

 

19/20:

 

 

The question is: why?

Interesting, but aren’t most goals scored in that final period of games anyway so for context of how bad WE are you’d have to compare to other teams I think.

 

Also the 81-90 segment gets skewed because it also includes goals scored in injury time so in truth it’s 14, 15 or as we saw at MK a 22-minute long period sometimes!

[JemmoJemoJemmo]

1 minute ago, paulrs said:

It could be psychological, but it could also be fitness - we must have one of if not THE oldest team in the division - or tactical. Or a combination or all three.

 

Whatever it is there’s clearly an issue there for us to compare so badly to all our peers 

I think we psychologically start getting deeper and deeper and there’s a reluctance to just do the dark arts to get the job done.

 

Look at MJ in the 10th minute of injury time at MK, just boot the ball out and get our shape back, do not try and take men on in your own half.

 

When you get into the last few minutes there’s been loads of times when players could just kick it out for a throw near their corner flag and get everybody up to the halfway line. Instead we mess about with it, get tackled in our own half and invite pressure.

[Lime Tree Heros]

There's no doubt that conceeding late goals has cost us points, but one should always be careful when looking at stats like these.

 

If for instance you're a good team who are always leading after 79 mins, then you'll only ever lose points in the last 10 mins - whereas if you're a bad team and always losing after 79 mins, then you can only ever win points in the last 10.

 

I'm sure we'd all be in the former position - points in the bag on 79 mins and hold on, rather than chasing the game.

[Pastor Kidneys]

35 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

Pretty much, yeah.

 

And it's been happening for the past few seasons, too. Well, without the whole 'from minute 1-80 we’re pretty much the best team in the league' bit.

 

 

20/21:

 

 

19/20:

 

 

The question is: why?

 

Those graphs suggest the reason is when we push teams & we're on the front foot we don't concede many.

 

On the other hand as soon as the 80 minute bell rings we sit so deep we're inviting them on and drop deeper & deeper until the inevitable happens. Then we're like blue ar*ed flies trying to claw it back.

 

Good teams are brave and push to kill teams off.

[Lombardo]

39 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

Pretty much, yeah.

 

And it's been happening for the past few seasons, too. Well, without the whole 'from minute 1-80 we’re pretty much the best team in the league' bit.

 

 

20/21:

 

 

19/20:

 

 

The question is: why?

what about 90th to the 100th minute i.e. injury time goals??

[Animis]

The Bolton away goal was particularly disappointing. We'd controlled the game, then half the team gets into an argument with Kachunga deep in their half; we lose shape and they go up field win a corner, and we switch off. It was entirely avoidable, but sadly predictable. The game management at the end of games needs to improve - you watch PL/Champions League and they run the clock down really well.

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

12 minutes ago, paulrs said:

Interesting, but aren’t most goals scored in that final period of games anyway so for context of how bad WE are you’d have to compare to other teams I think.

 

Also the 81-90 segment gets skewed because it also includes goals scored in injury time so in truth it’s 14, 15 or as we saw at MK a 22-minute long period sometimes!

 

We're certainly above the divisional average, and probably contributed a fair bit to it being higher in the first place!

 

 

 

When you compare us to the rest of the top six, our issue with conceding late goals is quite noticeable:

 

Wigan:

 

 

Rotherham:

 

 

Franchise FC:

 

 

Plymouth:

 

 

Wycombe:

 

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

3 minutes ago, Lombardo said:

what about 90th to the 100th minute i.e. injury time goals??

 

I assume they're included in the 81'-90' section.

[bladeshater]

Every team in league could whinge about IFS and BUTS we are where we are on merit get over it

[Harrysgame]

1 hour ago, paulrs said:

So basically, from minute 1-80 we’re pretty much the best team in the league and from minute 81 onwards we suddenly transform into possibly the worst 

Tinkerman time...the last 10 minutes. Or leggy players because of all the injuries or fitness.